Amazon Aktie -15% Crash: Quartalszahlen im kritischen Blick | Michael von AlleAktien

Summary

Michael C. Jakob reviews Amazon’s latest quarterly results after the stock fell about 10%, arguing that the sell-off is an opportunity. He says he personally has more than €5 million invested in Amazon and describes the shares as “extremely worth buying.” His central thesis is that investors should focus less on retail revenue and more on AWS, which he presents as Amazon’s main profit engine.

Company Performance and Segments

• Revenue: Quarterly sales were about $200 billion, up 12% year over year. Trailing-12-month (TTM) revenue growth was described as about 15%.
• Operating income: Quarterly operating income rose from roughly $17 billion to $28 billion, up more than 61% year over year. TTM operating-income growth was cited at 37%.
• Net income: The speaker gives mixed TTM comparisons—down 2% in one comparison and up 76% in another. The exact period or measure is unclear in the subtitles.
• Amazon’s three reporting segments are North America retail, international retail, and AWS. The speaker says retail accounts for more than 75% of revenue, while AWS generates the majority of operating profit.
• North America: Revenue was about $112.9 billion, up 6%. Operating income was $8.7 billion, up 80%, implying a margin of roughly 7.7%.
• International: Revenue was about $43.1 billion and operating income was $1.6 billion, implying a margin near 3.7%. The speaker characterizes international retail as much less profitable than the U.S. business.
• AWS: Revenue was about $46 billion, with revenue growth of 40% and operating-income growth of 55%. The speaker cites operating income of $17.8 billion. These figures imply an operating margin of about 39%, although the speaker’s verbal margin estimate is inconsistent and appears to range from roughly 36% to 50%.

The speaker emphasizes retail seasonality: the fourth quarter benefits from holiday shopping, while the third quarter is typically weaker. He recommends using TTM figures to smooth seasonal effects.

AWS, Competition, and Investment

• AWS is described as the market leader by revenue, but the speaker criticizes its growth as slower than that of competitors.
• Cloud growth figures cited include AWS at 40%, Microsoft at 50% (elsewhere about 48%), Oracle at 62%—with Oracle’s infrastructure-as-a-service growth reportedly above 121%—and Google Cloud above 100%.
• Cloud revenue figures cited are approximately $46 billion for AWS, $33 billion for Microsoft, and $30 billion for Alphabet. The precise periods are not made clear.
• The speaker says AWS helped pioneer cloud computing but argues that Amazon should invest more aggressively to defend its position and capture AI-related demand.
• Amazon’s forward investment plan is cited at about $220 billion. The speaker describes this as a large commitment—roughly four years of profits—but supports investing in data centers rather than prioritizing share buybacks.
• He claims data centers can pay back in 18–24 months, with potentially very high returns thereafter. He expects rising AI and computing demand to support continued cloud growth and says he does not expect near-term overcapacity.
• He argues that cloud providers can benefit regardless of which AI model or chatbot wins, since AI services need computing infrastructure. He also says investment will weigh on free cash flow in the short term but considers reinvestment preferable to leaving cash in government bonds yielding roughly 3–5%.

Valuation, Price Action, and Outlook

• The stock is described as having traded near $250 before falling to around $222—a drop of roughly 10%.
• The speaker cites a current P/E ratio of about 35, but also refers to a P/E of roughly 12 on a 2030-oriented valuation basis. The precise valuation method is not explained.
• He claims Amazon is more than 30% below fair value and says the decline is a normal fluctuation for a technology stock. He notes that similar 10% drops had occurred several times during the year.
• He believes the shares could recover quickly once investors recognize the company’s earnings potential, though this could take months or one to two years. He suggests a rapid 40% gain over a week or two is possible, using Meta as an analogy; this is presented as a possibility, not a forecast supported by a stated valuation model.
• Management guidance for the following quarter is quoted as:
  • Net sales: $240–247 billion, up 12–16% year over year.
  • Operating income: $28.5–33.5 billion. The subtitles say “trillion,” which appears to be a transcription error given the surrounding figures.
  • Continued investment: About $220 billion.

Framework and Cautions

The speaker’s approach is to:

• Separate Amazon’s results into North America retail, international retail, and AWS.
• Compare revenue growth with operating-income growth and margins by segment.
• Use TTM results to account for retail seasonality.
• Focus particularly on AWS growth, profitability, competitive position, and capital investment, rather than judging Amazon only by consolidated revenue growth.
• Consider the trade-off between lower near-term free cash flow from investment and potential long-term returns.

Key cautions include AWS growing more slowly than several cloud competitors, relatively low profitability in international retail, and the possibility that Amazon’s large investment program will reduce free cash flow in the near term. The speaker also says the timing of any share-price recovery is uncertain.

Assets, Companies, and Instruments Mentioned

• Amazon / AWS (AMZN)
• Microsoft / Azure (MSFT)
• Alphabet / Google Cloud (GOOGL/GOOG)
• Oracle (ORCL)
• Meta (META)
• MercadoLibre (MELI), Alibaba (BABA), Tencent (0700.HK / TCEHY), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT)
• Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM), Qualcomm (QCOM), Mastercard (MA), and Visa (V)

Other references include Twitch, Kindle, AI models and chatbots, data centers, GPUs, CPUs, government bonds, and share buybacks.

Disclosures

There is no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer in the subtitles. The speaker discloses that he personally holds a substantial Amazon position and discusses his own portfolio. He also promotes AlleAktien’s paid investor community and training, as well as a free investing workshop. His claim of an average 30–35% return with Microsoft over the past ten years is a personal performance claim.

Presenter and sources: Michael C. Jakob of AlleAktien. He refers to Amazon Investor Relations materials, the earnings release and webcast slides, SEC-approved filings, and Eulerpool data.