TRUMP MAY BE ASSASSINATED - w/ Col. Macgregor

Summary of main arguments and news/commentary

• Iran suspends nuclear-negotiation trip to Switzerland: As the interview goes live, it is reported that Iran has canceled its delegation’s trip to Switzerland for the opening round of nuclear talks. The reason given—via Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen—is ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon. Iran argues these operations violate the MOU/ceasefire terms, which require an immediate end to hostilities across fronts. Iran therefore claims there is “nothing to go to Geneva for.”

• Trump calls for a broader ceasefire (including Lebanon): The discussion notes that Trump posted a demand for a complete ceasefire across fronts involving Lebanon/Hezbollah/Israel, framing this as relevant to why Iran is refusing to proceed.

• “Israel as an obstacle” to a US-Iran deal: The central analytical theme is whether Prime Minister Netanyahu and pro-Israel influence in Washington can prevent or reshape any US-Iran agreement. A CNN report is referenced, claiming Netanyahu is lobbying to influence the final terms of a US-Iran deal, including pressuring Trump through allies/intermediaries in Washington.

• Claim: US-Israel influence may be pushing the US toward war: Col. Macgregor argues that Israeli leadership and wealthy US backers appear to see current events as a “test of Jewish power,” and that this is a strategic mistake. He claims their influence has already dragged the US into conflict and could push President Trump toward continued escalation against Iran.

• Col. Macgregor’s view: Trump likely wants closure, not war: Macgregor suggests Trump and Iran have reached a point where further war is pointless. He frames Trump as reluctant to use extreme force (including nuclear escalation). Macgregor describes Trump’s posture as having shifted—from an initial preference to end the conflict, to becoming “overwhelmed,” and finally to seeking an end through an MOU-type framework.

• A key obstacle is Israel’s behavior during negotiations: Macgregor emphasizes that the deal framework is rough, and while it aligns with Trump’s instincts (non-interference, force reduction), Israel’s continued actions—especially in Lebanon/Gaza—create an ongoing breaking point for diplomacy.

• Argument about regional power shifts (Iran vs. Turkey): Macgregor expands beyond US-Iran bargaining and argues that the Middle East outcome is shaped by long-term regional trends:

  • He predicts Iran and Turkey will be dominant powers after the conflict.
  • He claims Israel’s alleged existential focus on Iran is misdirected, arguing Iran is more “rational/coexisting,” while Turkey is the tougher potential rival.
  • He argues Western strategies based on older models of controlling regions are outdated due to modern ISR-strike capabilities and stand-off systems.

• Why he thinks Trump can resist pressure: He repeatedly frames Trump as a dealmaker who will cut losses and avoid escalation when military solutions fail. Even if Israel attempts to pressure Trump via US political/media channels, he believes Trump will try to bring the chapter to closure.

• Concerns about Trump’s personal safety and “duress”: The interview shifts to a speculative discussion about whether Trump is under increasing threat. Macgregor states he is more afraid about the president’s safety than before, citing reports from others that various figures believe Trump is under duress. He speculates about mechanisms for escalation—from investigations and scandal pressure to more extreme actions—while stressing he lacks “special intelligence.”

• Israel-Iran escalation scenario discussed: A hypothetical is raised: if Israel sabotages the ceasefire/deal by striking Lebanon and Iran retaliates, could Trump refuse even defensive support (e.g., intercepting Iranian missiles), potentially leaving Israel without backing and forcing recalculation? Macgregor responds that this scenario is already close to happening and argues Israel would likely intensify attacks because it sees Hezbollah as existential—requiring US support (munitions/intelligence). He also claims that if Trump refuses support, Netanyahu may intensify political pressure inside Washington.

• System critique: institutional brakes on presidential power: Macgregor argues presidents have less direct agency than people assume, due to bureaucratic/service dynamics, lobbying, and Senate confirmation politics. He contends that the political system often prevents the appointment of “high-caliber” dissenters and encourages safe, compliant figures—especially during peacetime—while war emergencies can bring “booted out” talent back.

• Closing: new Substack preview: He mentions an upcoming Substack piece about the “tectonic shift” in global power and how US influence has declined, asserting that Iran has “won the war” strategically by controlling the Strait and being “humbled, but not broken.”

Presenters / contributors

• Col. Macgregor (interviewee; speaker throughout)
• Mario (host/interviewer; referenced as “Mario” multiple times)