Конфликт России с Европой? Мира не будет? Кто заберет Донбасс? / Ширяев

Summary

Military commentator Valery Shiryaev argues that Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink exposes a major vulnerability. The network became integral to Ukrainian military communications, while restrictions on its use by fast-moving drones showed how the service could also be used as leverage. In his view, the episode reflects Ukraine’s lack of an independent alternative and demonstrated its dependence on the United States. He distinguishes the general Starlink network from the more costly Starshield service, though the subtitles’ technical details are unclear.

Negotiations and the battlefield

Shiryaev sees little sign that either side is ready to change its core position. He says Moscow’s stated territorial focus is the remaining part of Donetsk region, while Kyiv continues to favor freezing the front line rather than formally ceding territory. He disputes the claim that Zelensky has agreed to surrender a quarter of Ukraine, saying Crimea may be included in that calculation and that Zelensky has not explicitly agreed to give up the rest of Donetsk. Shiryaev expects any ceasefire to be followed by difficult, prolonged talks about Ukraine’s status and Europe’s security arrangements.

He describes Russia’s goal of taking full control of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions as exceptionally difficult given the forces available. He also says Ukraine is holding its own in some parts of the front and can counterattack locally, but believes Russia can sustain a prolonged war of attrition. He rejects Donald Trump’s account of the 2022 advance on Kyiv as distorted: according to Shiryaev, the Russian column was held up by a huge traffic jam, not mud.

Infrastructure and air defense

Shiryaev expects strikes on infrastructure to remain part of the war. He says Ukraine’s long-range drones can reach Russian targets, but their range and payload limit their ability to cause decisive strategic damage. He argues that Russia’s response has hit Ukrainian industry and trade, and predicts further attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and ports.

He says Russian businesses can help fund protection for facilities such as oil refineries, with the military operating the weapons. He expects the costs ultimately to be passed on to consumers. In his view, organized air defenses can intercept slow, low-flying drones, but Russia was slow to prepare.

Shiryaev characterizes Ukrainian efforts to disrupt Russian airport operations as having limited practical impact and mainly a public-relations effect. Sustained disruption would require a continuous supply of drones, he says, while attacks on civilian aviation are broadly viewed as taboo by Ukraine’s partners.

Personnel and weapons

Shiryaev dismisses recurring mobilization rumors as a cycle of speculation, while noting that both armies are aging. He estimates that Ukraine loses around 7,000 more personnel each month than it recruits, whereas Russian recruitment roughly balances losses.

He also criticizes Ukrainian weapons-development projects as expensive and questions the effectiveness and production scale of some systems. At the same time, he acknowledges that Ukraine already uses cruise missiles and may seek to expand production.

Escalation and outlook

Shiryaev rejects reports that Russia seriously considered using tactical nuclear weapons early in the invasion, calling them disinformation. He considers the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine highly unlikely, and says direct Russia–NATO fighting would be so dangerous that both sides would move quickly to stop it.

In his view, the risk of a wider European conflict depends heavily on the terms of any settlement. An agreement acceptable to Russia could reduce the danger, while terms framed as a strategic defeat for Russia would make a durable peace unlikely.

Shiryaev’s forecast is that fighting will continue through the winter, including Russian offensives and attacks on Ukrainian energy and port infrastructure. He does not expect peace by the end of 2026 or early 2027, and says the duration of the war is now difficult to predict. He believes Ukraine’s position could worsen if Western funding and military support decline, though he credits it with continuing to resist and adapt.

Presenters and contributors

• Marianna Minsker — presenter
• Valery Shiryaev — military commentator and guest