Video summary
11 Undervalued Stocks To Buy Today
Main summary
Key takeaways
Market Context & Key Performance Cited
- Broad market rally, but leadership is concentrated:
- S&P 500: +7%
- QQQ: +14%
- Rally leadership is described as mainly semiconductor/AI companies.
- Many other stocks are “flattish or going down,” creating selective opportunities.
Portfolio Approach / Framework (Explicit)
Core-Satellite Strategy
- Core (~50%): ETFs (examples mentioned: SPY, VU, SCHG)
- Satellite (~50%): individual stocks viewed as “market beating”
Entry Discipline
- Emphasis on research / due diligence
- Buy only when you’re confident the company is high quality with fundamentals
- Phrases like “audited it” and “know them fundamentally” are highlighted.
“11 Undervalued Stocks” — Valuations, Signals, and Recommendations
1) S&P Global (SPGI) — Buy
- Down 26% from highs; near the lower end of the 52-week range
- Cheapest historically over ~5 years on P/E and Price to Free Cash Flow
- Valuation notes:
- ~21 forward P/E (described as “almost unheard of” for this quality)
- If excluding disrupted “market intelligence”: ~25–26 forward P/E
- Recommendation: Buy
2) Mastercard (MA) — Buy
- 18% off highs, near the low end of the 52-week range
- Historical bottom over ~5 years on trailing P/E and trailing free cash flow yield
- Earnings catalyst:
- Revenues growing
- EPS growing in the high teens
- Recommendation: Buy
3) Costco (COSTCO) — Not a Buy (Pass)
- Valuation described as middle of historical ranges (P/E and price-to-cash-flow)
- Explicit caution:
- Still at an expensive valuation
- Stock price has “moved way ahead” of intrinsic value → intrinsic value needs to catch up
4) Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) — Buy
- 15% off highs, mid-range of 52-week and valuation metrics (P/E, price to free cash flow)
- Catalysts:
- Beef prices expected to go down as “catalot sizing gets bigger” (transcript uncertainty)
- Organic growth via opening new restaurants
- Recommendation: Buy
5) Microsoft (MSFT) — Buy
- Down 27% from highs; bottom of the 52-week range
- Valuation:
- Very bottom of historical P/E
- Free-cash-flow yield toward the middle due to heavy capex spend
- Macro/strategy lens:
- “Hyperscalers” (MSFT, Amazon, Meta, Google) investing heavily in capex
- Spend framed as more predictable and monetizable via AI/tools/ecosystems
- Recommendation: Buy
6) Moody’s (MCO) — Buy
- Middle of 52-week range; only 17% off high
- Undervalued based on historical P/E and price to free cash flow
- Thesis: data/services are harder to disrupt
- Recommendation: Buy
7) Google (GOOGL) — Hold / Wait for Better Entry (Not a Buy Today)
- 11% off highs, toward high end of 52-week range
- Valuation:
- Undervalued on P/E (relative to its recent history)
- “Super expensive” on price to free cash flow
- Recommendation: Do not buy now; wait
8) ASML (ASML) — Hold (don’t add at current levels)
- “Biggest winner” over trailing year:
- ~$80,000 gains mentioned
- Price distance:
- 3.2% off highs, near the top of its trading range
- Current ~$1,800
- 52-week low mentioned ~$683
- Thesis: fundamentals improving (orders/demand); author still holds
- Explicit caution: “not piling more money… at 3% off its highs”
9) Meta (META) — Buy
- 27% off highs, bottom of 52-week and historical valuation area
- Valuation dynamic:
- Looks cheap on P/E
- Looks expensive on free cash flow yield due to capex/compute spending
- Thesis: despite capex, described as super profitable and beneficial long-term
- Recommendation: Buy
10) Amazon (AMZN) — Buy
- 14% off highs, middle of 52-week range
- Valuation:
- “Very cheap” on P/E (bottom of 5-year range mentioned)
- Cash flows described as weak; author says it “is going into the red based on free cash flow”
- Long-term “multiple levers” thesis (non-exhaustive):
- Starlink
- Robo taxis (“Zuks”)
- Robotics operations
- Logistics, retail, ads
- Prime Video
- Recommendation: Buy
- Explicit price target: go above $300/share
11) Netflix (NFLX) — Buy
- Down 38% from recent peak; near low end of 52-week range
- Undervalued on historical P/E and historical price to free cash flow
- Catalyst / narrative:
- Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition deal canceled → Netflix received $2.8B cash (“cancellation prize”)
- Stock briefly rose above $100, then fell back to ~$82
- Valuation & growth notes:
- P/E: 26
- EPS growing; subscriber/market share gains; growth described as mid teens
- Recommendation: Buy
