Венедиктов: справедливого мира не будет | Интервью про Путина, Зеленского, Трампа и Донбасс

Summary

In this interview, journalist Alexey Venediktov discusses Russian public opinion, the Kremlin, the war in Ukraine, and the prospects for negotiations. His assessments are opinions and, in several cases, are based on reports or conversations he says he has had.

Life and public opinion in Moscow

Venediktov describes a climate of anxiety, with inflation and falling consumer spending affecting businesses such as restaurants and bookstores. He says Moscow has also become more loyal to the Kremlin as some anti-war residents have left and veterans and officials have moved in.

He distinguishes support for the government from support for continuing the war. Many Russians may want the fighting to stop, he says, without having considered what terms that would require.

Strikes and escalation

In Venediktov’s view, Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure can rally people around the Kremlin rather than turn them against it. He argues that some residents’ frustration is directed at the government for failing to retaliate more forcefully.

He cautions that worsening conditions could increase anti-Putin sentiment, but does not predict an imminent coup or a clear shift in public opinion.

How the Kremlin works

Venediktov portrays Putin as reliant on a narrow circle and vulnerable to filtered or misleading information. He describes two loyal factions in the Russian state: security officials, who prioritize control, and political or administrative figures, who emphasize governance and development. He says the security faction has been gaining influence.

He also characterizes Russia’s bureaucracy as focused on passing decisions up and down the hierarchy rather than taking responsibility.

Negotiations and possible outcomes

Venediktov argues that a ceasefire is not the same as peace and that there will be no “just” or clean resolution. He expects any end to active fighting to involve compromise, while the underlying conflict may remain frozen for years.

He says Putin is particularly unwilling to relinquish Russia’s claim to the remaining part of Donbas. Putin also cares about the status of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the role of the Russian language. Other issues, including arrangements around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, might be addressed through negotiated mechanisms.

Venediktov’s forecast that a cessation of hostilities could be possible by the end of the year is a time-specific prediction made during the interview.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky

Venediktov says Trump is pursuing what he sees as US interests, and that analyzing Trump’s motives matters less than examining what he actually does. He expects Trump to pressure both sides to stop fighting.

Venediktov believes Putin would meet Zelensky if circumstances made it useful, and says Zelensky’s continued presidency would not by itself prevent talks. He also portrays Zelensky as tired and under pressure, while noting that wartime elections would be difficult to organize fairly.

Russian officials and political space

Venediktov says senior officials have little practical ability to leave Russia, given the threat of prosecution at home and sanctions abroad. He describes Sergei Shoigu as politically vulnerable and suggests that younger officials are quietly rising through the bureaucracy.

He expects restrictions and repression to worsen as security agencies gain sway. He also says Russian media are overwhelmingly aligned with the state, while independent outlets in exile have a comparatively limited audience inside Russia.

War, media, and public emotion

Venediktov argues that war generates anger, fear, and hatred—emotions that politicians and media outlets can exploit for attention and influence. He contrasts journalists, who should be willing to resist algorithm-driven sensationalism, with propagandists, who use it deliberately.

He also criticizes the censorship of books in Russia, describing blacked-out passages and removals from libraries as evidence of a broader, poorly organized expansion of censorship.

Prisoner exchanges and Belarus

Venediktov stresses that exchanges are more complicated than simple swaps of prisoners for sanctions relief. He disputes the claim that Alexei Navalny was part of the proposed exchange involving Vadim Krasikov, saying the Americans had sought the return of their own citizens and that Krasikov’s release involved separate negotiations with Germany.

He presents Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko as a pragmatic intermediary who uses prisoner releases to bargain, rather than as someone acting from a single, consistent principle.

Israel and the wider region

Discussing Israel after the October 7 attack, Venediktov says Israeli society remains deeply affected by the trauma, but argues that Israel has failed to explain its position effectively to international audiences. He attributes some of the growth in pro-Palestinian sentiment to a common perception of Palestinians as the weaker side and to what he describes as Qatari influence in universities and media.

He sees no near-term settlement and suggests that, as with Cyprus or Korea, a long period without fighting may still fall short of a political resolution.

Presenters and contributors

• Ilya Varlamov: Interviewer and presenter
• Alexey Venediktov: Guest