The Biggest Change to the Housing Market in Years (New Bill PASSED!)

Housing market signals: more inventory, but sales still uneven

• New listings/inventory are rising, which should create more opportunities for investors (more “inventory and opportunity” as supply loosens).
• Despite the inventory uptick, the panel notes pricing pressure and slower demand:
  • Median listing price down ~2.29% (May) and average prices down ~2.9%.
  • 16 straight weeks of annual price decline and 28 weeks of flat-to-down pricing.
  • Active inventory up ~2.3% year-over-year, with pending/absorption rates declining.
• Showing activity is weak overall, but not evenly:
  • Lower-priced homes are moving quickly (the “fly off the shelf” segment).
  • Higher-priced homes are sitting longer; the panel repeatedly mentions very low showing velocity across many price tiers.
• Sellers are reacting by canceling listings (examples cited: cancellations around 14–20 days), suggesting FOMO sellers are testing the market and pulling back when activity is thin.

Why days-on-market and pricing dynamics feel inconsistent

The group points to data that homes are taking about one extra day longer year-over-year, and they try to reconcile it by suggesting buyers may be negotiating/acting faster than in prior cycles. In other words, buyers expect a different market now and may respond earlier with offers rather than waiting longer.

What agents and investors should do in a buyer-leaning market

Core message: this is a buyer’s market, and sellers need to adjust strategy.

• Pricing correctly is emphasized as critical:
  • Pricing must account for higher, more volatile interest rates, not just older comp prices from when financing was cheaper.
• Hire a strong, data-driven agent:
  • The panel argues that “generic” marketing isn’t enough; agents must be proactive and able to explain market metrics (e.g., list-to-sale ratios, inventory levels, buyer vs. seller conditions).
  • Specific tactics mentioned include strategic undercutting of competing listings to win showings.
• Own your pricing and timeline decisions:
  • Don’t do emotional, rapid price drops after a short window; the panel argues that cutting too quickly signals distress to buyers and “gives away money.”

Market timing expectations: “slow summer” and deals may be negotiable

They don’t expect a fast turnaround due to rate volatility and ongoing macro concerns (inflation/Fed/bond market dynamics, consumer stress signals).

• Activity may improve mainly through investor opportunities, especially if sellers become more motivated and willing to negotiate.
• A seasonal pattern is referenced:
  • Labor Day is expected to bring a “jolt,”
  • while the market is otherwise expected to be slow through summer, then slow again into early winter.

Agents leaving the profession: fewer agents, and the “80/20” reality

• A Wall Street Journal–style point (as discussed by Henry/James) claims agents are quitting during the slowdown.
• The panel cites a membership decline for the National Association of Realtors from ~1.6M to ~1.4M over four years (about 200,000 fewer).
• They reinforce the 80/20 rule:
  • 20% of agents do ~80% of deals.
• Advice to investors: find the repeat performers
  • Henry and James recommend identifying high-volume/repeat-client agents by asking title companies and using local referral networks.
  • Dave adds that top agents provide proactive deal analysis rather than just generic drip feeds—agents should help narrow the best opportunities quickly.

“What to ask an agent” checklist (key themes)

• Don’t hire an agent who immediately just agrees with your target price—buyers need honest communication.
• Ask what the agent is specifically doing to sell the property (marketing alone is not enough).
• Ask about tangibles: expected showing counts, strategy to generate offers, and how they manage communication and outreach.

Washington update: bipartisan housing bill passes the House—moves to the president

Henry covers the biggest federal housing item mentioned:

• The bipartisan housing bill (part of the 21st Century Road Housing Act, per the subtitles) cleared the House and is headed to the president for signature.
• House vote count referenced: 396–13 (with interest expressed about who voted no and why).

Major provisions highlighted

• Institutional investor restrictions:
  • Limits investors owning 350+ single-family homes from buying additional homes.
  • Panel suggests the impact may be limited because big institutional actors allegedly aren’t doing this heavily already.
• Build-to-rent rule change:
  • Developers no longer have to sell build-to-rent communities after 5–7 years; they can retain them as build-to-rent.
• FHA lending reforms:
  • Easier FHA financing for mobile homes.
  • Changes also include easing lending for mortgages under $100,000 (lower barriers for smaller loan amounts).

Panel consensus

• The bill is not a “magic pill” (doesn’t directly lower mortgage rates or force prices down immediately).
• But they view it as meaningful supply-side progress, plus improved affordability access for specific buyer segments.

Supply-side expectations: federal help vs. local/state reality

• They argue many housing constraints are local permitting and bureaucratic processes, so outcomes depend heavily on state and city execution.
• Examples discussed include:
  • Cost/time friction from permitting,
  • environmental/seismic requirements,
  • utility-related requirements,
  • fees and development charges framed as creating delays rather than building capacity.
• Still, they see the bill as a positive precedent (even if uneven or slow to impact).

Investor takeaway from state taxes: property taxes and insurance can dominate returns

Kathy’s segment (Kiplinger story) focuses on affordability rankings driven by property tax burden:

• Investors must look at total carrying costs, not just headline purchase price and a simple rent rule.
• Key point: states with low property tax rates may still have high tax bills if property values are high (example: California’s tax structure vs. assessed values).
• West Virginia is cited as #1 for lowest property tax bills.
• They also discuss that Alabama may have a low tax rate, with the distinction between rate vs. actual bill.

Rules of thumb are less reliable now

Henry argues traditional cash-flow heuristics (e.g., rent-to-price) increasingly miss major variables like insurance and taxes, which are diverging by region.

• Insurance availability/cost (including yes/no insurability) is portrayed as a crucial differentiator now.

Practical tax strategy: contest assessments

Henry adds a how-to:

• Property taxes are often contestable with comps evidence.
• Homeowners (and investors) shouldn’t assume tax increases are final; appeals sometimes reduce bills.
• Another caution: check how often property taxes are reassessed—in some places it may be every few years, causing a “surprise” spike later.

Presenters / contributors

• Dave Meyer
• Kathy Fecky
• Henry Washington
• James Dard