ทำไมปี 2026 ถึงเป็นปีที่ "น่ากลัว" และ "ท้าทาย" ที่สุด | Mission To The Moon EP.2581

Summary

The episode reviews the Financial Times’ annual forecasts for major global developments in 2026, spanning politics, markets, and technology. The host emphasizes that these are predictions rather than certainties.

Politics and geopolitics

• Trump’s tariffs: The Financial Times expects tariffs not to rise further and possibly to ease. Market disruption and higher prices for US consumers may lead Trump to back away from the most aggressive measures.
• Ukraine: Ukraine could face pressure to give up parts of Donbas as the price of a peace deal. The host notes the military, political, and constitutional obstacles, and doubts Ukraine would concede territory unless its defensive position deteriorated severely.
• US midterms: Democrats are forecast to regain the House of Representatives, potentially limiting Trump’s agenda and enabling investigations. Taking control of the Senate is less certain, and impeachment would remain difficult.
• France: A snap parliamentary election is considered unlikely. Parties have little incentive to repeat the uncertain result of the previous election ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
• Germany: The far-right AfD could gain ground in regional elections, increasing pressure within the conservative CDU and testing its reluctance to cooperate with the party.
• Japan: The country’s new prime minister is forecast to remain in office despite political and economic challenges and possible internal party tensions.
• UK politics: Keir Starmer may face a leadership challenge following poor election results, though a challenger would need sufficient support among Labour MPs.
• Saudi Arabia and Israel: Normalization is considered unlikely without a clear path toward a Palestinian state, particularly given anger over the war in Gaza.

Markets and the economy

• China’s currency: The yuan is not expected to appreciate significantly. Deflationary pressures and trade tensions are cited as reasons it may remain weak.
• Interest rates: Central banks are generally expected to continue cutting rates in 2026, with Japan as a possible exception. Persistent inflation and stronger productivity growth could complicate decisions.
• Private credit: Defaults could expose risks from the rapid growth of private-sector lending and higher borrowing costs. The damage is expected to remain limited if the US economy stays strong.
• Africa and Asia: Africa’s growth may just exceed Asia’s in 2026, with both forecast at roughly 4.1%. The host notes that Africa’s overall economic weight remains relatively small despite strong growth in some countries.
• Gold: The price could exceed $5,000 an ounce, supported by central-bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, concerns about government deficits, and doubts about fiat currencies.

Technology

• AI investment: A correction is possible, but the forecast is not for a catastrophic crash. Smaller startups and investors may be hit hardest, while major technology companies are better positioned. The discussion anticipates a possible 10–15% decline in valuations.
• Home robots: Robots may reach early adopters, including a model offered for around $20,000, but their practical abilities remain limited. The host characterizes them more as expensive novelties than capable household helpers.
• Quantum computing: Commercially useful quantum computers are not expected in 2026, though progress is continuing. Organizations are already being urged to prepare sensitive data and systems for a future “post-quantum” era.
• AI-generated music: The host observes that AI can produce compelling songs but questions whether it can replicate the human personality and context that help listeners connect with music.
• Tesla: A recovery in market share is considered unlikely. The discussion points to competition from Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, changing incentives and regulations, and uncertainty around Tesla’s strategy and Musk’s focus on AI and robotaxis.

The episode ends with promotional material for the channel’s notebook and a giveaway.

Presenter/contributors: Mission To The Moon host; the subtitles do not identify the presenter by name.