Van Eck's Q2 2026 Market Outlook: Time To Bargain Hunt | Jan van Eck

Top-line thesis

• VanEck (VANC) argues Q2 2026 presents “bargain-hunt” opportunities driven by structural trends that markets are under‑pricing:
  • AI / compute capex (benefitting semiconductors)
  • Private credit / BDC equities
  • Gold (as a fiscal / sovereign‑risk hedge)
  • Selected commodity exposures
  • India equity exposure
  • Tactical bitcoin buys after miner cycles
• Investment philosophy: thematic investing — markets are broadly efficient but materially shaped by non‑market forces (technology, policy). Fight recency bias; position for structural inflections.

Frameworks, processes and playbooks

Enterprise AI rollout playbook (VanEck’s approach)

• Secure enterprise licenses for multiple LLM vendors so usage is enterprise‑wide (OpenAI + Claude/Anthropic).
• Build domain‑specific “virtual employees” (agents) for compliance, legal, help desk, QA, data reconciliation, coding assistance.
• Engineering controls to manage costs:
  • cache repeated calls
  • tighten prompts
  • improve agent programming to avoid loops
• Measure ROI by translating virtual agents into FTE‑equivalents (time saved, headcount avoided).
• Treat AI spend as R&D: deliberate, exploratory adoption with cross‑team collaboration.

Data → Software → People triad

• Invest heavily in clean, integrated data before or alongside AI deployments.
• Example: PNC bank’s multi‑year, large‑scale spend to normalize acquired systems.

Private‑credit / BDC “structure awareness” playbook

• Use BDCs to obtain private credit exposure without investor redemption risk (structures can hold assets through cycles).
• Stress‑test assumptions: simulate default rates (e.g., 10%) × leverage (e.g., ~2x) × recovery assumptions to model NAV impact.

Commodities futures playbook

• Understand curve shape (backwardation vs contango) and roll yield impact.
• Actively‑managed funds can place exposure further out the curve to capture roll yield in backwardated markets.

Portfolio risk management

• Use hedges (e.g., put options) when a battery of indicators turns negative; unwind tactically when indicators improve.
• Use gold as a hedge for fiscal / geopolitical risk (budget deficits, treaty delinkages).

Key metrics, KPIs and examples called out

VanEck firm metrics

• Assets under management: over $100 billion.
• VanEck AI spend (approx.): ~$350k/year on OpenAI Chat + ~the same on Anthropic/Claude → ~ $700k annually (example).
• Token usage (VanEck): measured daily API token usage rose rapidly — from estimated hundreds of thousands to hundreds of millions and then reported billions of tokens/day after enterprise licensing.
• Number of enterprise customers for Anthropic paying > $1M annually: cited as “doubling” (industry datapoint).
• Example ROI: “half a dozen virtual employees already in production” — equivalent to roughly 6 FTEs (~$1M saved as an illustrative line).

Private credit / BDCs

• Typical BDC leverage: ~2x (simplified).
• Market pricing example: BDCs trading near ~80 cents on the dollar — interpreted as pricing in ~10% default rate with zero recovery (illustrative).
• Historical crisis default spikes: high‑yield defaults can reach 10–20% in crises.
• Third Avenue Value (case): $3.5B fund lost ~80% AUM in weeks (2015 run; fund froze/redemptions → liquidation) — example of liquidity mismatch.
• Alternative asset manager multiples: large compression from peak forward P/Es; Blue Owl offered as example (from premium to ~9x forward earnings; dividend yield ~10% at those prices).

Commodities / futures

• Roll yield history: some periods (e.g., 1970s) delivered +~4%; many decades were negative — roll yield is a significant driver of returns for futures‑based products.
• Oil futures example: near‑term contract $80 → September contract $97 (illustrative) creates roll yield opportunity if prices remain.

Bitcoin cycles

• Miner halving cycle correlation: past post‑halving drawdowns — 2014 (~‑60%), 2018 (~‑72%), 2022 (~‑65%).
• VanEck view: 2026 looked like a weak year in the halving cycle; current price levels seen as a reasonable tactical buy window at a high level.

Concrete examples, case studies & operational takeaways

• VanEck internal AI deployment

  • Enterprise license unlocked broad use; initial estimates undercounted actual compute — usage rose to billions of tokens/day once Claude/Anthropic enterprise license was granted.
  • Programming improvements and more powerful models produced flat aggregate token spend despite many more agents and users (efficiency improvements offset raw volume increases).
  • Practical recommendation: invest in prompt engineering, caching, guardrails and domain‑specific agents before scaling token spend.

