Solving Basketball - Exposing the NBA’s Biggest Inefficiency

Summary

This video analyzes basketball strategy rather than documenting a single match. Its central argument is that basketball has not been “solved”: small changes can produce very different results, creating new strategic opportunities.

Why Basketball Remains Unsolved (00:00–02:35)

The narrator compares basketball to a chaotic system in which tiny differences can lead to large changes in outcomes. He argues that uncertainty also creates inefficiencies teams can exploit.

International Play as a Potential Clue (02:35–05:20)

The video points to ball movement and passing reversals as differences between some international teams and North American teams. It notes that the United States and Canada ranked last among the tournament’s top 25 teams in passing, then highlights Canada’s losses to Brazil and Serbia.

Serbia, despite having relatively few NBA players and playing without Nikola Jokić, overwhelmed Canada. The narrator suggests the results may reflect a combination of upsets, undervalued international players, and less efficient play by NBA-heavy teams.

The Spurs as a Case Study (05:20–06:52)

The video examines 74 players who played for both the San Antonio Spurs and other NBA teams, excluding Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginóbili. Of those players, 49 had a higher effective field-goal percentage with the Spurs than their career average, and 39 recorded their best shooting season there.

The narrator says this could reflect player selection, the Spurs’ system, or both. Either way, he argues, it illustrates the value of finding and developing opportunities others miss.

Winning and Financial Incentives (06:52–09:12)

Against the idea that NBA teams care more about entertainment than winning, the video argues that winning itself creates value through playoff revenue, higher ticket prices, better television deals, and star power.

The narrator cites the Golden State Warriors’ rise in value alongside their success, including a fourth championship in eight years. He presents their ascent as an example of how discovering an overlooked advantage can pay off.

Coaching Authority as an NBA Weakness (09:12–12:05)

The video argues that NBA coaches often lack the authority to establish and sustain a system. It cites the firings of Mike Budenholzer and Monty Williams, among others, and suggests that injuries, declining results, or conflict with star players can put coaches’ jobs at risk.

San Antonio, Golden State, and Miami are presented as exceptions where coaches have had more room to lead. The narrator especially highlights Erik Spoelstra, who remained in Miami after LeBron James left and later took less highly valued rosters to two Finals.

A Possible Strategic Advantage (12:05 onward)

Comparing offensive efficiency, the narrator says EuroLeague teams score more points per possession than NBA teams, despite rules that can favor defense. He notes that EuroLeague possessions average about three seconds longer, suggesting greater patience in shot selection.

He proposes that NBA teams—especially smaller-market teams less able to attract top free agents—could benefit from more systematic offense and stronger coaching authority. A clip of Draymond Green describing Steve Kerr’s emphasis on passing supports the idea that players can buy into a structured system.

The video closes by framing coach autonomy as a potentially major, overlooked inefficiency: giving coaches the authority to do their jobs could help teams win more with less.

Presenter and Sources Mentioned

Michael MacKelvie (presenter and narrator); Michael Lewis’s Moneyball; Draymond Green (quoted in a clip); and the NBA, EuroLeague, and FIBA/international basketball comparisons discussed in the video.