Larry Williams: Is a Year-End Stock Market Rally Coming?

Market Outlook

Larry Williams describes a divided market: the Dow, the New York Stock Exchange index, and many quality stocks had weakened, while the Nasdaq and popular high-tech stocks were stronger. He cautions against assuming the weakest index will lead a rebound. In his view, the Dow had about an 80% chance of lagging the strongest stocks in a short-term rally. He also recommends reviewing the most recent 10–15 days for signs of market rotation.

Williams expects a year-end rally in the Dow, citing an approaching cycle low and oversold conditions. His broader outlook is that stocks will rise for the rest of the year. He says a bear market will come eventually, but that it has not arrived yet.

Stock-Specific Setups

The following are Williams’s assessments and historical-pattern estimates, not guarantees:

• IBM (IBM): Seasonal strength and professional buying support the setup. Williams says IBM rose during this period in about 72% of instances over the past 20–30 years. He mentions holding shares, buying calls, or selling puts as possible approaches, while noting that he is not an options expert.
• Broadcom (AVGO): Williams cites an 88% historical tendency to rise from October into the beginning of the year. He sees seasonality and cycles aligning with an undervaluation signal and professional buying.
• Mondelez (MDLZ): A Halloween-to-year-end seasonal pattern has been positive about 75% of the time, though Williams stresses that it has not worked every year.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB): Williams cites an 80% historical tendency to rise from mid-October through year-end. He also points to favorable seasonality, professional buying, and an undervaluation signal, and mentions that Motley Fool has promoted the stock.
• Nike (NKE): Williams cites a 77% historical tendency to rise from late October through March. The setup includes professional accumulation, a “pinch-punch” indicator entering its buy zone, and negative analyst sentiment after a period of heavy bullishness. He also describes Nike as relatively attractive on price-to-sales and P/E measures. Seasonality is mixed, and he cautions that cycles are not reliable on their own.
• Home Depot (HD): Williams sees professional buying during a seasonal low, very bearish analyst sentiment, and a cycle that has historically favored a rally through March 76% of the time. He says the conditions look favorable but wants price confirmation before entering.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Williams is more cautious near term. He describes a seasonal and short-term cyclical tendency toward weakness around October–November and into year-end, followed by a possible return to strength near the beginning of the year. He notes very bullish adviser sentiment—roughly 80% to 100% in the examples shown—as a potential contrary signal. His earlier 2026 cycle forecast anticipated strength from around mid-February to October, with favorable entry periods around March and July; he says a July–August rally followed.
• Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS): Williams highlights insider buying he recalls as roughly $500,000 or more, a “pinch-punch” indicator entering its buy zone, and a seasonal and cyclical rally pattern.

Williams’s Stock-Selection Framework

Williams argues for combining signals rather than relying on a single indicator such as RSI, Williams %R, volume, or a moving average:

1. Assess the market regime and relative strength. Compare major indexes and review recent price action for signs of rotation.
2. Identify a reason to select the stock. Examples include fundamentals, insider buying, or an external research recommendation.
3. Look for confirming evidence. Consider seasonal patterns, cycle analysis, money flow or professional accumulation, valuation, and analyst sentiment.
4. Treat patterns as probabilities, not certainties. Williams says cycles are imperfect and favorable conditions do not guarantee an immediate rally.
5. Wait for price confirmation. For Home Depot, for example, he says he would look for a move above a moving average or trendline, or higher short-term lows, rather than buying solely because the price has fallen.

Risks, Caveats, and Disclosures

Williams repeatedly says that trading is risky, no single indicator is sufficient, and cycles are not perfect. He does not provide an explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer. The video also includes a StockCharts promotion for Williams’s indicators and charting tools.

Presenters and Sources

• Larry Williams: Market analysis and stock discussion.
• Grayson Rose: Brief StockCharts introduction and product promotion.

Referenced sources and tools include StockCharts.com, Timing Solutions, and Motley Fool.