📊 Sales High , Profit High - अब Stock में Strong Breakout

Finance-Focused Thesis (Next ~5 Years)

The speaker argues that Indian “capital market” businesses—such as stock broking, AMCs/mutual funds, and wealth/PMS platforms—should deliver strong returns over the next ~5 years, mainly due to:

• Low current retail participation: only ~5–7% of India actively invests/trades (as claimed).
• Growth in the investor base: more people are expected to open demat accounts and adopt mutual fund SIPs.
• Comparative participation: stock market participation in developed markets (US/UK/China/S. Korea) is stated to be ~34x higher than India.

The video then shifts from the macro/sector view to a technical swing-trade analysis of a specific stock, while also reviewing fundamentals.

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Stock / Company Discussed

• 361 (ET Money) The speaker repeatedly refers to “361 company, basically ET Money” (the exact ticker symbol is unclear from subtitles).

Reported figures (as stated):

• Market cap: ~₹48,000 crore
• AUM (asset under management): ~₹7.77 lakh crore
• Client families: ~8,900
• Offices: 32

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Fundamental Highlights (As Presented)

Business Model

ET Money is described as an app that provides:

• Wealth management for ultra HNI / wealthy families / corporate treasuries
• Asset management for retail customers through:
  • Mutual funds
  • PMS (portfolio management services)
  • Related offerings

Stated target ticket sizes:

• Wealth management via ET Money: ₹10–50 crore investible wealth
• PMS onboarding minimums (as stated):
  • ₹10 lakh / ₹50 lakh (depending on tier)

Revenue Mix / Recurring Income (Claimed)

• ~71% from recurring fees
• ~25% from transaction income
• ~4% from carry income

Financial Growth (Numbers Mentioned)

• Revenue from operations YoY growth: ~24.2%
• Total revenue growth: ~20%

Net profit trend (from 2018 onward to FY2027 / running year):

• The speaker claims net profit did not drop post-COVID and has risen year by year.
• Examples mentioned:
  • ~₹350 cr (2021)
  • ~₹500+ cr
  • ~₹650 cr
  • then ~₹800 cr
  • ~₹1,200 cr
  • FY2027 running year: ~₹1,262 cr

Forward-looking expectation (stated):

• FY2027 net profit expected around ₹1,500–₹1,800 crore or more
• Timeline note: the speaker refers to FY ending April (as stated)

Shareholding / “Smart Money” (As Stated)

• Promoters + FIIs + DIIs: ~84%
• Retail: ~16%
• Of the retail stake: HNI/HAIs mentioned as ~5–6%

Implied conclusion: ~90% held by “good people” who supposedly don’t trade frequently.

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Technical Swing-Trade Setup: “Bullish Pennant Pattern”

Timeframe

• Uses a weekly chart
• Recording/viewing note:
  • “Today is Thursday”
  • Expects Friday candle close to confirm

Indicators / Conditions Mentioned

• Price already:
  • Trading above the 200 EMA (stated)
  • RSI ~60, described as ideal in the 50–70 range (stated)

Trigger logic (as described):

• Wait for the Friday candle to close.
• Then, if the next candle breaks the high of the current setup candle, that’s when the swing trade would be planned.

Expected Move / Upside (Stated)

• If it revisits the prior resistance / all-time high zone, the speaker estimates potential ~10% return.

Pattern Narrative

• Background described:
  • After listing (speaker claims it’s “not been long since it was listed in 2000”—likely a subtitle error), the stock allegedly had:
    • A one-sided rally starting from 2023, roughly ~3x
    • Then ~1.5 years of sideways consolidation
• The setup is linked to breakout behavior associated with concepts attributed to traders:
  • Mark Minervini
  • Nicolas Darvas
• No formal checklist is provided beyond breakout/EMA/RSI confirmation.

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Methodology / Framework (Implied Steps)

1. Sector/Business Thesis (Macro + Industry)

   • Capital market participation should expand in India.
   • Emphasize recurring-fee business models tied to wealth/money management.

2. Fundamental Screen

   • Check revenue and net profit growth.
   • Look at revenue mix for recurring fees.
   • Evaluate scale (AUM/clients) and ownership quality (promoters+FIIs+DIIs vs retail).

3. Technical Confirmation (Weekly Swing)

   • Confirm price above 200 EMA
   • Confirm RSI in the 50–70 zone (notably around ~60)
   • Wait for candle close (Thursday/Friday timing)
   • Plan only after the next candle breaks the high

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Risks / Disclaimers / Cautions

• Explicit disclosure:
  • “Educational purposes only”
  • “No buy or sell recommendations”
• Emphasis on needing confirmation before planning a trade (technical caution).

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Other Mentions (Instruments / Concepts)

• Mutual funds, PMS, private equity
• SIP, demat accounts
• Trading methods mentioned but not recommended:
  • Day trading
  • Options
  • Crypto futures
  • Option selling/buying
  • Hedging

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Presenter / Sources Mentioned

• Presenter: Unspecified in subtitles The speaker speaks in first person and references “SEBI registered R team” and mentions classes/Telegram.

• Referenced trading concept sources (names only):

  • Mark Minervini
  • Nicolas Darvas
• Platform mentioned:
  • SEBI registered R team (Telegram channel claimed as free; link not provided in subtitles)