• Third Avenue Value (2015)

  • Liquidity mismatch between investor redemptions and illiquid/high‑yield holdings led to a run and forced liquidation.
  • Tactical lesson: align fund liquidity terms with asset liquidity; investors should evaluate structure (open‑end vs BDC vs interval or closed) when buying private credit exposure.

• PNC Bank

  • Large, sustained investment in data harmonization tied to acquisition strategy — example of allocating capital into data infrastructure ahead of AI benefits.

Actionable investment and business recommendations

For corporate leaders / CEOs / CIOs / CPOs

• Treat AI spend as a budget line in IT / R&D; plan for enterprise licenses and incremental headcount or retooling to build agents.
• Prioritize data cleanup and integration — AI ROI depends on high‑quality data; expect a multi‑year resource commitment.
• Pilot virtual employees in back‑office areas (compliance, reconciliation, helpdesk) to validate productivity gains and quantify FTE offsets.
• Invest in prompt engineering and agent governance to control token costs.

For investors / allocators

• Semiconductors: position for continued capex by hyperscalers (VanEck view: capex for 2026–27 is “locked in”).
• Private credit: consider BDCs and public alternative asset managers — valuation dislocations exist (large discounts and PE compression) but analyze structure and NAV transparency; stress‑test default & recovery assumptions.
• Gold: accumulate as a hedge against fiscal and geopolitical risk; multi‑year thesis tied to global wealth / dollar delinkage as well as U.S. fiscal concerns.
• Commodities: if using futures‑based ETFs, understand roll yield; actively managed strategies can seek contracts further out the curve to capture roll benefit in backwardation.
• India equities: maintain or add long‑term exposure (VanEck offers multiple India ETFs, including sector/digital and an actively managed INDZ product).
• Bitcoin: consider a tactical buy window post‑miner cycle; VanEck offers a BTC ETF (ticker noted as HODL/HDL).

Portfolio risk management (practical)

• Use a systematic indicator set (momentum, breadth, macro signals) to trigger tactical hedges (e.g., put options) and unwind hedges as indicators improve.
• Maintain exposure discipline and test downside scenarios for policy shocks (fiscal, geopolitical).

Risks and caveats emphasized

• Risk of overbuilding compute / capacity is possible (analogy to railroads), though VanEck’s base case favors continued corporate demand.
• Long‑term commodity / futures returns can be negative due to roll (contango); product construction matters.
• NAVs on private credit are subject to valuation subjectivity; public market discounts may reflect unresolved valuation risk.
• Geopolitical shocks (e.g., Middle East conflict, oil spikes) can be recessionary for Europe / Asia and prompt sovereign / high‑net‑worth asset liquidation, affecting liquidity.

Practical KPIs to monitor going forward

• Corporate:

  • Number and percentage of departments with live agents
  • Estimated FTE‑equivalent productivity gains
  • Annual AI license & token spend vs time saved / revenue uplift

• Markets:

  • BDC price / NAV discount
  • High‑yield default rates and option‑adjusted spreads
  • Hyperscaler capex forecasts for 2026–27
  • Gold correlation to fiscal deficit metrics
  • Curve shape for key commodity futures (contango vs backwardation)

• AI vendor metrics:

  • Enterprise customers paying > $1M p.a.
  • Vendor reported run‑rate revenue growth and token pricing / availability transparency

Presenters and primary sources referenced

• Presenters:

  • Jan van Eck (CEO, VanEck) — primary presenter
  • Jonathan Wang (CTO, VanEck) — AI engineering, token usage and implementation
  • Adam Tagert (host, Thoughtful Money)
  • New Harbor Financial panel: John Lodra and Mike Preston

• Sources referenced in the discussion:

  • VanEck internal AI usage data and slide deck (Thoughtful Money distribution)
  • Historical case: Third Avenue Value mutual fund run (2015)
  • PNC Bank CEO comments on multi‑year data spend
  • Public market examples: Nvidia (semiconductor capex beneficiary), Blue Owl (alternative asset manager valuation)
  • Commodity futures curve and roll yield examples (oil illustration)
  • Bitcoin miner halving cycle historical returns (2014, 2018, 2022)

Follow‑up materials referenced (available in source discussion)

• VanEck token usage timeline and slide deck
• BDC price / NAV charts and stress‑test examples
• Hyperscaler capex chart for 2026–27
• Commodity futures curve examples and roll yield tables
• Bitcoin halving cycle performance charts