ElaadNL Webtalk 78 - V2G: Welke kant gaat het op?

Scientific concepts & nature/physics phenomena discussed

• Bidirectional charging / Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G): electric vehicles (EVs) can not only charge from the grid, but also feed power back to the electricity grid.
• Grid congestion reduction via flexible load shaping:
  • Charging/discharging can be scheduled to reduce demand peaks when the grid is heavily loaded.
  • The talk frames V2G as turning EVs into grid-support assets during congestion hours.
• Power-flow / power-quality constraints:
  • Vehicles/chargers must comply with protocols and standards governing what power they can provide and how they coordinate with grid operators.
• Battery degradation considerations:
  • The panel addressed concerns that bidirectional cycling might harm battery life, arguing that evidence suggests it is not a threat, related to the relative power used for discharge versus typical heavy-load operation.

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Research methodology (as described)

1. Step 1: Interviews + literature research

   • Consulted 15+ parties across the market (car manufacturers, suppliers, charging infrastructure parties/CPOs, etc.), plus government stakeholders.

2. Step 2: Build a V2G use case and charging profiles

   • Developed charging profiles intended to show grid impact.

3. Step 3: Extrapolate to geography

   • Extrapolated charging profiles to municipality/neighborhood level using CBS neighborhoods.

4. Step 4: Home-charging focus with behavioral/economic assumptions

   • Used real-world charging data: millions of charging sessions (base dataset).
   • Modeled behavior using the average of 100 charging sessions (to represent typical outcomes).
   • Applied price steering:
     • Assumed dynamic energy contracts so charging happens at cheapest times and discharging at more expensive times.
   • Assumed home solar and self-consumption optimization:
     • Participants use solar electricity first when available.
   • Used standard household consumption profiles and the relevant price assumptions (details in the report).

5. Step 5: Scale-up to future adoption scenarios

   • Combined household V2G capacity with forecasts for the number of home discharge/charging points:
     • Passenger cars: based on an “Outlook passenger cars” forecast.
     • Vans/logistics: based on an “Outlook logistics” forecast (described as smaller contribution).
   • Considered scenarios up to 2050 with a bandwidth (low/high) and assumed:
     • 100% electrification of vehicles by 2050 (in the shown calculation)
     • 100% adoption of V2G (in the main headline estimate)

6. Step 6: Create decision support dashboard

   • Built an online dashboard with a slider for 0–100% V2G adoption (in steps of 10%), to estimate the municipality probability/need.

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Key findings & “discoveries” (quantitative results)

1) Standards/protocol gaps are a limiting factor

• Communication between charging station and vehicle is mostly in place, but minor details remain.
• Responsibility allocation and regulation (what charger vs. car must do; how grid compliance is ensured) is not fully universally regulated in Europe yet, including the Netherlands.
• The presentation highlights:
  • A final standard version is delayed.
  • Testing responsibility and which standard tests apply are still being negotiated in industry.
• Result: even if vehicles can return power, regulatory readiness affects market rollout pace.

2) Home V2G can dampen congestion peaks

• In the modeled monthly behavior:
  • Charging is mainly between 0 and 5 (overnight).
  • In summer, charging also occurs during the day due to solar self-consumption.
  • With price-driven behavior, vehicles recharge in the window ~3/4 pm to ~9 pm, which corresponds to times when the grid is typically stressed.
• Average power fed back (home setting):
  • Up to ~2 kW average per household (model of 100 simultaneous home charging points).
  • Up to ~11 kW in individual cases (higher-capability situations exist, but average over many users is lower).

3) System-level capacity potential by 2050 (home-only modeling)

• Forecast home charging points by 2050:
  • ~2.2 to 2.25 million home charging points
• Scaled flexible capacity:
  • ~4.5 GW flexible capacity (assuming 100% vehicle electrification and 100% V2G adoption, and that all can feed back).
• Comparison to conventional generation:
  • A modern gas power plant is cited as ~1–1.5 GW, implying ~3–4 gas plants could be replaced.
• Comparison to Dutch peak load:
  • Netherlands current peak power cited as ~22 GW, indicating large potential impact.

4) “Smart charging + feed-in” reshapes demand

• Scenario comparisons described:
  • Regular home charging (no control): produces a significant peak between ~3 and 11 (interpreted as when most people plug in).
  • Smart charging (dynamic contract without feed-in): reduces the peak (dampening demand).
  • With feed-in (V2G on top of smart charging):
    • During grid-busy hours, vehicles return power → EVs become part of the solution, not the problem.
    • Discharging later requires recharging earlier/later to be ready for departure → night peak may rise, though it is currently “quiet” on the grid in the model and needs more investigation.

5) Spatial variation: urban vs rural/north

• Based on the map/dashboard logic (CBS neighborhood extrapolation):
  • Urban/busy areas still have good potential because many people live nearby and can home charge.
  • Northern provinces have “more space” (more driveways / more likely home charging).
  • Some very low potential “spots” (e.g., Wadden Islands) are explained by low population and thus fewer households with driveways.

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Policy/market conclusions emphasized

• Key caveat: protocols must become final and harmonized soon.
• Value to users: adoption requires that users earn sufficient compensation (or benefit) to keep cars plugged in.
• Grid-conscious control:
  • The model assumes price closely tracks congestion, but extreme cases could occur where price is low while congestion still exists, requiring further research and safeguards.
• Aggregation and revenue models:
  • The role of aggregators is discussed to bundle EV flexibility and enable market participation while keeping the experience simple for end users (“plug in + set departure time + minimum battery”).

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Additional technical/implementation points mentioned

• Home charging safety:
  • V2G should use appropriate standards and charging interfaces; household 220V is stated as not suitable/unsafe for this use.
• AC vs DC:
  • AC is described as beneficial in the Netherlands business case (cheaper infrastructure since no inverter is needed in the station).
  • Both AC and DC are generally considered workable for grid operator goals.
• Vehicle-to-home (V2H) / behind-the-meter optimization:
  • Mentioned as interesting and possibly earlier than full V2G, but standardization is still less mature for plug-and-play interoperability.

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Featured researchers / sources (named in subtitles/panel)

Individuals / organizations

• Erik Verkaartoven (Elaad / Head of Communications at Elaad)
• Jeroen Jansen (Elaad; presentation speaker)
• Lennard van Dijk (Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management)
• Boudewijn Blok (Renault Group Netherlands; Mobilize)
• Baarten de Brei (Elaad; responsible for “vehicle grid” work; mentions projects including Utrecht, Geenborg, Paris, Munich, Budapest)
• Robin Berg (Vrive Solar) (mentioned in context of past Netherlands trials)

Platforms / institutional entities / standards (as cited)

• Elaad (ElaadNL)
• EU / Brussels regulators
• Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (Netherlands; “MC” referenced)
• CBS neighborhoods (CBS = Dutch statistical office concept)
• ISO 15118 (referenced in software/protocol context; subtitle appears with minor errors)
• OCPP (referenced as part of platform/software standards; subtitle text appears slightly garbled)
• ISO 15820 (referenced with an obligation starting January 2027; subtitle appears “ISO 158, 20”)
• UNEC / UNEC referenced as a body for vehicle-side timeline planning (subtitle appears garbled)
• AFIR (Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation) (EU law referenced)
• Netcodes / grid codes (harmonization mentioned)
• DSO (distribution system operators) and TSO (transmission system operators) referenced
• Aquigy (platform referenced for frequency market participation)
• “Copex” platform referenced for DSO-related work
• ELAAT Arnhem lab referenced (spelled/recognized as “EAAT” in subtitles)

No additional academic papers or formal external research citations are explicitly named in the provided subtitles.