Additional Named Stock (Still Described as “Buy”)
Duolingo (DUOL) — Buy
- Holder disclosure:
- “Still hold every share… added more” (no sell)
- Valuation/price notes:
- Up to 126 mentioned (near recent momentum) but still 74% off highs
- Trading volatility:
- Low ~88
- High ~489
- Thesis: scaled digital education platform; compared to “app-like” platform winners (e.g., Spotify mentioned as an analogy)
- Recommendation: Buy
Watchlist / “Two More” Considered Buys (Explicitly Not in Initial 9)
Uber Technologies (UBER) — Buy
- 31% off highs; low end of 52-week range
- P/E described as “expensive” but clarified as ~12x to ~18x
- Emphasis: fast earnings growth + favorable price to free cash flow yield
DoorDash (DASH) — Buy
- 46% off highs; bottom of 52-week range
- Low historical P/E and low historical price to free cash flow
- Thesis: operating leverage/scale + grocery expansion
Macro / Inflation and Market Reaction (Numbers & Takeaways)
- Inflation: 4.2% in May (energy costs driving)
- Communication nuance:
- Month-over-month increase “cooled slightly” vs April
- Headline “looks bad,” but later sections suggest it “may have peaked” and be “softening”
- Outlook is conditional:
- Assumes June gasoline prices won’t accelerate
- Key geopolitical risk: renewed conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz
- Market behavior:
- described as very volatile, with drawdowns and rebounds over the week
SpaceX IPO, Tech-Capex Jitters, and Investor “Barometer” Discussion
- SpaceX IPO framed as a major event / “test”
- Commentary by Tom Lee and Dan Ies:
- Near-term volatility described as “jitters/anxiety”
- Also framed as a gauge for the tech trade
- Timing:
- SpaceX IPO described as occurring this Friday (per segment timeframe)
- Dan Ies view:
- Market can support capital raises due to sustained spending/investment arms race
- Author’s stance:
- Not buying SpaceX due to inability to “wrap” valuation
- Prefers Amazon as more understandable
Semiconductor & Memory Angle (ASML Thesis)
- Mechanism described:
- ASML enables smaller chipmaking for CPUs/GPUs
- Memory link:
- Memory demand rises when systems process/store more data
- Memory demand surge:
- Micron Technologies discussed as a beneficiary
- Claim: Micron is becoming a trillion-dollar stock
- Claim: Micron net income this year nearing Google (transcript comparison)
- Capex / orders:
- Memory chip orders “exploding past logic”
- Micron reportedly ordering more EUV machines and building in-house due to a long demand runway
Disclosures / Cautions
- No explicit “not financial advice” line included in the provided subtitles.
- Author’s cautions include:
- Avoid buying hyperscalers if capex is believed unpredictable / low return (risk framing)
- Avoid buying Google at current entry point due to valuation mismatch on free cash flow
- Don’t add to ASML near highs
Instruments / Tickers and Related Entities Mentioned
Index/ETFs
- S&P 500, QQQ
- SPY, VU, SCHG
- ProShares (issuer mentioned)
- “ProShares Ultra SpaceX…” (SPCF implied)
Stocks
- ASML, SPGI, MA, COSTCO, TXRH, MSFT, MCO, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NFLX, DUOL
- UBER, DASH
- Micron Technologies
Other Named Entities (Non-tickers)
- Anthropic, OpenAI
- SpaceX
- Warner Brothers Discovery (deal context)
- Strait of Hormuz
- “crypto investors” (context only)
Key Explicit Numbers Recap (High Signal)
- S&P 500: +7%
- QQQ: +14%
- SPGI: -26% from highs, “cheapest in 5 years”
- ~21 forward P/E
- ~25–26 excluding disruption
- MA: -18% from highs
- EPS growth high teens
- COSTCO: described as expensive (no exact multiple provided)
- TXRH: -15% from highs
- MSFT: -27% from highs
- GOOGL: -11% from highs
- “Super expensive” on free cash flow
- ASML: -3.2% from highs
- Price ~$1,800 vs 52-week low ~$683
- META: -27% from highs
- AMZN: -14% from highs
- Target >$300/share
- NFLX: -38% from peak
- P/E 26
- Growth mid teens
- Price referenced ~$82
- DUOL: 74% off highs
- Recent value mentioned: 126
- Range ~88 to ~489
- UBER: -31% from highs
- Valuation ~12x–18x
- DASH: -46% off highs
- Inflation: 4.2% in May
- Netflix deal payout: $2.8B
- ProShares/SpaceX leveraged product:
- 2x daily returns
- Launch aligned to IPO date June 12th (explicit)
Presenters / Sources Mentioned
- Tom Lee
- Dan Ies
- Mark Mahaney (analyst cited for price targets)
- Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger (quoted about “casino” market concern)
- ProShares (issuer mentioned)
- The Economist (referenced regarding inflation messaging)