큰 하락에도 무너지지 않는 투자법, 원칙에 답이 있습니다 | 깡토 & 너쟁이

Summary

The discussion centers on how trend following changed Neojaengi’s approach to risk after earlier losses from value investing and leveraged investing. The core idea is to accept frequent small losses while keeping the possibility of larger gains open. Both speakers stress that rules provide a statistical framework, but experienced investors may adapt entries and exits to their own judgment and temperament.

Neojaengi began investing around September 2019, initially using quantitative value screens and holding roughly 20–30 companies. During the COVID-era downturn, his portfolio fell sharply. He later invested in the secondary-battery sector, including EcoPro and EcoPro BM. He recalls stocks rising several-fold—described in the subtitles as threefold or tenfold—which encouraged him to borrow more to invest. That leverage ultimately contributed to substantial losses.

After joining the Chuno trend-following study group, Neojaengi focused more on risk controls. During a sharp market downturn around July, he says he protected his account better than he had in the past. A rally in August and September, particularly in materials, parts, and equipment stocks, helped him reach a new account high; he describes the outcome as partly fortunate.

Strategy and Framework

• Limit downside and leave upside open: Trend following accepts that a trade may be wrong and exits rather than waiting for an investment thesis to be conclusively disproven.
• Manage position risk: The speakers cite a 2% rule, managing positions so that a trade risks no more than about 2% of the total account.
• Set stop-loss levels: Kkangto’s commonly discussed framework uses stops around 7–8% below entry. Neojaengi often uses tighter stops of roughly 2–3%, and may exit sooner if his assessment of a company’s fundamentals changes.
• Expect losing trades: Neojaengi estimates trend-following success rates at about 30–40%. He views repeated, controlled losses as part of the strategy rather than evidence that it has failed.
• Follow a statistical process, then adapt carefully: The speakers distinguish between following a tested framework and applying discretion. Neojaengi says he often enters earlier based on several signals—such as follow-up pivots, bullish alignment, or sector strength—instead of waiting strictly for a new-high breakout.
• Use fundamentals to filter signals: They advocate combining trend signals with “techno-fundamentals,” such as the business outlook and potential earnings or EPS improvement, to avoid chasing technically strong but weakly supported stocks.
• Track market attention: Neojaengi monitors daily market moves and news, looking for early signs of emerging sectors and trying to identify the reasons behind price strength or weakness. He says this can help him enter earlier and build a profit cushion.
• Favor globally supported themes: In discussing recent leadership, Neojaengi preferred exposure to globally connected AI-related supply chains over themes limited mainly to Korea.

Markets, Sectors, and Assets Mentioned

• Stocks: EcoPro, EcoPro BM, Samsung Electronics
• Sectors and themes: Secondary batteries; semiconductors; AI; data centers; cosmetics; materials, parts, and equipment; OSAT and semiconductor downstream businesses
• Markets: Korean and U.S. equities, as well as Japan and Taiwan as examples of markets participating in semiconductor-related strength
• Financing: Overdraft borrowing and leverage, discussed as sources of risk

Market Context and Cautions

The speakers say that market direction and future earnings are difficult to predict. Samsung Electronics and semiconductor stocks may appear inexpensive under one earnings outlook, but less attractive if earnings decline after 2028 and valuations rise. Ongoing supply shortages could support profits, but that outcome is uncertain.

Neojaengi has focused on Korean stocks because he knows that market better after studying it since 2019. He says he would consider shifting toward the U.S. market if Korean conditions remained difficult.

Sector leadership can change, and selling pressure may emerge after a strong sector run, particularly in a market with limited liquidity. The conversation also cautions against borrowing to amplify positions based on recent gains or confidence in a favored industry.

Disclosures

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The discussion is presented as the speakers’ experiences and views; the cited rules and examples are not described as guarantees of returns.

Presenters and Sources

Presenters: Kkangto (host) and Neojaengi, a Chuno study-group member.

Sources and references mentioned: Richard Dennis and Turtle Trading; an Albatross book on trend following; and an investor named Peter Kane (the name may be imperfectly rendered in the subtitles).