NATO Generals Rush To Kiev; Surovikin Directs Dnieper Bridge Strikes; Peskov: Peace Talks Pointless

Ukraine’s Military Situation

Alexander Mercouris argues that Ukraine faces a worsening, cumulative crisis as Russian attacks target infrastructure, logistics, industry, energy supplies, and crossings over the Dnieper River.

He interprets the arrival of a large, unannounced NATO military delegation in Kyiv as a sign of concern about the direction of the war. In his view, Western commanders may be seeking a clearer picture of battlefield conditions and reassurance from Ukrainian officials, while the visit also signals continued support for Kyiv. He questions how useful it can be when, he says, key operational decisions are made at NATO-linked headquarters in Wiesbaden and in Brussels and Washington.

Mercouris says Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian facilities may help Kyiv demonstrate that it can still strike back, but he considers their impact far smaller than that of recent Russian attacks. He also reports that Russian drones may have targeted buildings associated with Ukraine’s SBU security service in central Kyiv.

Dnieper Crossings

Mercouris says several important Dnieper crossings remain damaged or out of service, while acknowledging that he cannot independently confirm their current status. He relays an explanation from an unnamed viewer-source: Russia may be trying to restrict heavy military traffic rather than demolish the bridges outright. This could channel Ukrainian logistics through predictable routes and make retreats or resupply more vulnerable.

The source also claimed that General Sergei Surovikin is an expert in this kind of operation. Mercouris emphasizes that reports of Surovikin’s return to command the campaign remain unconfirmed rumors.

Energy and Missile Programs

Mercouris discusses further Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, including a substation near Kharkiv and infrastructure in the Kyiv area. He also reports power outages in Kharkiv.

Citing Russian media claims, he says the 2024 Oreshnik strike on the Yuzhmash plant was intended to destroy an underground Ukrainian project to develop a ground-launched Neptune missile. He adds that Russia may also be seeking to strike facilities connected with Ukraine’s newer ballistic-missile programs.

Battlefield Developments

Mercouris assesses that Russian forces are tightening the encirclement around Dobropillia and that a Ukrainian counterattack there is losing momentum. He says Ukraine’s Lyman offensive, referred to as “Operation Vivaldi,” appears to have stalled, while Russian advances continue in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.

He rejects the idea that winter will necessarily halt Russian operations. In his account, mud seasons slow movement more than winter itself, and he expects Russian air attacks and ground pressure to continue.

Wider Regional and Economic Concerns

Mercouris points to protests and economic strains in France and Spain, including concern about French debt and the possibility of rising borrowing costs.

He also describes growing risks to oil supplies amid renewed Saudi-Houthi tensions and friction between the United States and Iran, while cautioning that reports about specific attacks and oil flows are difficult to verify.

Diplomacy

Mercouris notes that Russian officials Sergei Lavrov and Dmitry Peskov have said talks are pointless while Kyiv shows no interest in negotiations. He says U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio likewise does not expect negotiations to resume soon.

A proposed call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin did not take place. Mercouris interprets the absence of a call on Putin’s birthday as a possible effort by Moscow to avoid implying that talks were imminent.

He concludes that, despite Western declarations of support for Ukraine, the war appears likely to continue without near-term negotiations.

Presenter and Contributor

• Presenter: Alexander Mercouris
• Other contributors: An unnamed viewer who provided analysis of Russia’s bridge-strike strategy; no other presenters are identified.