Geo-Strategy Update #10: I Was Wrong. The Democrats Take Congress.

Summary

Professor Jiang acknowledges that he was wrong in his predictions about Brazil’s election, Alberta’s independence referendum, and the US midterms. He says his “predictive history” approach requires revising forecasts when new information changes his analysis, rather than sticking to earlier predictions.

Jiang had expected nationalist forces to gain ground. To explain the Brazilian result, he points to the growth and mobilization of evangelical voters, social-media microtargeting that he believes favored Bolsonaro, and voter frustration with Lula’s government. Lula’s subsequent win in the runoff led Jiang to reconsider how much influence globalist political forces still have.

He had also expected stronger support for Alberta independence, but says the vote reached only about 20%. After revising his view, he predicted Democrats would take Congress. He says they did so in what he describes as a “blue tsunami,” winning the House, Senate, and most governorships, and turning Texas purple.

Looking ahead, Jiang expects Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer to cooperate with the Trump administration rather than focus on impeachment or major domestic reforms. He argues that Democrats depend on donors and that Trump’s unpredictability gives him leverage. Jiang expects public clashes and congressional investigations, but predicts behind-the-scenes cooperation on defense, the Iran war, and economic policy. These are his interpretations and forecasts, not independently established conclusions.

Main Predictions and Arguments

• AI companies: Jiang says a weakening petrodollar system is undermining the financial conditions that sustained the AI boom. He predicts the government will step in to support major AI firms and data-center investment, potentially with aid as large as $2 trillion.
• Israel and defense policy: He expects Congress to approve the NDAA, which he argues would formalize US-Israeli high-tech defense cooperation and give Israel access to parts of the US military budget.
• Iran: He predicts that major US escalation will pause until the new Congress takes office, but says the conflict could intensify afterward. He forecasts that US ground troops could be in Iran by March, and says Congress may either authorize the action or allow it to proceed without stopping it.
• Stablecoins and US debt: Jiang expects Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which he says would establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins backed by US Treasury bonds and help attract financing for US debt.
• Epstein files and political leverage: He argues that Democrats may avoid forcing a confrontation over the files because disclosure could harm prominent Democrats, while Trump may be less vulnerable. He predicts congressional investigations into Trump officials will generate political theater but not seriously damage Trump.
• Possible summit: Jiang expects Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping to meet in Shenzhen at an APEC-related summit. He speculates they could discuss ways to resolve the Iran and Ukraine wars, but predicts geopolitical pressures will ultimately prevent lasting peace.

Future Project

Jiang says he is preparing a future series about the occult, including Kabbalah and Jacob Frank. He hopes to begin filming in January or February and release the series by the following spring.

Presenter

Professor Jiang