De Onde Virão os Cortes Prometidos por Flávio Bolsonaro? - JK Cast #276

Summary

José Kobori argues that the large spending cuts proposed by Flávio Bolsonaro would likely affect lower-income people, despite campaign denials that the minimum wage and pensions are at risk. Kobori says the campaign has not explained where it would find the roughly R$250–300 billion in savings it has discussed. He doubts that cuts to ministries could account for that amount and argues that cuts to tax breaks for large companies or support for agribusiness are unlikely.

Based on past austerity measures and the campaign’s earlier statements about reviewing pension and labor rules, Kobori predicts pressure on social programs, health and education, the minimum wage, and pensions.

Minimum-wage gains

Kobori compares real minimum-wage gains across governments:

• Lula’s first two terms: 53.7%
• Dilma Rousseff’s presidency: 15.3%
• Michel Temer’s presidency: a 0.3% loss
• Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency: 1.2%
• Lula’s third term through 2026: 11.5%

He says Bolsonaro’s 1.2% increase amounted to about R$14 in real terms over four years.

Kobori also points to Argentina under Javier Milei as a warning. He claims the minimum wage there lost about 40% of its real value and that austerity measures harmed poorer households. He notes that Flávio’s economic coordinator has spoken favorably of Milei’s model.

Potential effects on women

Kobori says women could be particularly affected because they are more likely to rely on low wages, pensions, and public care services. He cites figures showing that 40% of employed women earn up to the minimum wage and that women earn an average of 27% less than men, with a larger gap in the North and Northeast.

He also says women receive 56.4% of INSS benefits and that more than eight million women receive age-based pensions. Cuts to childcare and other services, he argues, could limit women’s ability to work, since women do more unpaid household work on average.

Citing Argentina as another example, Kobori says women made up most of those left without pensions after the pension moratorium ended and that the retirement age for women was raised there.

Market reaction and public spending

Kobori attributes the market’s enthusiasm after Flávio’s first-round lead to investors’ expectations of fiscal tightening. He argues that pressure to reduce public spending tends to fall on social programs rather than tax advantages for wealthier interests. He contrasts proposed cuts with the R$1.1 trillion in interest payments he says Brazil made over the previous 12 months.

Presenters and contributors

• José Kobori — Presenter and commentator
• Ariane Correia — Listener whose question about the economic impact on women was featured