Тимур Сулейменов: о войне на Ближнем Востоке, курсе тенге и инфляции | Exclusive | 08.04.2026

High-level summary (business focus)

• Speaker: Timur Suleimenov (interview).
• Interviewer: unnamed.
• Other referenced individuals/institutions: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink; National Bank of Kazakhstan; Ministry of Finance; Debt Management Office; Unified National Pension Fund (ENPF / NPF); National Fund; Halykbank; AIFC; KASE; EBRD; Citi; Goldman Sachs; JP Morgan; Mubadala; ADIA; Prosecutor General’s Office; several global financial institutions.

Key strategic themes

• Macro coordination
  • Tight, coordinated monetary–fiscal policy between the National Bank and government (joint roadshows, debt office collaboration, joint communication) to anchor inflation expectations and reduce sovereign yields.
• Risk management and cushions
  • Maintain and optimize large safety buffers (gold & FX reserves, National Fund) to absorb shocks while balancing liquidity and income generation.
• Gradual, pragmatic reform
  • Avoid rapid liberalization (e.g., sharp tariff or fuel-price reforms) that could re‑ignite inflation. Pursue restrained, staged adjustments.
• Structural development & diversification
  • Promote higher domestic production and market‑led diversification rather than state‑directed industrial projects; use current revenues prudently to avoid “resource curse” effects.
• Financial‑sector reprioritization
  • Rebalance bank lending away from high‑growth consumer lending toward business/SME lending to support productive investment and reduce household over‑indebtedness.
• Digital & capital markets modernization
  • Implement a digital tenge (programmable fiscal transfers), legalize/regulate crypto exchanges, and promote tokenization to democratize fundraising and expand market infrastructure.

Frameworks, processes and playbooks

• Debt management office + coordinated issuance playbook
  • Joint investor outreach (Ministry of Finance and National Bank roadshows) to reduce long‑term yields and diversify demand away from domestic pension fund dependency.
• Regulatory sandbox for digital assets
  • About 30 projects operating; full regulatory framework targeted by end of May.
• Digital tenge / smart‑contract fiscal controls
  • Programmable transfers to enforce procurement/subcontracting rules and improve traceability/tax compliance. Target issuance scale ~1 trillion tenge (this year).
• ENPF (pension fund) portfolio shift (strategy 2026)
  • Move from heavy government bond exposure toward more equities and alternatives; small allocations to higher‑growth/crypto‑related infrastructure funds under consideration.
• Reserve‑mix optimization
  • Active review to shift from currently high gold share (~70–75%) toward a more balanced mix with liquid, income‑generating FX instruments over time.
• Consumer‑lending macroprudential measures
  • Legislative and regulatory steps (including an additional capital buffer) to cool consumer credit and encourage banks to expand business lending.

Key metrics, KPIs and targets

• Inflation
  • Annual CPI: peaked around ~12.7–12.9%, currently about 11%.
  • Monthly inflation: declined from ~+1.1% to 0% in March.
  • Official target: reduce inflation to single‑digit levels this year (presidential instruction).
• Base rate
  • National Bank signaled possible consideration of cuts in H2; decision conditional on internal/external developments.
• Reserves and funds
  • Gold & FX reserves: ~USD 72 billion.
  • National Fund: ~USD 64 billion.
• Portfolio inflows into tenge securities
  • ~USD 4.7–4.8 billion (recent).
• ENPF (Unified National Pension Fund)
  • Assets: ~25–26 trillion tenge.
  • Cumulative return since 2013: ~200% vs cumulative inflation ~188% — outperformance ≈12 percentage points.
  • Strategic goal: materially raise returns (“we want it to cover 20–30%” — i.e., higher surplus over inflation), subject to risk controls.
• Consumer lending
  • Growth slowed: consumer loan issuance growth decelerated to ~6.8% by end‑2025 (from prior ~30% p.a.).
  • Additional capital buffer: ~507 billion tenge formed by banks as of April 1 to limit consumer lending.
• Sovereign yields
  • Long‑end yields falling as investor confidence improves; prior Ministry of Finance 3–5 year yields ~11.5–12% (contextual).
• Reserve allocation to crypto/digital exposure
  • Initial modest allocation indicated ~USD 300–350 million (from FX reserves) plus similar small allocations from National Fund/confiscated assets.

