Video Summary - Ken Fisher’s 2026 Mid-Year Market Update

Market performance (year-to-date)

S&P/benchmark context: The market is up about 9% year-to-date (as of the recording).
- Applies to both:
  - United States: ~+9%
  - Non-U.S.: ~+9%

Original forecast (beginning of year): a back-and-forth pattern:
- Weaker/“not too strong” first half, and
- Strength building in the second half, especially Q4.
Actual so far: the year is a little stronger in the first half than expected.
- Implied stance: results are “pretty well” matching the broad forecast, though with timing differences.

Fisher references a long-used seasonal tendency:

Framework (as described):
- In a midterm election year, the:
  - back quarter, and
  - first couple of quarters of the third year tend to be quite strong.
Caveat noted: this year may have accelerated earlier than normal because:
- Congressional gridlock is stronger,
- “very little getting through Congress,” implying midterm-related gridlock may have shown up sooner.
Uncertainty: whether this means less strength later (back half) remains “to be seen.”

Key comparison: the tech world in aggregate is doing about 4% better year-to-date than the U.S. as a whole.
Inference Fisher draws:
- Since the tech-heavy U.S. is only ~4% ahead of the total market, and
- non-U.S. is described as having very little tech,
- the result suggests non-tech U.S. is lagging relative to overseas counterparts.
Value-factor context mentioned:
- U.S. value stock world vs the rest of the world (described as predominantly value outside the U.S.).
- Fisher suggests differences in the U.S. tech vs non-tech split and value composition may partly explain the relative lag.

Interest rates: “relatively stable,” matching Fisher’s expectation.
- Implication: rates behaved about as expected, with some things better and some worse.
Euro area / Eurobank policy:
- Fisher didn’t forecast Eurobank would hike in the spring (noted as an out-of-forecast item).
- They add it’s “not the biggest deal in the world.”
Geopolitical risk:
- Fisher also notes they “did not forecast the Iran war,” implying a material surprise not captured in their baseline.

None explicitly stated in the subtitles (no “not financial advice” wording visible in the provided text).

No specific tickers, ETFs, bonds, commodities, or exact sector indices named.
Instruments referenced conceptually:
- Interest rates
- AI-related technology (“tech world”)
- Value stock world
Geographic market references:
- United States
- Non-U.S. / overseas