Seyed M. Marandi: U.S. ‘Insane’ War Plans — Iran Offers Last-Minute Off-Ramp

Summary

Glenn Diesen and Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi discuss the risk of a renewed US-Israeli war with Iran ahead of the US midterm elections. Diesen cites reports of plans for intensive attacks and Senator Chris Murphy’s characterization of those plans as “crazy.” He argues that such strikes could escalate the conflict without achieving their aims.

Marandi says Iran expects war but believes it is better prepared than the United States. He points to Iran’s expanded missile and drone capabilities and its underground bases. He also claims Iran has a stronger understanding of US politics and institutions than Washington has of Iran. These assessments and predictions are Marandi’s, rather than independently verified findings from the interview.

Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s negotiating position

A central theme is Iran’s leverage over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Marandi says Iran has intensified attacks on vessels and restricted passage to pressure Washington before the elections and gain leverage in negotiations. He argues that a wider war could bring strikes on Gulf states’ infrastructure, disrupt energy and other commodity supplies, and trigger a severe global economic crisis. He also says Iran would retaliate if its civilian or critical infrastructure were attacked.

Marandi describes Iran’s negotiating approach as combining threats with an off-ramp for President Trump. He says Tehran has presented a set of demands—described in the interview as a seven-point plan with additional sub-points—and offered to reopen the Strait within days if the United States accepts its conditions.

He interprets a more respectful tone in a recent message from Vice President J.D. Vance as evidence of US pressure. However, he stresses that Iran does not expect a deal and is preparing for war. He also says renewed conflict could prompt Iran to reconsider its nuclear policy.

Regional consequences

Marandi argues that Gulf governments that aligned with Washington against Iran may have to change course, and that conflict could destabilize them. He cites the potential involvement of Iraqi resistance groups, Hezbollah, and Yemen, while warning that the United States may be unable to contain a broad regional escalation.

On Israel, Marandi says that Netanyahu’s continued leadership could deepen the country’s international isolation. He doubts an opposition government would substantially change Israeli policy and warns that a change in leadership could instead help rehabilitate Israel’s image abroad.

US power and alliances

Diesen and Marandi connect the crisis to wider questions about US power. They argue that the United States is stretching its resources across the Middle East, Ukraine, and East Asia. Withdrawing assets from partners such as Japan and South Korea, they suggest, could make Washington appear unreliable.

They also compare US alliance-building against Iran and Russia, suggesting that regional partners may eventually adjust to new power realities out of self-interest.

A framework for managing the Strait

Marandi says Iran and Oman have already agreed on a framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz. In his account, any reopening would follow a single agreed corridor, with Iran retaining a role in security, access, and fees.

He presents these terms as part of a possible settlement if war is avoided, while warning that a major conflict could threaten the current Gulf governments.

Presenters and contributor

• Glenn Diesen: Host
• Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi: Guest