Андрей Безруков: каким будет новый мир?

Summary

Andrey Bezrukov argues that the world is undergoing not merely a shift from US-led unipolarity to multipolarity, but a broader change of historical era. He compares the present to the early 20th century, when new technologies transformed economies and societies while established powers resisted losing influence. He identifies artificial intelligence and advances in biology and genetics as technologies that could reshape how people work, live, and understand themselves.

In his view, the old international order is weakening, but no replacement has yet taken shape. The growth of China, India, Southeast Asia, and other regions is shifting economic and political weight toward Eurasia. A multipolar system will not emerge peacefully or quickly: rising powers will compete over influence and rules, while established powers try to preserve their positions. Bezrukov estimates it may take 15–20 years for a new balance to become clearer. He distinguishes this prolonged confrontation from continuous hot war, noting that it will also involve economic, political, and information competition.

Russia’s position and priorities

Bezrukov says Russia can remain an independent power, but argues that its independence depends on domestic development rather than on balancing between the United States and China. He describes Russia and China as complementary partners, while warning that excessive dependence on China is a risk Russia must address through faster domestic growth. In his view, the key distinction between partnership and becoming a junior partner is Russia’s ability to sustain an effective, innovative economy.

He argues that Russia should not simply copy another country’s model. Instead, it should learn selectively from others—particularly from China’s investment in strategic industries—while developing its own approach. He sees Russia’s geography, diplomatic capacity, and history of integrating diverse peoples as potential strengths, and describes the country as a possible mediator across Eurasian relationships.

Bezrukov identifies several constraints on Russia’s development: demographic decline, limited access to investment, technological gaps, and inadequate long-term planning. He proposes a more active economic policy, including what he calls a “two-circuit” financial system: directing some funds specifically toward investment and infrastructure, rather than allowing all money to circulate primarily through consumption. He also calls for affordable financing, strategic planning, and a long-term state vision to guide business investment.

He argues that technological sovereignty does not mean producing everything domestically. Rather, a country should control essential capabilities and build reliable partnerships for what it cannot efficiently make itself. He sees larger economic and technological partnerships as important for Russia, particularly because a relatively small domestic market can make it difficult to fund major industries and compete with larger economies.

For Russia’s future, Bezrukov emphasizes developing Siberia and the Far East and connecting them more effectively to Asian markets. He suggests that energy infrastructure, logistics, data centres, and unmanned technologies could support development across remote regions and improve living standards beyond the largest cities.

Historical lessons, national identity, and education

Reflecting on the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Bezrukov attributes it to a combination of leadership failures and a rigid economic and political system that did not adapt. He argues that the Soviet economic model had significant strengths but became ossified, with insufficient reform and too little renewal in leadership. He also criticizes Soviet leaders for allowing personal and political interests to take precedence over the country’s future.

He sees national identity and service to the country as important sources of purpose. In his view, patriotic attachment is formed early through family, education, and social experience. He contrasts this with what he describes as the loss of positive identification with Russia among some people who grew up during the 1990s.

Comparing Russian and American education, he characterizes the Russian system as providing broad, deep foundational knowledge, while the American system places greater emphasis on independence, project work, written communication, and self-directed exploration. He regards Russia’s strong academic grounding as an asset, but argues that education should do more to encourage initiative and independent expression. He supports retaining a common national examination as a broadly consistent measure of achievement, while acknowledging that testing alone cannot assess a student’s full capacity for thought.

Intelligence, forecasting, and artificial intelligence

Bezrukov describes intelligence, analysis, and research as connected by their focus on anticipating the future. His past intelligence work, he says, taught him to look beyond public events to the people and interests shaping decisions. He also cautions that forecasts are inherently uncertain: he recalls expecting globalization to continue in the late 1990s, before the events of September 11, 2001, changed the direction of international affairs.

He regards artificial intelligence as useful for gathering and organizing existing information, but limited in work that depends on information not yet recorded—especially people’s intentions before decisions are made. In his view, intelligence still depends on human relationships, trust, verification, and the ability to distinguish reliable information from misinformation. He also criticizes students who submit AI-generated work without understanding it, arguing that education should assess what students have learned, not merely what they produce.

On digital communication and information restrictions, he argues against relying mainly on blocking or disconnecting platforms. Instead, he calls for a more informed, selective information policy based on understanding how different groups communicate and receive information.

The interview closes with Bezrukov urging young people to keep learning, seek out knowledgeable people, and take responsibility for their country’s future. He expresses optimism about Russia’s potential, while stressing that realizing it will require sustained effort and cooperation.

Presenters and contributors: Anna Kapshina (presenter); Andrey Bezrukov (guest).