Know the Top Priorities of Your CEO

Overview

• Don Shyenrife (Gartner) presents findings from Gartner’s CEO survey and CEO Confidence Index to help CIOs and senior leaders translate CEO priorities into executable technology and business moves.
• Central thesis: CEOs face three “wicked messes” — turmoil-driven growth, the AI value conundrum, and workforce remixing — and CIOs must move from technology operators to strategic navigators who map tech investments to these business problems.

Frameworks, playbooks, processes and diagnostics

• Arvin playbook (case model for wicked problems)
  • Partner with government/NGO initiatives.
  • Launch sustainable supplier programs, stabilize prices for suppliers, reduce supplier costs.
  • Use cross-functional diplomacy to build trust and long-term market leadership.
• Lee Iacocca turnaround playbook (example)
  • Secure external funding (loan guarantees).
  • Simultaneous cost restructuring (factory closures, cuts) while investing in transformative product development.
• Verizon cost complexity scorecard
  • Systems-thinking evaluation of cost decisions across three dimensions: dollar magnitude, companywide impact, and impact on interdependent costs.
  • Used to prioritize cuts while preserving strategic capabilities.
• Gartner Tariff Exposure Diagnostic
  • Assess how IT and business projects align with tariff/economic activity and identify geopolitical/tariff vulnerabilities.
  • (Available on gartner.com)
• CIO operational playbook recommendations
  • Create simple visual maps linking technology investments to CEO “wicked messes.”
  • Use scorecards to weigh cost vs. complexity.
  • Integrate geopolitical intelligence into procurement and architecture reviews.

Key metrics, KPIs, targets and timelines

• CEO Confidence Index: 49.6 (midpoint — reflects CEO hesitancy).
• CEO turnover (2024): 202 CEOs left roles (planned or unplanned).
• Average CEO tenure: 4.5 years.
• AI as top disruptor: ~80% of CEOs view AI as the primary industry disruptor.
• AI project failure: Gartner estimate — ~59% of AI initiatives never reach production.

Supply chain / geopolitics

• 58% of CEOs believe US policies will negatively affect their supply chains.
• 51% are redesigning supply chains to handle disruptions.

Market expansion / rebalancing

• 28% plan to expand/diversify markets to manage risk.
• 37% are seeking sales in new regions/countries.
• 76% want to expand into new markets (rebalance footprints within ~3 years).
• 40% want to reduce footprint or exit markets.

Pricing & costs

• 48% adjusting pricing strategies.
• 45% planning price increases in the coming year.
• 77% pursuing cost-efficiency measures.

IT spending and AI economics

• Without AI, Gartner projects IT spending growth would be 2–3 percentage points lower in 2025 vs 2024.
• AI revenue projection: CEOs expect ~19% of revenue by 2030 could come from AI agents acting as machine customers.

Infrastructure & energy

• Data centers consume ~5% of US generated energy (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory).
• Big tech investment in AI infrastructure: ~$155 billion spent so far this year.

Concrete examples and case studies

• Arvin Limited (textiles, India)
  • Partnered with Better Cotton Initiative; launched sustainable cotton farming programs.
  • Stabilized farmer pricing, reduced costs; impacted ~20,000 farmers in Gujarat (reported reductions in suicides and environmental improvement).
• Lee Iacocca / Chrysler
  • Used federal loan guarantees plus cost cuts and product investment to rescue the business.
• Novartis
  • Invested in gene and cell therapies (high R&D/regulatory risk) to get ahead during turmoil.
• Samsung
  • Strategic bet on OLED/AMOLED despite competing tech leadership — example of investing for future dominance.
• Verizon
  • Implemented a cost complexity scorecard to prioritize cuts strategically.
• Amazon / Disney
  • Public examples of significant cost-cutting to fund new strategic investments.
• Nation-level procurement impacts
  • Spain excluding Huawei from 5G core under external pressure — demonstrates geopolitics reshaping vendor choice and supply risk.

Actionable recommendations for CIOs and senior tech leaders

• Validate CEO priorities frequently
  • Turn ambiguity into action by mapping tech investments to the CEO’s top wicked messes.
• Step into decision vacuums
  • Propose low-risk, high-impact projects to build trust and accelerate funding/approvals.
• Use simple visual maps and scorecards
  • Map technology projects to business risks (tariffs, supply-chain exposure, market expansion) and to CEO objectives (growth, resilience).
  • Adopt cost complexity/impact scoring rather than across-the-board percentage cuts to avoid long-term damage.
• Reassess geographic expansion/exit decisions
  • Perform due diligence and update security, legal, and procurement frameworks when entering/exiting countries.
  • Plan for a ~3-year timeline to rebalance footprints; expect both expansion and retrenchment.
• Integrate geopolitical intelligence into procurement and architecture
  • Treat supplier choice as a geopolitical decision (not merely technical).
  • Model vendor lock-in risks, sovereignty constraints, and create alternative sourcing plans.
• Prepare for AI infrastructure & energy needs
  • Evaluate architectural resilience: energy provisioning, infrastructure scalability, and vendor-lock risks.
  • Factor in power and data-center capacity as strategic constraints and negotiation points with providers.
• Shift focus beyond technology
  • Address culture, talent, operating model, ethics and security in AI programs to reduce the ~59% failure-to-production rate.
  • Treat AI projects as enterprise transformations requiring governance, skills development, and commercial model planning (including new commercial infrastructures).
• Pricing and cost strategy
  • Test price changes carefully and “earn the right” to raise prices via differentiated value.
  • Use agile cost management and scenario planning to protect strategic investments.
• Consider future business models
  • Evaluate opportunities and risks from autonomous business and machine-customer revenue streams; plan for programmable payments/digital wallet integration.

High-level investing / market notes (business execution lens)

• Geopolitics is reshaping competitive advantage; governments’ AI/infrastructure policies will shape procurement and strategic partnerships.
• Big tech’s huge infrastructure spend is accelerating vendor consolidation and potential lock-in — plan for that in vendor strategy and capital allocation decisions.

Presenters and sources

• Presenter: Don Shyenrife — Distinguished Analyst, Gartner.
• Primary sources: Gartner CEO survey, CEO Confidence Index, and related Gartner research.
• Referenced organizations and examples: Arvin Limited; Lee Iacocca / Chrysler; Novartis; Samsung; Verizon; Amazon; Disney; Coca‑Cola; Lowe’s; Crocs; Glenn Hutchins / Silver Lake (comment referenced); Spain/Huawei (government example); Microsoft, Google investments; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory energy data.