Kerala - Oldest State in Youngest Country? Lessons for all Indians?

Kerala’s Ageing Population: An Early Warning for India

Kerala’s rapidly ageing population may offer an early warning for the rest of India. The video argues that the state’s experience could help other regions prepare for demographic changes expected to spread across the country over the next 15–20 years.

A fast-changing age profile

People aged 60 and over made up about 16.5% of Kerala’s population in 2021. The video cites a projection that this share will rise to 22.8% by 2036—nearly one in four residents. It also says the working-age share is expected to fall below 60%.

Fewer family caregivers

The old-age dependency ratio is projected to reach 34.3% by 2031. Youth outmigration, partly driven by limited local employment, contributes to this shift. The video cites an estimate of 2.2 million Malayalis living abroad and says two in five households have at least one NRI.

Remittances support families, but children’s absence can leave older parents with less day-to-day care.

Retirement assumptions under pressure

The presenter questions the assumption that savings such as LIC, fixed deposits and EPF—alongside support from adult children—will be enough in retirement. As families and the working-age population shrink, the burden on remaining earners and public services grows.

Healthcare costs and needs

The video says Kerala spends 5.2% of state GDP on healthcare, the highest share nationally. Yet older residents still face substantial out-of-pocket costs, which the video puts at 59% of healthcare expenses, or about ₹28,400 crore statewide.

It also cites a multimorbidity rate of 52.2% in Kerala, compared with a national average of about 23%. The video highlights that remittances cannot replace immediate physical assistance when older people need care.

The elderly budget

Kerala has introduced a dedicated elderly budget of ₹46,236 crore. The presenter describes it as an important first step in planning for older residents, while noting that 68% of the total goes to existing pensions, largely benefiting people with formal government employment. As a result, the budget may not provide equivalent support to everyone.

A wider opportunity

The video argues that Kerala can serve as a testing ground for policies, services and businesses aimed at an ageing population. It points to South Korea, Japan, China and Singapore as places facing similar challenges, and urges India to learn from both the successes and shortcomings of their approaches.

The central message is that ageing should be treated as a planning challenge—and a potential source of new solutions—rather than a problem Kerala alone must address.

Presenter: Jayant Mundhra