'It's Over': Strategist Reveals Which Assets Are About To Crash | Mike McGlone

Finance-focused summary (markets/investing view)

Macro regime: “post-inflation deflation”

• Framing: Commodity prices don’t “stay up” due to supply elasticity—when prices rise too much, supply ramps and/or demand weakens, creating deflationary price dynamics.
• Key parallel cited: 2008
  • CPI peaks
  • WTI ~147
  • Followed by a collapse into deflation.

Primary driver: the stock market (risk asset “elasticity”)

• Core thesis: Metals and industrial commodities (e.g., copper, gold) generally require a bullish stock market.
• Caution/recommendation: If the S&P 500 drops, expect commodities to drop more.
  • He cites a “value at risk”-style relationship:
    • -10% stock → -20% copper/industrial metals

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Key market calls / price targets / levels mentioned

Crude oil (WTI / futures)

• Current/near references
  • Mentions ~$91/bbl earlier
  • Later says December crude oil future ~ $77
  • Also references fronts ~ $93
• Downside expectation
  • Expects crude to fall: $77 → ~$50 by “midterms”
  • General pattern: oil “does not stay up,” and when it nears ~120, it often falls back toward ~40.

Natural gas

• Elasticity example
  • Natural gas peaked near ~$7/MMBtu (front contract; ~100% YoY run-up mentioned)
• Reversal
  • As of April 24: ~$2.5/MMBtu
  • Compared to the 2022–23 style reversal pattern.

Gold / silver / precious metals risk

• Gold stance
  • Described as stretched/overdone
  • Positioned as a highly volatile risk asset
• Gold volatility
  • Says gold volatility hit the highest since 2009
  • Also references a relative measure vs the S&P 500 (highest since 2006)
• Equities linkage
  • Claims gold and silver correlations to equities rise when volatility is high
• Range framework
  • Gold could trade between $3,000 and $6,000 “for a decade”
  • With risks of longer stagnation and whipsaws
• Silver
  • Called a potential short earlier when above $100
  • Later notes silver is down ~25% from that level

Bitcoin / crypto

• Thesis: “Glory days are over”
  • Crypto framed as a risk asset with high volatility
  • Expected to underperform in bear/base regimes
• Performance comparisons
  • Bitcoin: ~ -11% YTD (1-year: -17%)
  • S&P 500: ~ +32% (also mentioned as up ~4% in another comparison window)
• Price levels / trading ranges
  • Resistance: ~$94,000
  • Support: ~$64,000
  • Resistance/short framing shifted:
    • Initially: ~$94k
    • Later moved to: ~$75k
    • Current reference: ~$77k
• Downside progression
  • ~$50,000 target for later this year
  • Longer “low price cure” could extend down to ~$10,000, framed via a “random walk”/multi-year analogy (including a 50% drops narrative and the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index)

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Copper / industrial metals

• Copper dependency: framed as economy/stock-market dependent
• Short setup
  • Copper is on a “potentially prudent short list” around “above six” (explicit level cited: ~6)
• Rationale
  • Needs demand pull from China
  • Plus a rising US stock market prerequisite
• Relative-value angle
  • Compares copper price / S&P 500 (mentions “slapped three zeros off the S&P 500”)
  • Notes copper has lagged since 2023

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Volatility / hedge framing

• Says VIX up to ~30 is “great,” but:
  • hedging can be difficult to manage
  • suggests sometimes moving to Treasuries and “picking your spot”

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Explicit recommendations / portfolio posture (as stated)

• Overweight treasuries (for the year)
  • Overweight treasuries
  • Underweight most risk assets
• Responsive trading
  • Emphasizes responsive selling and responsive buying rather than blanket positions
• Potential short candidates
  • Copper (around/above ~6)
  • Silver (initially above ~$100)
• Crypto stance
  • Crypto framed as still in a purge/bear phase
  • Implies caution/underweight, with large downside risk via key levels

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Method / framework elements mentioned (logic)

• “Elasticity” model for commodities
  • When prices rise, supply increases and/or demand weakens → prices mean-revert/downshift
  • Example chain: natural gas peaks near ~$7 → falls to ~$2.5
  • Crude rebounds, then expected to fall
• Equity-to-commodity correlation approach
  • If the S&P 500 falls, commodities/industrial metals may fall more (about 2x in his VaR framing)
  • Metals require bullish stocks
• Relative-value / regime signals
  • Uses volatility comparisons (notably gold vs equity volatility)
  • Uses gold/crypto behavior as leading indicators (as claimed): crypto decline leading; gold breakout leading

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Key numbers & rates/timelines (risk/macro)

• Deflation timeline: “by midterms” commodities downshift
  • Oil target: ~$50
• Bond yield references
  • China 1.76% (as referenced on a “tenure note yield”; interpreted as deflationary)
  • “Long bond” could get near ~5% (key threshold)
  • Speed round: 10-year Treasury ~4.3%, with expectation toward ~3.9% vs 4%/5%
• Commodities pricing examples
  • Mentions an average cost ~ $55/bbl
  • Contrasts cost with spot/curve levels cited ($93 then $77)
• VIX
  • VIX up to ~30

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Disclosures / sponsorship / disclaimers

• Sponsor disclosure: Priority Gold
  • Sponsored segment about adding physical gold/silver to retirement
  • Mentions a “free portfolio review” and “up to $10,000 in free silver” on qualifying purchases
• Note: No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.

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Tickers / assets / instruments mentioned

• Equity indices
  • S&P 500 (implied: SPX)
  • NASDAQ
• Commodities / benchmarks
  • WTI crude oil (and December crude oil future)
  • Brent
  • Natural gas (MMBtu)
  • Gold, silver
  • Copper
  • Corn, soybeans, wheat
  • Gasoline, diesel, gas oil, refined products
• Crypto
  • Bitcoin
  • Dogecoin, Shiba Inu
  • Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index
• Fixed income
  • 10-year Treasury
  • Fed funds rate
  • Long bond
  • “Treasury and bond futures”
• ETFs
  • Mentioned indirectly (e.g., “advent of ETFs” for Bitcoin), but no specific ticker provided

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Presenters / sources mentioned (at end)

• Mike McLeone — Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
• David — host (host name not clearly provided in the subtitles)
• Jerome Powell — referenced via comments about debt/primary balance
• Priority Gold — sponsor
• Bloomberg — cited for hedge fund performance and a “Bloomberg report” segment