Concrete operational examples and case notes

• Debt market coordination
  • Previously NPF purchased ~96% of Ministry paper; NPF participation reduced to ~12–15% — remainder absorbed by domestic and global markets, lowering yields and spreading risk.
• Halykbank
  • Historically the largest business lender (reported ~200 business loans/day; ~60% share of business lending historically) — an example of a corporate‑finance focused bank model.
• Reserve composition change
  • Prior objective was to lower gold share toward 50% for liquidity/income; geopolitical shocks raised gold share to ~70–75%. Now seeking renewed diversification.
• ENPF diversification
  • Planning introduction of equities and alternative investments, but proceeding cautiously due to public sensitivity and volatility (Norway’s sovereign fund cited as a cautionary example for near‑term volatility).
• Regulatory sandbox examples
  • Tokenization pilot for real estate (fractional tokens for apartments) on licensed platforms; digital tenge pilots for programmable budget flows.

Actionable recommendations and tactical implications

• For policymakers / finance ministry
  • Coordinate fiscal‑monetary messaging and joint investor outreach to lock in lower yields and a credible inflation path.
  • Avoid large one‑off tariff or fuel price hikes; adopt phased, transparent adjustments to contain second‑round inflation.
  • Maintain fiscal restraint despite temporary oil windfalls; avoid permanent expenditure increases that cannot be sustained when oil normalizes.
• For central bank / regulators
  • Use reserves and the National Fund strategically to absorb shocks while diversifying into liquid, income‑generating assets over time.
  • Maintain macroprudential tightening on consumer credit and support banks’ capacity to shift toward business lending.
  • Finalize the crypto/digital asset regulatory framework quickly (by end‑May) and transition sandbox projects into regulated market infrastructure.
• For pension fund / asset managers
  • Diversify gradually: reduce sovereign bond concentration, add equities and alternatives, keep strict risk and liquidity controls due to public scrutiny.
  • Communicate clearly with citizens about long‑term objectives, risk/return trade‑offs, and gradual implementation to preserve trust.
• For banks
  • Rebalance business models away from reliance on consumer‑lending revenues; compete for corporate and SME loans to support productive growth.
• For corporates / entrepreneurs
  • Explore tokenization and digital financing as new capital‑raising channels (fractionalization/crowdfunding), but build compliance and investor protections into offerings.

Risks highlighted

• Geopolitical shocks
  • Middle East conflict could push oil higher short‑term (boosting Kazakhstan’s revenues) but risks global inflation, central‑bank tightening elsewhere, capital‑flow volatility and recession risks that could hurt Kazakhstan.
• Resource curse
  • Temporary high oil prices can tempt unsustainable fiscal expansion and delay structural diversification.
• Inflation reversal risks
  • Rapid tariff reforms, decontrolled fuel prices, or sustained external price increases could reignite inflation and derail single‑digit targets.
• Reserve concentration in gold
  • High gold share reduces income and liquidity; selling large gold positions is costly and illiquid.
• Pension fund politicization / public sensitivity
  • Moving toward riskier assets must be managed carefully to avoid reputational and political fallout.

Timeline & near‑term milestones

• National Bank meeting: referenced on the 26th (monitor decisions).
• Digital asset regulation: finalize bylaws and regulations by end of May.
• Consumer‑lending legislative amendments: new limits effective July 1.
• ENPF strategy change: rollout beginning 2026.
• Crypto reserve / confiscated asset policy: decisions expected in April (per presidential instruction).

People and institutions mentioned

• Timur Suleimenov (interviewee)
• Interviewer (unnamed)
• Institutions: National Bank of Kazakhstan; Ministry of Finance; Debt Management Office; Unified National Pension Fund (ENPF / NPF); National Fund; Halykbank; EBRD; Citi; Goldman Sachs; JP Morgan; BlackRock (Larry Fink); Mubadala; ADIA; AIFC; KASE; Prosecutor General’s Office.