Are Witkoff & Kushner Selling Out Ukraine? /Pascal Lottaz

Summary

Daniel Davis and guest Pascal Lottaz discuss the war in Ukraine, US diplomacy, conflicts in the Middle East, and the limits of American power.

Ukraine and Reported US–Russia Economic Talks

Davis says Volodymyr Zelensky is concerned that Washington may be discussing economic arrangements with Moscow without Kyiv. Lottaz calls a reported proposal for a US company to buy Russian gas through Nord Stream and resell it to Europe as “American” gas bizarre and speculative. He suggests it may be an idea floated by business interests rather than an imminent policy.

The Military Situation and Diplomacy

Lottaz argues that Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and advances in the east point to a larger, gradual offensive. He interprets a visit to Kyiv by senior NATO representatives as a sign of Western concern about the battlefield situation, but says NATO is unlikely to reverse it. Davis agrees that Ukraine’s shrinking resources and manpower leave it with few ways to stop Russia’s progress.

Neutrality as a Possible Settlement

Lottaz contends that a neutral Ukraine could have avoided the conflict, and that neutrality remains the only realistic basis for a durable settlement. He cites Russia’s December 2021 security proposals and draft agreements negotiated in 2022 as opportunities that, in his view, were rejected by Western governments. He argues that the West’s insistence on Ukraine aligning with NATO helped prolong the war. Davis agrees that a settlement may come only after further costs and failures.

Western Support and the War’s Narrative

Lottaz rejects Zelensky’s suggestion that greater access to Starlink could change the military balance, arguing that Ukraine already receives extensive Western intelligence and support. He also dismisses claims that a single new weapons system could turn the war around. In his view, Western governments may eventually shift blame onto Ukraine and its leadership as the military situation worsens.

Protests in France

Lottaz describes growing demonstrations, including student and labor protests, and says anger over underfunded public services is being intensified by government spending on Ukraine. He sees this as part of a wider European political problem: governments claim there is not enough money for domestic needs while continuing to fund the war.

Saudi Arabia and Yemen

The discussion turns to reports of Houthi attacks and the vulnerability of Saudi infrastructure. Lottaz argues that Yemen has prepared for a prolonged conflict, including by building underground facilities, while Saudi Arabia is in a weak position.

He doubts that a security arrangement involving Turkey and Pakistan could quickly produce an effective military force, noting that integrating troops, equipment, and communications would take substantial time. He characterizes the alliance as political posturing rather than an immediate solution on the battlefield.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Lottaz says Iran is prepared for a long confrontation and that military pressure alone is unlikely to make it accept Washington’s terms. He criticizes the US for not pursuing an earlier diplomatic opening and warns that escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could carry major economic and military costs.

He also describes Iran’s capacity to retaliate against critical infrastructure in Israel and the Gulf as a deterrent, while emphasizing the catastrophic consequences such attacks could have.

The International Criminal Court

Responding to Marco Rubio’s threat to dismantle the ICC, Lottaz says US sanctions and pressure on judges and staff have not destroyed the court, which is supported by member states under the Rome Statute. He highlights what he sees as a double standard: Western governments welcomed the ICC’s action against Vladimir Putin but opposed its cases involving Israeli leaders.

He argues that pressuring allied countries to undermine the court could conflict with their legal obligations.

Limits of US Power

Davis and Lottaz agree that the United States retains substantial military power but faces limits, particularly in ammunition supplies and the ability to sustain multiple wars. Lottaz says the US can still wage war and inflict major damage, but doubts it can reliably compel its opponents to surrender. They argue that recognizing those limits could make diplomacy and neutral arrangements more attractive.

Presenters and Contributors

• Daniel Davis: Presenter
• Pascal Lottaz: Guest