Encuesta Elecciones: VOX SE DISPARA

Hamalgama Métrica poll for Vozpópuli

The poll projects that the PP would win the November 29 general election with 144 seats, while Vox would double its representation to 68. Together, the parties would hold 212 seats—comfortably above the 176 needed for a majority.

The PSOE is projected to fall to 103 seats, down 18 from 2023. Sumar would drop from 31 seats to five, while Podemos would win two.

Factors behind the projections

The survey points to two factors behind the results:

• Vox is drawing support from the PP, with nearly 13% of the PP’s previous voters reportedly switching to Vox.
• Parts of the left-wing electorate appear likely to abstain. One in five former Sumar voters say they would not vote.

Political context

The survey follows Pedro Sánchez’s call for early elections after his housing decrees were defeated in Congress. Sánchez hopes to make housing a focus of a left-versus-right campaign, but the poll suggests the right currently has a substantial advantage, with Vox the main beneficiary of the government’s decline.

Presenter/contributor: Luis Casal