Bitcoin: Judgement Day Has Arrived

Summary

Jason Pizzino frames Bitcoin’s move as a potential transition from a macro bear market to a bull market, but says the transition still needs confirmation. His main focus is whether Bitcoin can break above a key price-and-time threshold. He considers a pullback normal as long as market structure holds.

Bitcoin: Levels and Framework

• Bitcoin closed the week around $86,000, its strongest weekly close since roughly January. A rise of about 2% on Sunday came on low weekend volume.
• The immediate resistance zone is $87,000–$87,400. Pizzino says a move above $87,400 would confirm the long-term “rebalance” signal; a close above that level is not strictly required. He also identifies a 50% extension near $87,200.
• His time-and-price method looks for a sufficiently large price advance over a defined period as evidence that buyers are gaining control:
  • He cites a roughly 90-day window from a low on July 1, with a move of about $23,000.
  • The relevant comparison high is around $87,400, set on September 21.
  • Clearing that high would confirm the signal, in his view.

Pizzino is watching several potential pullback levels:

• Holding above about $82,000 would be a strong sign.
• Around $74,000 would be a normal, though less favorable, retracement level.
• The $57,000–$67,000 area is a deeper support and buyer zone.
• A sustained move below $67,000 would tilt the outlook toward sellers and raise the risk of a failed rebound.

Pizzino emphasizes that pullbacks and consolidation are healthy in a bull market. He is more concerned about a breakdown in market structure or insufficient consolidation before another advance. His trading plan calls for taking a position when specified breakout levels are crossed, even though he remains uncertain about whether Bitcoin will reach new highs.

Other Crypto and Market Indicators

• Ethereum (ETH): ETH is holding its broader move, but Pizzino is uncertain about a new all-time high. He notes that both the 2021 and 2025 highs were around $4,800. A brief move to about $4,900 did not close above prior resistance and was followed by a significant pullback.
• Solana (SOL): SOL was quoted around $120. Pizzino cites a breakout near the same time as Bitcoin and identifies $140–$150, $180 (a 50% level), and prior highs near $250 as reference points. He describes potential moves between these levels as trading opportunities, while noting that the broader macro trend may still be bearish.
• Stablecoin dominance: Pizzino describes the indicator as bearish, which he considers supportive for Bitcoin and crypto. He cites a current range of about 6.2%–6.5% for one measure and around 9%–9.4% as a level to watch for USDT dominance. A rise in USDT dominance could signal a Bitcoin pullback or profit-taking, while a break below the cited highs would be more favorable for risk assets. Combined stablecoin dominance is about 8.8%, near a 50% level.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Both had strong weekly closes, with volume recovering. The Nasdaq made a new all-time high.
• U.S. dollar: The dollar had three consecutive green weeks, with above-average volume in the latest week, and was approaching resistance around 101.8 and a 50% level. Pizzino describes its broader structure as a lower high but says its recent strength had not yet weakened Bitcoin, ETH, SOL, or other altcoins. He would like to see Bitcoin rise if the dollar pulls back.
• Gold: Pizzino says gold had fallen for five weeks and was entering a sixth. He cites $4,200 as a level he would ideally like it to hold above and says he plans to provide a further update.

Cycle Context and Timing

• Bitcoin had recorded three consecutive green months and a quarterly breakout above the previous quarter’s high. Pizzino views this as evidence consistent with a significant low, while stressing that the period is not over.
• He notes that October has historically been a green month about 70% of the time and was up around 1.4% at the time of recording.
• He compares the current setup with prior cycles, including the 2023 higher low during banking-sector stress and earlier periods when breakouts were followed by pullbacks and months of consolidation.
• He sees early 2027 as a possible timeframe for another advance after a potential pullback and consolidation, not as a certainty.

Cautions and Disclosures

Pizzino repeatedly says he cannot know what will happen next and is assessing probabilities rather than making certain forecasts. He does not claim that Bitcoin or ETH will reach new all-time highs.

He promotes a discounted TIA Pro membership; this is promotional content. No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

Presenter/source: Jason Pizzino, TIA Investor.