Video summary

Які перспективи ОВДП у 2026 році?

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary (OVDP / government bonds outlook for 2026)

Presenters / sources

  • Dmitry
  • Alexander

Performance recap: example trade (last year)

  • Bought: OVDP on April 8 at UAH 1,034
  • FX rate at purchase: 41.09 UAH/$
    • (subtitle shows “4109”, implied conversion by later USD figures)
  • Coupons received: 2 coupons
    • 81 UAH total
    • converted to about $2.0 and $1.9 (per-coupon estimates)

Current (as of video recording):

  • Bond value now: UAH 1,068
  • Current FX rate: 43.5–43.6 UAH/$
  • Implied return mentioned:
    • ~20.5% in UAH
    • ~14.2% in USD

Why the UAH return remained high despite declining rates:

  • The explanation was that falling interest rates benefited the bond through coupon + partial revaluation.

Recommendation/disclaimer tone:

  • “Buy and hold” is described as workable.
  • No explicit legal “not advice” wording appears in the subtitles provided.

What changed vs last year (risk & macro context)

Improved risk configuration vs earlier war period

  • More predictable economy and exchange rate
  • Less “existential” framing than 2022

Interest-rate environment (NBU policy)

  • NBU rates: decreasing
  • Since beginning of the year: ~18.5% → ~16.75% (peak/longer-term level mentioned)
  • Comment: investors who bought early are “in chocolate” (higher starting yields)

Budget financing predictability

  • Described as improved

Inflation / energy uncertainty remains

  • They cite higher energy/fuel costs as an inflationary risk
  • NBU inflation path may have turned upward after March vs February

External funding scenario

  • Mentioned Hungary and a potential 90B support tranche for the budget (post-elections context)
  • “Catastrophic” risk if funding fails:
    • pressure to finance via printing press
  • Existential risk probability reduced vs 2022:
    • still “not zero”, roughly discussed as 2–3%

Quote-style framing (paraphrased): existential threats are less likely now, but not impossible.

Market structure: how to buy & sell OVDP (broker comparison)

Brokers mentioned (with instruments: OVDP)

Bank brokers

  • Privat
  • Mono (Monobank)
  • Sense Bank

Non-bank brokers

  • ICU
  • Inzhur
  • Univer

Instruments

  • Regular OVDP (domestic government bonds)
  • Military OVDP (sold via “action”; timing/commission differs)

Shared features across brokers (as stated)

  • Zero commission for OVDP access
    • “free” to buy/sell via broker apps/offices
  • Liquidity / ability to sell any day
    • “sell button… any day”
  • Tax treatment (as described):
    • 0 personal income tax
    • 0 military levy
    • Presented as a “most influential” factor

“Spread” / early exit cost framework

They focus on the exit spread (loss when selling before maturity).

Example approach used:

  • If held to maturity, you earn bond yield (coupons + accrual)
  • If you sell early, you lose via discount/spread
  • Net rule-of-thumb:
    • hold-year yield − spread

Key numbers: exit spreads and yields by broker (from subtitles)

Exit spread estimates (early sell discount)

  • Monobank: ~3.5%
    • Example: a 2-year bond ~15.8% yield
    • If sold after ~1 year (assuming rates unchanged): net estimated 12.3% (= 15.8 − 3.5)
  • “Classic” market spread: ~2%
  • Spread ranges mentioned for 3-year bonds:
    • Privat: ~2.0%
    • ICU: ~0.9%
    • Univer: ~0.5%
    • Inzhur: stated as smallest ~0.5%
      • (subtitle wording mixes names, but 0.5% is credited as the smallest)

OVDP line breadth (availability by term)

  • Privat / ICU: “almost the entire line” (wide maturity selection)
  • Univer: smaller, but still wide
  • Inzhur: offers only military OVDP → narrower line

Approximate rate examples (1-year and 3-year)

~1-year OVDP (“worst” among cited): ~15.4–15.5%

  • Cluster around:
    • Mono ~15.4%
    • Privat ~15.5%
    • ICU ~15.5% (Univer similar)

~3-year bonds: conditions even out

  • Privat / ICU / Univer around:
    • Privat ~16.5%
    • ICU ~16.75%
    • Sense ~16.76% (as transcribed)

Military vs regular OVDP: why broker conditions differ

  • They claim military vs regular OVDP differs minimally for investor economics (rates/conditions broadly similar)
  • But practical differences arise because:
    • Inzhur sells only military OVDP
    • NBU National Depository charges ~UAH 30 per transaction with a broker on non-military government bonds
    • Under martial law, commission for military OVDP is zero
    • Result: brokers can offer better spreads/conditions for military OVDP

“Flexible Fix” product (special trading-without-loss concept)

  • Product referenced: “Flexible Fix” (mentioned as offered by Inzhur)
  • Claimed feature:
    • Sell it any day without losing interest
    • Presented as analogous to a “current account interest” model
    • Example: buy today → sell in a week → earn during the week

Suggested yields:

