Richard Wolff: Collapse - Iran Is the Graveyard of the U.S. Empire

Overview

Richard Wolff argues that the Trump–Xi meeting in Beijing reflects a broader historical transition: the decline of U.S. imperial dominance and the relative rise of China. He frames this as a shift in global power and economic capability, not merely diplomacy—emphasizing that the U.S. “wants” free trade and multilateralism less than it wants to contain China.

Core claims about the meeting and global power shift

• U.S. weakness vs. Chinese confidence: Wolff suggests China believes it has time on its side, while the U.S. tries to preserve privileges and momentum as its position worsens.
• Transition from U.S.-led order: He characterizes the moment as the end of the American empire’s post–World War II dominance and the move toward multipolarity. This, he argues, makes the world less stable for both the U.S. and global governance.

Why Wolff says China’s model matters

Wolff presents China as having a unique “hybrid” developmental system:

• Not U.S.-style capitalism: Private enterprise is important, but not the near-universal form of production.
• Not Soviet-style state ownership: The government does not directly own and operate all industry and agriculture.
• Hybrid structure: Roughly half private capitalist enterprises and half state-owned enterprises, managed by a powerful government supervised by the Communist Party of China.

He argues this hybrid approach enabled China’s rapid development—from extreme poverty to higher living standards—and that many countries abroad lack a comparable alternative success story to emulate.

Cold War ideology and the “universal path” assumption

Wolff argues that Cold War ideological categories hardened into an assumption that development requires becoming “more like us” (capitalist, democratic, etc.). He also claims:

• U.S. militarization helps explain why those freedoms tend to erode over time.
• The ideological labels no longer map cleanly onto reality.

Despite this, he insists China’s results are persuasive even if the ideology does not fit older categories.

Iran as a key example of U.S. failure

A major focus is the U.S. strategy toward Iran:

• The “fantasy” of regime change: Wolff argues Washington expected regime change to produce favorable outcomes—such as U.S.-controlled access to Iranian oil and reduced influence from Iran’s regional allies.
• Backfire: He claims this strategy backfired, contributing to broader regional destruction and undermining relationships with Gulf states.
• Bases seen as liabilities: He argues U.S. pressure has led Gulf countries to view American bases not as protection, but as a target.
• Diversification: He suggests many Gulf states are already diversifying toward trade with China.
• Motivation beyond oil urgency: He argues China’s position is driven more by preventing long-term disruption and explosive escalation than by immediate oil needs.

Multipolar future and managing the “Thucydides trap”

Wolff addresses the risk of confrontation between a rising power and a declining one—often described as a “Thucydides trap” dynamic:

• China’s goal: Avoid warfare (“don’t rock the boat”), manage crises, preserve stability, and let growth outlast U.S. decline.
• U.S. goal: Restore or resuscitate the empire, even if that means pursuing hard-power projects that no longer succeed (he points to Iran and other interventions as examples).

He suggests that U.S. desperation could push it to attempt efforts elsewhere once Iran fails (he speculates about Cuba as an example). Still, he argues the underlying imperial strategy is losing capacity.

U.S. domestic constraints and limits to further wars

Wolff argues that U.S. domestic conditions constrain further conflict:

• He claims popular opinion is increasingly against war due to economic concerns and costs.
• He portrays Trump’s focus on symbolic victories (e.g., the White House ballroom story) as emblematic of leadership attempting to compensate for declining real power.

Overall conclusion

Wolff’s bottom line is that the U.S. empire is structurally weakening, and its attempts to control energy and engineer regime change are increasingly futile and damaging. He portrays the Iran episode (as interpreted in the video) as a “strategic defeat” whose effects will cascade—pushing more countries to reconsider reliance on U.S. leadership.

Presenters or contributors

• Richard Wolff (Professor, guest)
• Glenn (host/interviewer; name not provided in subtitles)