Will Gold's Rally Hold Or Crash Next? Trader Reveals New Targets | Gary Wagner

Focus

Markets, investing, macro drivers, company/product mentions, methodology, key numbers, and recommendations/cautions.

Assets / Instruments / Sectors Mentioned

• Precious metals: Gold (physical), Silver
• Energy: Crude oil (WTI)
• Equities: S&P 500, NASDAQ
• FX / Rates: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), Fed funds rate / Federal Reserve policy
• Income product: Monetary Metals gold leasing platform (yield paid in physical gold)
• Tools / data sources: Daily candlestick charts, TradingView (Lux Algo Elliot Wave)

Key Market Moves & Numbers

• WTI crude oil:
  • Fell to about $83/barrel (from ~ $106 “just last week”).
  • Earlier spike above ~$119/barrel; intra‑discussion low noted near $79.
• Gold:
  • Approaching ~$4,900/oz at time of discussion.
  • All‑time record high above ~$5,600 on Jan 29.
  • Declined to about $4,100 mid‑March (≈21% drop in under two weeks from ~5,200 to ~4,100), then ~18% recovery in ~3 weeks to >$4,800.
  • Long rally from mid‑August (~$3,400) to $5,600 (≈ +$2,200).
• Silver:
  • All‑time high above ~$120/oz.
  • Rally from ~$46 to $120 (~165% gain); corrected down to ~$63.
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
  • Moved from over 100 to about 96.97 (~3% decline) over recent weeks.
• S&P 500:
  • Noted as having closed above 7,100 points (per subtitles).
• Monetary Metals product:
  • Advertised yield up to 4% annually, paid monthly in ounces (physical gold), redeemable.

Methodology & Frameworks

Primary framework: Elliott Wave (Gary’s approach)

1. Identify motive phase (waves 1–5) versus corrective phase (A‑B‑C).
2. Interpret the January top and subsequent decline as a completed five‑wave motive to the ATH, followed by an A‑B‑C correction that bottomed around $4,100.
3. Treat the restart as a new motive phase (primary wave 1), then project:
   • Wave 3 should go above ~$5,200.
   • Final wave 5 should finish above the prior ATH (~$5,600).
4. Expect corrective waves 2 and 4 inside the new motive phase; timing is indeterminate (Elliott Wave prioritizes price structure over time).

Technical complements

• Fibonacci retracement: the March fall bottomed just below the 61.8% retracement of the Aug→Jan move.
• Use daily candlestick charts and Elliott Wave plotting tools (Lux Algo on TradingView) to validate counts.

Macro Linkage & Interpretation

• Oil and dollar moves are key drivers for gold:
  • Higher oil → higher inflation → typically bullish for gold.
  • Lower oil → reduced inflationary pressure → tailwind off gold.
• Dollar weakness (~3% decline) is supportive for gold.
• Oil can act as a leading indicator of Fed reaction; spikes in oil historically preceded Fed tightening moves in 2022.
• The recent oil spike was characterized as delivery/disruption driven (e.g., Strait of Hormuz). If shipping/delivery normalizes, oil should fall.

Income Generation on Gold (Monetary Metals)

• Lease gold via Monetary Metals platform to earn yield paid in ounces (up to 4% annually), with monthly accrual.
• Metal remains in the investor’s asset base and is redeemable at any time.

Key Interpretations, Forecasts & Cautions

• Structural forecast (Gary):
  • The ABC correction is believed complete and a new motive phase is underway for gold.
  • Target: within roughly 3–4 months (could be longer or shorter), final fifth wave should exceed the prior ATH (~$5,600); wave 3 should take gold above ~$5,200 en route.
  • Short term: possible local top; corrective waves (2 and 4) will occur — not a straight parabolic rise.
• Silver:
  • Expected to follow gold and also reach new ATH given its stronger percentage behavior; historically outperformed gold on the prior rally (noted ~50%+ outperformance).
• Oil / Fed dynamics:
  • Persistent high oil (driven by delivery constraints) could push the Fed to maintain or raise rates; oil historically led Fed moves in 2022.
  • If supply and shipping normalize, oil prices should retreat.
• Market behavior note:
  • Recent unusual correlations — gold and equities rising together, gold rising with falling oil — are attributed to uncertainty and flows; current behavior departs from classical correlations.
• Local inflation example (Hawaii):
  • Higher retail prices, with electricity and gasoline notable; island dependence on shipping amplifies price effects.

Key Dates & Timeline References

• Jan 29: Gold ATH > $5,600.
• Mid‑August → Jan: Rally from ~$3,400 to ~$5,600.
• Late Feb → March: Steep correction; A‑B‑C sequence with B finishing ~March 3 and C ending ~March 23 (per chart commentary).
• March 20: Prior interview referenced; mid‑March bottom and subsequent recovery discussed.

Performance & Volatility Notes

• Gold displayed high intraday volatility; cited example: open ~5,450 to close ~4,049 on a single day (“Friday the 30th” referenced).
• Silver produced larger percentage returns and larger drawdowns over the same cycles.

Tools & Indicators Referenced

• Daily candlestick charts (continuous contract for gold).
• Fibonacci retracement (61.8% level highlighted).
• Elliott Wave counts via manual plotting and Lux Algo Elliott Wave on TradingView.

Risks, Caveats & Disclosures

• Elliott Wave is not a precise timing tool; time to completion is uncertain.
• Technical models can be out of sync with fundamentals; markets may produce atypical correlations.
• The transcript did not include a formal regulatory “not financial advice” disclaimer; sponsor ad presented product details but not a regulatory disclosure in the provided subtitles.

Presenters & Sources

• Gary Waggner — editor, thegoldforecast.com (primary interviewee/analyst)
• Interview host: David
• Sponsor: Monetary Metals (gold leasing product)
• Tools/sources referenced: TradingView (Lux Algo), Reddit (Hawaii subreddit referenced)

Key takeaway: The technical read (Elliott Wave plus Fibonacci) suggests an end to the corrective phase for gold and the start of a new motive advance, with targets above ~$5,200 (wave 3) and a final push above the prior ATH (~$5,600). Expect intermittent corrective waves and meaningful volatility; macro drivers (oil, dollar, Fed policy) remain important wildcards.