  • Inzhur Flexible Fix: 15%–15.5% (subtitle mentions 15 and 15.5)
  • Converted estimate: ~6% after taxes (their stated net figure)

Key risks emphasized:

  • Main risk is currency (FX) risk
    • USD appreciation/depreciation affects USD return
  • Longer holding reduces sensitivity to short-term FX moves

Disclosure/interpretation caution (their point):

  • They argue marketing can confuse users:
    • “no loss” can be misunderstood as meaning spread won’t matter
  • They claim if sold before coupon accrues, you may lose more via spread
  • They encourage clearer disclosure that the product mechanics set “interest to zero” under certain conditions (their wording)
  • They ask for more transparent messaging to prevent misunderstanding

Buying around coupon dates: guidance

  • Claim: buying before vs after coupon is “no difference”
  • Reason:
    • Immediately after coupon payment, bond price drops by the coupon amount
  • Implication:
    • the “earned” portion is reflected in price, so timing tricks don’t create arbitrage (“no cheating”)

Outlook / forecasts: FX corridor and bond yields (2026-ish)

FX rate expectations (UAH/USD)

  • Today: ~43.5
  • End-of-year expectation:
    • Not more than 45 (primary view)
  • Alternative “corridor” mentioned: 44.5–46.5
    • described as “vague” if wider; they prefer narrower
  • Illustrative scenario:
    • If start-of-year FX ~42 and devaluation 5–6%, end-of-year FX could be ~40.5
    • (presented as rough scenario illustration; later they still target mid-44s)

USD-denominated return expectations (longer maturities)

  • They estimate USD yield for April 2027 maturity around ~9–8% in a “critical scenario” framing
    • i.e., “not worse than this” in their expectations
  • Thesis for currency attractiveness:
    • NBU aims to keep “hryvnia rate − FX devaluation” sufficiently positive
    • Example math presented:
      • hryvnia ~16% with devaluation around ~11% → ~11% in USD (subtitle math)
  • Hryvnia bond rates likely decline over 2–3 years, but outcomes beyond that are uncertain due to inflation/energy.

Investing stance & recommendations (explicit)

If you’re unsure about future rate movement

  • Previously (implied earlier view): “buy the longest ones with highest rate”
  • Now (given there are 1-year special offers):
    • suggested allocation: split 50/50
      • 50% into the special offer (shorter maturity)
      • 50% into the longest maturities

Planned testing

  • They plan to test by buying about UAH 1,000 across different brokers
  • Re-check performance in one year

Risk management notes

Main long-term risk

  • SVDP default / restructuring on domestic government bonds
  • They claim:
    • no domestic default historically
    • foreign obligation restructuring has happened (as a concept)

Other emphasized risks

  • Interest-rate risk exists
    • selling early can lock losses via spread
  • FX risk dominates USD outcomes
  • Diversification:
    • not only across instruments, but potentially across brokers/counterparties for large sums
    • custody in the NBU depository reduces broker insolvency risk after purchase

Counterparty / custody claim (broker failure mechanics)

  • After purchase, securities are stored at NBU National Depository
  • If broker fails, regulator transfers securities to another broker
  • Edge case:
    • if the broker fails before securities are actually bought
    • funds could be at risk for a short window (“conditionally for one day” as they explained)

Disclosures / disclaimers

  • No explicit “not financial advice” or legal disclaimer is present in the subtitle text provided.

Performance metrics / numeric summary (all key figures gathered)

Example trade

  • Purchase: UAH 1,034
  • Current value: UAH 1,068
  • FX: 41.09 → 43.5–43.6
  • Returns: ~20.5% UAH, ~14.2% USD

Interest rates mentioned

  • Start/beginning-of-year: 18.5%
  • Long-term peak: ~16.75%
  • “1-year yields”: ~15.4–15.5%
  • “3-year yields”: ~16.5–16.76%

Broker spreads (early exit)

  • Monobank: ~3.5%
  • Privat: ~2.0%
  • ICU: ~0.9%
  • Univer / Inzhur: ~0.5% (subtitle wording overlaps; 0.5% framed as smallest)

FX outlook

  • Today: 43.5
  • End-of-year target: ≤45
  • Suggested corridor: 44.5–46.5

Currency math cited

  • USD outcome framed as:
    • ~9–8% USD yield in a “critical scenario”
    • and ~11% USD as a desirable calculation result

Flexible Fix

  • Yield: 15–15.5% (gross, per subtitle)
  • Net: ~6% after taxes (their stated figure)

Investor base

  • ~210,000 investors in Ukraine mentioned
  • Gradual growth in participation

Mentioned tickers/assets/instruments

  • OVDP / domestic government bonds
  • Military OVDP
  • NBU / National Bank of Ukraine interest rates (policy context; no ticker)
  • FX pair concept: UAH/USD exchange rate (values ~41 → ~43.5)
  • “Current account analog” interest product concept (no specific ticker)

Presenters

  • Dmitry
  • Alexander

Original video