I ranked India's top 10 investments (Number #5 will surprise you) | Akshat Shrivastava

Finance-focused summary (India investing ranking framework)

Overall framework / method (used for each asset)

Assets are ranked using 4 parameters:

1. Wipeout risk
2. Growth (expected return / impact on INR purchasing power)
3. Tax efficiency
4. Cash flow & liquidity (ability to convert back to money quickly)

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Key macro / investing context

The argument is anchored in INR depreciation and inflation:

• INR depreciation / inflation impact is central:
  • INR has depreciated vs USD such that total depreciation is >20–25% over ~last 4–5 years.
  • The speaker also uses long-run wording implying the rupee has been “wiped out by more than 90%” (context unclear in the provided text).
• The speaker argues future equity returns from India are lower than the past:
  • Major equity/mutual-fund gains allegedly came during 1999–2008/09, when Nifty moved from ~1,000 to ~6,000 (about 5x–6x).
  • Since around 2009/2010, Nifty has moved only about 4x over ~18 years, implying slower returns going forward.
  • Claim: “these 11% return rates are gone” due to mainstreaming/SIP adoption and market maturity.

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Ranked assets (partial list; mentions #10 to #5 and some others)

#10 (worst): Cash (INR in savings/banks)

Main claims

• Wipeout risk: ~close to zero
• Growth: negative real growth (inflation + INR depreciation)
• Tax efficiency: low (interest income taxed; “fairly high tax”)
• Cash flow & liquidity: very high (easy to move into other assets)

Explicit caution / recommendation logic

• Cash is criticized mainly as opportunity cost over 10–20 years (loss of purchasing power).

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#9: PF / PPF / EPF

Main claims

• Growth assumption: ~8% (speaker’s stated reasonable assumption), described as tax-free
• Real issue (framing): locking money for 10–15 years
• Cash flow & liquidity: extremely poor / low
• Wipeout risk: low

Competition argument

• If instead invested in equities, the speaker cites:
  • Nifty 50 average growth ~12% over the long run (as stated)
• Because PF/PPF/EPF growth is portrayed as moderate versus alternatives, it ranks poorly.

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#8: FDs (Fixed Deposits)

Main claims

• Wipeout risk: low (but not zero; bank failures possible; insurance limited)
• Growth: not positive in real terms / too low for wealth-building
• Tax efficiency: extremely poor (taxed at slab rates)
• Cash flow & liquidity: high (easier to break/exit than locked products; may provide periodic income)

Explicit framework / step

• FD is positioned as appropriate only for short-term needs:
  • Example: Portfolio = 100 units
  • If next 2 years’ expenses = 10 units, put 10 units in FD
  • If saving for the same horizon becomes >10 units, then (per speaker) it’s a bad decision—shift more to growth instruments.

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#7: Apartment in Tier-2 / Tier-3 city

Main claims

• Wipeout risk: low (if ready apartment / possession; warns against shady builders)
• Growth rate: poor (speaker says it “shrinks rather than appreciates” generally)
• Tax efficiency: described as high (benefits; rental optimization mentioned, but no endorsement of “black” rent)
• Cash flow & liquidity: extremely poor / low (key danger)

Market liquidity argument

• Tier-2/3 apartments have fewer buyers, making exit difficult.
• “Cheaper purchase” is the main positive; illiquidity is the main negative.

Explicit recommendation

• Advocates buying a home if:
  • Near retirement, or
  • First house, and
  • You like that city (Tier-2/3) and plan to live there.
• Warns it’s dangerous as an investment primarily due to illiquidity.

Macro hedge rationale

• Home ownership could protect against unexpected inflation spikes in an emerging economy.

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#6: Gold & Silver

Main claims

• Wipeout risk: very low (retains value)
• Growth: moderate; cites long-term ~3% average for gold over 100 years
• Tax efficiency: high for physical gold; lower confidence/concerns with digital forms
• Cash flow & liquidity: high for physical gold; can take loan against gold
• Ranked higher than Tier-2/3 apartments due to liquidity.

Key caution (digital / structured gold)

• Speaker argues against digital gold instruments (e.g., mentions SGB):
  • Claims investors may not truly “own the asset”
  • Mentions possible government default risk
  • Warns rules/taxes could be changed retrospectively, reducing tradability or increasing taxes

Explicit allocation suggestion

• For “well-to-do” investors: hold ~10–15% of wealth in gold.

For new starters

• With low capital, the speaker suggests gold may not be sensible; default should be growth instruments.

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#5: Mutual Funds (ranked as “level five”)

Main claims

• Wipeout risk: moderate (especially for higher-risk funds like microcaps)
• Growth: good (depends on fund type)
• Tax efficiency: moderate (capital gains taxed at typically lower rates vs FDs, per speaker)
• Cash flow & liquidity: present, but returns fluctuate; timing exits can be difficult

Key numbers (as stated)

• Expected “blended rate” for an average investor: 15–16% (speaker says in dollar terms then converts)
• After INR depreciation adjustment (as described):
  • INR return parity: ~11% (“even before paying any taxes”)
• Past performance narrative:
  • Nifty moved ~1,000 → 6,000 in 1999–2008/09
  • Since 2009/2010, about 4x over ~18 years

Explicit caution / criticism

• Mutual funds lack a clear “when to exit” signal.
• Speaker argues recent years show weaker returns and implies investors aren’t getting an obvious “sell” prompt when performance disappoints (suggesting regime shifts matter).

Who mutual funds are for

• Best for:
  • People starting growth investing
  • People with lower capital and less time
• But the speaker says you should upgrade later (transition beyond basic mutual fund investing).

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Explicit recommendations / caution themes repeated

• Avoid holding too much cash due to inflation/INR depreciation opportunity cost.
• PF / EPF / PPF: criticized mainly for moderate growth (~8%) versus long lock-in (10–15 years) and poor liquidity.
• FDs: only for short-term needs (~2 years); otherwise allocate more to growth.
• Tier-2/3 apartments: suitable as a home (if you’ll live there / near retirement), not as an investment due to illiquidity.
• Gold:
  • Prefer physical gold over digital schemes; use as a hedge
  • Possible allocation: 10–15% for well-to-do investors
• Mutual funds:
  • Good starting vehicle for growth, but future returns may be lower than the last two decades’ winners
  • Timing/exit discipline is a key challenge

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
• The speaker references an “investment community,” but no formal disclaimer is described.

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Mentioned instruments / tickers / assets

• INR / cash
• PF / EPF / PPF
• FDs
• Nifty 50 (index; referenced generally)
• Gold and Silver
• SGB (example of digital gold)
• Mutual funds (categories mentioned generally):
  • debt, large cap, midcap, small cap, micro cap, thematic funds
  • example allocation path: “50% flexi cap then some large cap then mid and small caps”

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Presenters / sources

• Akshat Shrivastava (implied by the video framing; no other named presenters appear)