Japan Earthquake activity. Multiple M Solar Flares today. Saturday update.

Summary

• Solar activity: The presenter reported several recent M-class solar flares following a day of C-class flares. A sunspot facing Earth appeared magnetically complex, which the presenter interpreted as a possible precursor to an X-class flare. The presenter forecast a 20% chance of an X-class flare, a 50–60% chance of an M-class flare, and a 99% chance of a C-class flare. These were forecasts, not confirmed outcomes.
• Solar wind and auroras: A coronal-hole stream was associated with solar-wind speeds above 650 km/s. Particle density was described as low, around 5–7, and auroral activity as limited. The presenter said auroras would depend largely on the interplanetary magnetic field’s Bz turning sufficiently southward, and noted a possible G1 geomagnetic storm forecast.
• Earthquakes:
  • A magnitude 1.8 earthquake was noted in Alaska.
  • A small earthquake near Milford, Utah, was discussed alongside activity near the Mineral Mountains fault. The presenter speculated that human operations—such as geothermal work, fracking, or oil-field activity—might contribute.
  • Small earthquakes were reported near Parkfield on the San Andreas Fault. The presenter noted no significant local activity in Northern or Southern California, or the Pacific Northwest.
  • Around Japan, the update described two magnitude 5.5 earthquakes following recent magnitude-6 activity. It also noted a shallow earthquake near segment E of the Nankai Trough, contrasting it with an earlier, deeper event. The presenter outlined the trough’s segments A–E and briefly illustrated plate motions.
  • The presenter also observed increased, mostly magnitude-3-to-4 activity along the Middle America and Chile–Peru trenches.
• Kīlauea: Summit deformation data showed gradual inflation after eruptive episode 56. Comparing the pattern with the period before episode 55, the presenter suggested another eruption might follow a similar timeline, potentially after several more days. Webcam imagery showed gas emissions and condensation or cloud formation near the vents.
• Near-Earth asteroid: The presenter discussed 2026 VL5, reported as passing about 0.14 lunar distances from Earth. Its estimated diameter was around 2 metres, so an impact would likely produce a small atmospheric fireball.
• Weather outlook: Forecast models indicated a possible shift toward a stormier pattern on the U.S. West Coast around the middle of the month, with Northern California potentially most affected. Climate outlooks suggested above-average precipitation in parts of California, including Southern California. High pressure was expected to keep much of the eastern U.S. warmer and drier. The presenter also said a historically strong El Niño could influence the coming winter.
• Other observation: The lunar crescent was described as about 2% illuminated.

Researchers and Sources Featured

No individual researchers were named. Sources and data references mentioned included:

• USGS earthquake and volcanic activity pages
• Solar X-ray flux graph, sunspot UV imagery, and magnetogram
• Solar-wind and interplanetary magnetic-field measurements
• Petrolia seismic station data
• Kīlauea deformation data and webcam imagery
• Asteroid listings for 2026 VL5
• GFS and ECMWF weather models
• Climate Prediction Center outlooks
• Kevin, mentioned as someone who maintains a solar-flare forecast page, but not otherwise identified