Tomtrades CBR Model Simplified | XAUUSD Backtest

Summary

The video simplifies Tom Trades’ CBR gold-reversal model into a rules-based setup for XAUUSD (gold), using the U.S. dollar’s price action as a directional cross-check. The presenter says Tom Trades has claimed the model made him $1.2 million, but notes that this claim is unverified. The video’s own backtest is preliminary and does not prove future performance.

Simplified Setup

1. Set a higher-timeframe bias. Review recent price action on the 1-hour chart. Look for gold and the dollar to move in opposite directions: gold rising while the dollar weakens, or vice versa. If they move in the same direction or the bias is unclear, consider skipping the session.

2. Trade a specific window. Focus on the second hour of the Asian session, rather than London. The session indicator is set to 00:00 UTC for the Asian session start. The presenter notes that the chart time needs a daylight-saving adjustment—typically 8:00 p.m. or 9:00 p.m. in the example’s chart settings, depending on the time of year. Tokyo time (UTC+9) is suggested to avoid daylight-saving confusion.

3. Wait for a clear impulse. Require roughly 20 or more minutes of movement in one direction without significant pullbacks. Slow, sideways action does not qualify.

4. Look for the reversal setup. Price should take liquidity around the first-hour high or low, or rebalance a recent range, then form a Type 3 reversal: manipulation or a liquidity sweep followed by a market-structure break.

5. Enter on a retracement. Look for an entry around the 50% pullback of the move that caused the structure break. The presenter uses the 45%–55% zone as a practical midpoint area. The stop is generally placed beyond the recent swing extreme.

6. Set targets. The basic target is around 1.5R, often near the equilibrium or rebalancing level of the recent move. The presenter sometimes tests larger targets but says they should be evaluated with a larger sample.

7. Limit attempts. Take no more than two attempts per session, and stop looking for trades once the time window has passed. Do not force a setup.

A 30-minute-candle liquidity sweep is presented as a potentially useful additional confirmation, especially when price rebalances a range without taking the first-hour extreme. The presenter suggests testing whether requiring this confirmation improves results.

Optional confirmations discussed include decisive engulfing candles, higher-timeframe unbalanced ranges, SMT divergence, a new-week opening level, and the Supertrend indicator. These are not all required by the simplified version.

Backtest Observations and Reported Metrics

• The presenter tested a small, approximately month-long sample and reported being up about 11.6R in that segment. An earlier point in the test was about +3.5R.
• The final analytics covered 22 trades. The presenter described the win rate as nearly 70%, with an average result of about 2R and a reported 4.45 return ratio. The video cautions that this ratio may be inflated by the small sample.
• The hourly-liquidity-breakout entry category (“input trigger one”) reportedly had a 69% win rate.
• Elsewhere, the presenter characterizes the observed win rate as roughly 60–70%. Trades lasted about 30 minutes on average, with losing trades generally shorter.
• The presenter estimates roughly 5–10 trades per month, or around two per week, while trading only about one hour per day. Some weeks may have very few opportunities.
• Individual examples included exits around 1.5R, 1.66R, 1.7–1.8R, 2R, 2.6R, and 3.3R. Some winners could have produced much more if held for continuation; one example was said to have reached 11R if held to new lows. These are examples, not typical or guaranteed outcomes.

Risks and Cautions

• The sample is limited. The presenter recommends testing 100–200 trades before treating the reported statistics or reward-to-risk profile as reliable.
• Correct directional bias alone is not enough: several sessions had the right bias but no valid entry, and other setups lost.
• Trades may fail when gold and the dollar lack clear inverse correlation, when the market is choppy or late in the session, or when a higher-timeframe range still needs rebalancing against the trade.
• Some entries were described as aggressive or late. The presenter suggests testing optional filters, including a required 30-minute liquidity sweep and lower-timeframe confirmation; the latter could add complexity.
• Larger “runner” targets may improve results in strong trends but require separate testing and may involve more risk or give back open profit.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The presenter frames the video as educational strategy testing and repeatedly recommends further testing rather than relying on the small sample.

Assets, Instruments, and Concepts Mentioned

• XAUUSD / gold
• U.S. dollar (discussed as a market counterpart; no specific dollar ticker is named in the subtitles)
• 1-hour, 30-minute, 1-minute, and 5-second chart timeframes
• Concepts and tools: CBR, CRT, Type 3 reversal, market-structure break, liquidity sweep, Fibonacci retracement, FVG, SMT divergence, Supertrend, and FX Replay’s risk-reward simulator

Presenters and Sources

• Presenter: FX Replay channel host; no individual presenter name is given in the subtitles.
• Strategy/source discussed: Tom Trades (also referred to as Tomtrades)
• Platform used for testing: FX Replay