NEW MISTAKES!? | 16 ADP's Skyrocketing and RUINING Fantasy Value

Overview

The video is a fantasy basketball ADP roundup arguing that recent ADP jumps are creating bad value—specifically, that multiple players are being drafted too high relative to their realistic fantasy ceilings and team usage.

Main framing: “ADP lifts” vs. paying for predictability

Dan Bass Bruce frames the segment as “ADP lifts” from the last two weeks, then evaluates whether each player’s new draft position is justified based on:

• Role and category fit
• Volatility and realism of outcomes

A recurring theme: paying a premium for predictability rather than chasing hype.

Biggest ADP rises and why they may be mistakes

DeMar DeRozan (+7.6 to ~108.9; discussed around ~102 on some boards)

Bruce argues DeRozan is on a “razor’s edge” and likely won’t deliver top-75 upside because he’s dependent on fitting into Jamal Murray/Nikola Jokic usage.

Key concerns:

• Limited ball opportunity and spacing constraints
• The idea Denver will deploy him in ways that cap his fantasy ceiling

Zach LaVine (+5.8 to ~101.7)

Bruce is worried LaVine’s production profile is less reliable than his ADP implies.

Key concerns:

• Historical turnovers
• Defense/rebounding limitations
• His value often hinges on scoring efficiency rather than elite all-around contributions
• “On a team that is not going to be good” (role/team-quality fit questioned)

Cedric (“Ceballos,” likely a defensive-forward archetype) (+4.6 to ~87.3)

Bruce’s pitch: people are rising him because they expect more predictable stat lines, especially defensive production (rebounds/blocks/steals).

But he argues:

• Predictability costs more, and
• He doesn’t want to pay current ADP unless defensive stats behave normally, otherwise the floor could be much worse (potentially near the ~100 range)

Ausar Thompson (+4.5 to ~85.2)

Bruce likes this rise more than most, citing very positive Detroit news about increased minutes and a path back toward top-60 weekly defensive impact.

He frames him as potentially elite defensively, suggesting his ADP is still attractive.

Andrew Wiggins (+4.5 to ~99.1)

Bruce unexpectedly supports the ADP movement.

His belief:

• Wiggins retains value without extreme usage (described as under ~20% last year)
• Defensive contributions plus shooting/efficiency could keep him around the top-80 range

Domantas Sabonis (moved up to ~26.6 overall)

Bruce is mildly positive, but calls out category risk.

Takeaways:

• He thinks Sabonis’ ceiling is constrained by the Kings’ structure
• The segment suggests a usage dominance dynamic elsewhere that limits Sabonis’ category ceiling (the commentary is tangled, but the takeaway is clear: Sabonis’ ceiling is capped)
• Sabonis may be fine in certain categories, but not reliably elite across the full slate

Additional ADP rise commentary (value vs. risk)

Jarrett Allen (+3.6 to ~69.1)

Mixed view:

• Likes the predictability overall
• Flags a key swing factor: free throw performance, which could move his outcomes within a mid-range window

Lauri Markkanen (+3.3 to ~37.5)

Generally positive:

• ADP continues climbing
• Still expects him to land in the 2nd-round range without collapsing significantly

Devin Booker (+3.1 to ~25.7) — “going the wrong direction” critique

Bruce argues Booker’s ADP is rising despite efficiency risk and a shrinking gap between:

• “best-case value” and
• “likely fantasy disappointment”

He frames Booker as a potential season-long failure unless FG% rebounds to historical norms.

LeBron James (+3.0 to ~36.9)

Bruce questions the market:

• Says the value is too early for how he expects LeBron to be drafted (more like a later-round pick)
• Concern: he may not score enough for his ADP, and his assists/overall contributions may not be category-winning at the expected level

Jaylen Williams (+2.8 to ~40.8)

“Okay but worry about ADP drift”:

• Not a big fan of the rise
• Injury history makes the ADP tolerable only if he returns healthy
• Suggests there are better fourth-round alternatives if ADP keeps rising

Late-round rise/risk notes

Jalen Green (+2.7 to ~102.1)

Bruce says Green is only a draft option in punt field-goal / punt strategy formats.

• Otherwise, too inconsistent for regular category-league ADP

Josh Giddey (+2.6 to ~23.1)

Bruce thinks it’s too early due to percentage volatility (field goals and free throws) and turnovers.

He views Giddey as strong in certain counting stats but lacking the predictability premium he demands.

Jalen Suggs (+2.6 to ~108.5)

Bruce supports Suggs more than most:

• Suggests he can still deliver multi-category value
• Notes ADP risk if he’s on a too-stacked “risk” team

Cameron Boozer (+2.4 to ~56.2)

Bruce doesn’t hate Boozer, but believes the leap is driven by hype/unknowns.

• Prefers taking more proven players in the same neighborhood.

“Flop” callout

Bam Adebayo — ADP rising to ~28.7

Bruce labels him too expensive, saying his ADP follows “draft board consensus” rather than realistic category output.

He argues Bam’s category ranking (especially in 9-category formats) could land far below his current ADP.

Overall conclusion (“condensed summary”)

Bruce ends with a condensed list of players whose value he believes has dropped or is mispriced, including:

• DeRozan (no longer valuable at current ADP)
• LaVine (nearly no longer valuable)
• Cedric “Ceballos” (lost value)
• Sabonis (usable mainly in an 8-category approach)
• Booker (not worth the rising price)
• LeBron (too early)
• Jalen Green (punt mode only)
• Giddey (a bit too early)
• Bam Adebayo (drafting too high)

Presenters / contributors

• Dan Besbris (host, “Old Man Squad Fantasy Basketball”)
• FanDuel (sponsor/brand mentioned)
• Fantrax (sponsor/brand mentioned)