JJ Simon 2026 mentorship identifying fair price moving

Main ideas / concepts conveyed

• “Fair price” is a zone, not an exact line.
  • The speaker repeatedly emphasizes you can’t be precise; fair price is somewhere within a range (often marked by rectangles on the chart).
• Fair price is driven mainly by news.
  • Traders should check whether price action is being driven by upcoming/just-released events (they mention using Forex Factory or Twitter).
  • Because news changes the valuation/returns of the traded “companies” (implied context), moves may become unfair until price reverts.
• Fair vs. unfair moves are identified by “time to retrace” and consolidation behavior.
  • A move is often treated as unfair if it happens with not enough time to retrace—it moves away quickly without overlapping/consolidating.
  • When the market chops and consolidates, that area tends to become the new fair price.
• Trading approach: enter reversion trades back toward fair price.
  • When price moves away from fair price, the speaker looks for mean reversion (“reversion”) back into the fair zone.
  • Entries are suggested around break of structure (BOS) events (and sometimes a second BOS).
• Session opens are repeatedly treated as key times where fair price is likely to be defined.
  • They discuss fair price zones around:
    • Pre-open / pre-open candle
    • 6 p.m. open
    • Asia open / session open
    • London open
    • 2 p.m. open
  • Moves away from these opens are commonly labeled unfair, and the correction back to the range is treated as fair.
• Gap-fill bias
  • There’s a stated slight bias toward the gap fill, suggesting opens often end up “plus EV” because the gap is often filled.
• VWAP use (anchored VWAP / “VWOP”) is a confirmation tool
  • The speaker uses anchored VWAP as confirmation for where fair price likely is.
  • Anchoring rule: set VWAP before a large move (often “before the big move,” or before a volume spike), then observe how VWAP/price behavior lines up with the fair price zone.
  • They also note they don’t rely on it exclusively—personally they rely more on consolidation.

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Methodology / implied step-by-step instructions

1) Prepare / context check

• Open and monitor a news source while trading
  • Use Forex Factory or Twitter to determine whether a move is “fair” or distorted by news.
• Acknowledge uncertainty
  • On the spot, you may make an initial assumption about fair price; live trading confirms whether your assumption was correct.

2) Mark fair price zones using consolidation

• When you identify an unfair move, mark the prior fair price as:
  • The previous consolidation area before the unfair move.
• Fair price is a zone, not a single candle
  • Mark a rectangle covering the consolidation range.
• Use the most recent consolidation to define the latest fair price
  • If the market chops/consolidates for a long time, assume fair price has updated somewhere within that latest chop zone.
• Don’t always require an exact “pre-open candle”
  • Sometimes fair price is better approximated using consolidation immediately before the pre-open volume spike.
  • You can use one of the following (depending on context/volume behavior):
    • the pre-open candle, or
    • the volume spike rectangle, or
    • the consolidation before the volume spike (if volume/cycle behavior supports it).

3) Identify unfair moves

Label moves as unfair when:

• Price moves away quickly without retracing time (insufficient overlap back through the prior range).
• News-driven moves cause sharp deviations (example given via a “major tweet”).

In practice:

• If price jumps and leaves the consolidation without revisiting it, treat it as unfair and expect reversion.

4) Plan the reversion trade back into fair price

• When price reverts toward fair price, treat it as a fair reversion.
• Entry idea
  • Look for the trade off a Break of Structure (BOS) in the direction of the fair price zone.
  • Sometimes use first BOS or second BOS for added confirmation.
• Stops/TP
  • Stop/TP details aren’t explicitly laid out, but the approach suggests:
    • entries “don’t really matter” as long as you’re moving toward the right general direction
    • take profit when price reaches “close enough” to the fair zone.

5) Use VWAP (optional) for confirmation

• Compute anchored VWAP
  • Anchor it before a large move (or before a volume spike).
• Use VWAP as:
  • a confirmation of fair price direction/area.
• Notes:
  • Anchoring before similar large moves often results in consistent VWAP placement.
  • The speaker personally relies more on consolidation than VWAP.

6) Account for session timing and behavior

• Fair price tends to appear around session opens, including:
  • 6 p.m. open (“usually fair”)
  • 2 p.m. open (often treated as a key “unfair then revert” setup)
  • London open (reversion may be fast; often unfair right at the open)
• General expectation:
  • Moves away from open-defined fair zones are often unfair and tend to revert.
• If the move takes a long time to develop:
  • it becomes more fair, and the speaker suggests possibly not trading if price discovery stays balanced.
• If the move is very fast right after a session open:
  • it may be more reliably unfair, and reversion may be quicker.

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Examples / situations described (what changed fair price)

• Unfair move created a correction expectation
  • An unfair move up/down occurs, then price chops and consolidates; that consolidation becomes the new fair price.
• Major news / “Netanyahu tweet” example
  • The speaker references “the Netanyahu tweet” as a case where:
    • they took shorts and got stopped out,
    • price consolidated afterward,
    • and after consolidation, the fair price changed.
  • After the update, subsequent movement was treated as unfair, with reversion expected toward the revised fair zone.
• CPI/PPI news candle example
  • A large wick/news spike made clean reversion harder at that moment.
  • The takeaway is that you may not always need the exact pre-open candle if there wasn’t enough volume to revisit it—instead mark the volume spike/consolidation zone where reversion becomes more likely.

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Speakers / sources featured

Speaker

• JJ Simon (implied by the video title: “JJ Simon mentorship…”)

External sources mentioned for news checking

• Forex Factory
• Twitter