❗️НОВАЯ ЯЛТА ИЛИ РАЗДЕЛ РОССИИ? Трамп, пузырь ИИ и ловушка для элит

Summary

Maxim Kalashnikov and Vladimir Lepekhin discuss what they see as a period of mounting global and domestic crisis, and whether Russia can turn international turmoil to its advantage.

AI and digital control

Lepekhin welcomes signs of a downturn in AI-company valuations, arguing that the investment boom has been driven partly by ambitions for global control. In his view, a slowdown could delay the spread of technocratic surveillance and “electronic control” systems. He says technology is being introduced without the social, ethical, and political foundations needed to ensure it serves the public.

Trump and Russia

The speakers reject the expectation that Donald Trump would secure major gains for Russia. Lepekhin portrays Trump as constrained by US political and financial interests, while arguing that Russia’s leadership lacks a coherent long-term strategy and mostly reacts to events. He describes Russia as a regional rather than global power, with limited ability to shape negotiations between major powers.

Geopolitical risks

Lepekhin speculates that tensions around Iran could serve broader US and Israeli aims in the Middle East, including influence over the region and energy routes. The discussion also highlights political divisions in Europe, which Lepekhin interprets as a struggle between EU institutions and parties focused more on national interests. These are presented as his analysis, not established outcomes.

Risk of Russia being sidelined or divided

Both speakers warn that arrangements discussed as a possible “new Yalta” are unlikely, in their view, to amount to an equal settlement with Russia. Lepekhin argues that US and Chinese interests could increasingly compete over Russian territory and resources. Kalashnikov compares the danger to historical periods when weakening states became objects of partition.

Economic and governance concerns

Lepekhin criticizes Russia’s reliance on raw-material exports and points to foreign-based processing and trade hubs as examples of value being created outside Russia. He also raises concerns about deforestation, depopulation in rural regions, and a lack of effective responses to local problems. The speakers argue that technological sovereignty requires control over platforms and production, not just public pledges or spending.

A possible turning point

Kalashnikov warns that Russia could face a severe economic crisis around 2027, while Lepekhin says economic collapse could trigger political upheaval. They draw comparisons with 1917 and the late Soviet period, emphasizing that crisis could lead either to transformation or further decline.

Proposed alternative

Lepekhin argues that Russia needs a new social and economic model rather than minor adjustments to the existing system. He describes this as a post-capitalist “solidarity civilization” that could build on Soviet experience while avoiding its failures. In his closing remarks, Kalashnikov says the post-1991 Russian project has run its course and urges the development of a distinct national vision rather than copying the West.

Presenters and contributors

• Maxim Kalashnikov — presenter
• Vladimir Lepekhin — guest and commentator