Alastair Crooke : How Saudi Arabia Is Collapsing

Summary

Judge Andrew Napolitano interviewed Alastair Crooke about U.S.–Russia relations, the wars involving Ukraine and Iran, and Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

Russian Diesel and U.S. Politics

Crooke characterized the reported arrangement allowing U.S. companies to buy Russian diesel as a short-lived political gesture intended to ease concerns about fuel prices before the midterm elections. He said it was neither a meaningful change in relations with Russia nor a solution to supply problems. Fuel shortages, he noted, involve shipping, refinery capacity, and the location and availability of suitable products, so any additional supply would have little effect.

Napolitano questioned the legality of the reported deal and pointed out that the fuel could take time to reach the United States.

A Wider Conflict Involving Russia, China, and Iran

Crooke argued that the war in Ukraine is part of a broader, long-running contest between the U.S.-led order and countries seeking a different global order. In his view, the conflict is driven by entrenched security and strategic interests, rather than simply by the preferences of the current U.S. president.

He also pointed to an apparent contradiction between U.S. efforts to support Ukraine and the possibility of allowing purchases of Russian fuel.

Pressure on Saudi Arabia

Crooke said Houthi attacks were damaging Saudi infrastructure and disrupting airports and oil-export routes. He argued that prolonged interruptions to oil income could widen Saudi Arabia’s trade deficit, forcing MBS either to weaken the currency or to spend foreign-exchange reserves defending its peg—both of which could have serious economic consequences.

Domestic Opposition to MBS

Crooke contended that the more consequential threat to MBS is domestic opposition, not the Houthis. He said the crown prince’s social reforms have alienated religious authorities, while reductions in tribal privileges, the concentration of power, and land expropriations for megaprojects have generated resentment among tribal groups, military figures, and members of the royal family.

Crooke cited the 1975 assassination of King Faisal as a historical reminder that threats to Saudi rulers can come from within the ruling system.

Alleged Political Coordination

Crooke said he had seen reports—though he could not verify them—of Iranian Revolutionary Guard contacts with Saudi tribal leaders. According to those reports, discussions concerned a more federal political arrangement and a redistribution of oil wealth and tribal rights.

He also argued that Iranian representatives have been willing to engage with a range of political and tribal groups in the region.

Limits of U.S. Military Intervention

The speakers discussed the possibility of U.S. military action against the Houthis. Crooke argued that fighting them would be difficult and could require extreme measures, while potentially strengthening the movement’s domestic support. He also described reported mass demonstrations in Houthi-controlled areas as evidence of that support.

Other Topic

The interview briefly touched on President Trump’s reported proposal to rename the Atlantic Ocean, which Crooke described as consistent with what he called Trump’s unusual style.

Presenters and Contributors

• Judge Andrew Napolitano — Host
• Alastair Crooke — Guest and commentator