Tradin TV Ep 262: Live New York Trading Session with Rosa, Saif & Salah

Summary (finance-specific)

Market/instruments discussed

• Gold (XAUUSD): repeatedly the focus of bearish-to-neutral price action discussion.

  • Bias: bearish while oil > $90/bbl (inflation pressure → stronger USD → headwind for gold) over the “next couple of months”.
  • Key levels mentioned
    • “Swing level” near 4200 (with a correction/invalidations framework on the daily).
    • If close below ~4070/70 today → “very bearish” continuation.
    • A referenced “reversal” idea didn’t materialize; another target was ~200 pips (≈ $20).
    • Setup idea: pending sells around ~4085, with stop ~89–90 (as stated in the pips/points context).
  • Technical framework
    • Trend requires lower highs + lower lows.
    • Failure swing logic: failing to break the prior low while also breaking the prior high can invalidate the downtrend (both conditions emphasized).
    • Engulfing candle caution: don’t treat intrabar engulfing as valid until the candle closes; earlier mistakes came from intrabar pattern assumptions.

• Oil (commodity): above $90 per barrel cited as a macro driver for inflation expectations and USD strength.

• EURUSD / “Euro”

  • Mentioned as below 1.14, with a watch level at close below ~1.1390 as a pivot.
  • Concern for upcoming ECB press conference: potential volatility, likely “to the downside”.
  • Bearish setup: wait for closes below ~1.1380–1.1370 for continuation.

• GBPUSD

  • Weekly/day viewed as very bearish; price action below moving averages and “obstacles” around ~1.33.
  • Recommendation: don’t enter until a close below ~1.33; if entering, they’d prefer sells (timing conditional).

• US Dollar (DXY implied via USD/USD strength talk)

  • US Initial Jobless Claims: expected 211,000, released 187,000 (lower claims = stronger labor market).
  • Market implication: higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes → USD strength → bearish for gold.

• Silver

  • Described as “went crazy”; silver ~57 forming a bearish engulfing on the daily (not yet closed at the time).

• Index/other pairs

  • “Bank Nifty” and generic “u cable” comments appear, but no concrete orders/levels were provided beyond references to contacting a “Dubai office”.

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Key macro / event timeline

• ~30 minutes: “Europe interest rate decision” (ECB) expected to stay unchanged due to inflation concerns re-accelerating.
  • CPI/inflation readings considered potentially unreliable because they reflected the June ceasefire/memorandum context.
• Initial Jobless Claims: discussed shortly before release; they state it came out much lower than expected.
• ECB press conference: “20 minutes from now” after jobless claims.
• Trading caution: expect volatility around Euro pairs due to ECB communications.

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Execution/strategy frameworks and steps mentioned

A) Gold bearish trend / failure-swing logic (daily)

• Stay bearish while gold makes:
  • lower highs and lower lows
• Watch for rejection after testing prior lows.
• Define a failure swing as:
  • failure to break the previous low, and
  • break of the previous high
  • (both conditions needed to invalidate the downtrend; trendline break alone isn’t sufficient)
• Invalidation/continuation checks:
  • If daily close below ~4070/70 → continuation expected
  • If price breaks/closes above ~4200 → possible bias change

B) Candle-pattern discipline

• Engulfing candle must close to count.
• Avoid “getting excited” off intrabar movement that later reverses.

C) Fibonacci (used with trend + candle setup, not standalone)

• Fibonacci Retracements
  • Applied to correction within an existing trend.
  • “Stop/target zones” often between ~50% and ~61.8%.
• Fibonacci Extensions
  • Used in strong trends/high-volume impulses.
  • Levels discussed:
    • 1.272 and 1.414 as preferred personal TP/target levels
    • 1.618 (161.8%) mentioned as commonly meaningful; the speaker noted weaker hit-rate to TP when relying on it
• Implementation rules emphasized:
  • Draw Fibonacci left-to-right on the whole wave (impulse-to-impulse or impulse-to-correction wave, per their examples).
  • Fibonacci is only actionable with a separate trend + setup edge, e.g.:
    • wait for engulfing confirmation near fib levels (especially around 61.8)
  • Method described:
    • identify a larger directional level (trendline/daily fib context),
    • wait for engulfing confirmation,
    • then use 50% retracement of that candle for a tighter entry.

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Explicit recommendations / cautions

• Gold: be cautious around ECB/jobless claims because USD reaction can overwhelm technicals; execute only on confirmed closes/patterns.
• Euro pairs: “be careful” around ECB press conference due to expected downside volatility.
• GBPUSD: avoid trading in the middle zone; wait for close below ~1.33.
• Risk/psychology (trading process)
  • Don’t move to break-even too early; avoid closing when price merely returns to entry out of fear.
  • Use waiting discipline (“sit on your hands”) until TP/SL is hit.
  • For long break-even stagnation:
    • confirm rules are followed,
    • use journaling/spreadsheets,
    • build confidence via demo first (seriously), then live with minimum lots if needed.

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Key numbers and levels collected (as stated)

• Oil: > $90/barrel
• Gold
  • Trade bias: bearish until invalidation
  • Invalidation/threshold: ~4200 (daily swing level)
  • Very bearish trigger: close below ~4070
  • Plan: pending sells around ~4085 with stop ~89–90
• EURUSD
  • Reference: ~1.14
  • Pivot: ~1.1390
  • Continuation close: below ~1.1380–1.1370
• GBPUSD
  • Trigger close below ~1.33
  • Another referenced threshold: “area at them” around 1.33
• US Initial Jobless Claims
  • Expected 211,000
  • Actual 187,000
• Silver: around 57
• Fibonacci targets
  • Retracement: common “sweet spot” 61.8%; band 50%–61.8%
  • Extension/TTP personal levels: 1.272, 1.414
  • Common extension: 1.618 (161.8%)

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” wording appears in the provided subtitles.
• Trading content is framed as live-market technical discussion and strategy education (educational tone implied).

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Rosa (primary trader/educator in session)
• Saif (mentioned as joining/being backstage; not deeply technical in provided subtitles)
• Salah (mentioned in video title)
• “Trading TV” / “Math” / “Math EU vlogs” (chat participants; unclear if presenters)
• Raja Banks (referenced as a trader strategy/source of inspiration)
• Leonardo Fibonacci (Fibonacci origin story discussed)