Video Summary - When Will The Fed Raise Rates?

Summary (finance / macro focus)

The speaker discusses the upcoming FOMC meeting (tomorrow, July 29), arguing the Fed is unlikely to raise rates immediately, with a more likely move in September.
Core thesis: “narrative follows price”—i.e., market signals (especially yields) may drive Fed behavior later.
The speaker highlights the long end of the yield curve as the main tell:
- 30-year yield is near/trying to break above ~5.1%–5.2% (contained/rejected since 2023).
- 10-year yield may move back toward the October 2023 high, implying upward pressure if bond-market conditions tighten.

Inflation has recently risen then fallen, described as moving roughly ~4.2% → ~3.4%–3.5% after a spike to ~4.1%.
Energy is flagged as a potential inflation headwind:
- XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) was referenced around ~$52–$53, but could rise again, keeping inflation risk elevated.
Labor remains strong:
- Initial jobless claims ~187,000 (described as the lowest in decades).
- Unemployment rate ~4.2%, trending downward since Nov 2025.

Fed Watch tool probability cited: about 29.4% for a rate hike tomorrow, implying a surprise hike is less likely.
The Fed is described as “following the 2-year yield”:
- The 2-year yield is characterized as rising above the current Fed funds rate, suggesting policy may not be restrictive enough versus market pricing.
Market pricing:
- The market expects hikes toward ~4.25% by December.
- The speaker expects no hike tomorrow.

Tomorrow (July 29): Fed expected to hold rates constant.
August–September: Bond market “revolt” / long-end yields rise → leads to a stock market correction beginning Aug/Sept.
September (later in the year): Fed expected to raise rates after yields and inflation risks re-assert themselves.
Bitcoin path: Bitcoin may drop toward its cycle low in the back half of midterm years, typically Q4.

Forecast: a 10%–20% S&P 500 correction likely in the back half, drawing analogs to episodes such as 2014, 2018, 2022 (late July–Aug/Sept) style drawdowns, and citing a 2023 bond-led correction around late July (~10%).
“Flight to safety” / relative performance expectations under higher-for-longer and still-restrictive policy:
- Mega-cap tech outperforming micro-caps
- Bitcoin outperforming altcoins
Caution on narrative/panic risk:
- If people panic because “the Fed is raising rates,” they may be misreading it—if hikes happen without breaking the economy, the economy can still be “okay” in the short window.

Use the yield curve + labor/inflation inputs to infer Fed timing
Check market probability (via Fed Watch).
Compare 2-year yield vs. Fed funds rate (Fed “follows the 2-year yield”).
Watch long-end yields (10-year / 30-year) for breakout behavior.
Evaluate whether inflation risk re-emerges via:
- Recent inflation trajectory
- Energy prices (using XLE as a proxy)
- Labor momentum (initial claims, unemployment rate)
Infer consequences for:
- Risk assets (S&P correction)
- Crypto market (Bitcoin bottom timing)

FOMC date: tomorrow July 29
Fed Watch rate-hike probability (tomorrow): ~29.4%
30-year yield resistance level: ~5.1%–5.2% (rejected since 2023)
XLE (Energy ETF): ~$52–$53
Initial jobless claims: ~187,000 (lowest in decades, per speaker)
Unemployment rate: ~4.2%
Market-implied Fed funds by Dec: ~4.25%
Inflation path (as described):
- up to around ~4.1–4.2%
- down to around ~3.4–3.5%

No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer was indicated in the provided subtitles.

Presenter: not explicitly named in the subtitles (only “Hey everyone…” / channel host implied).
Source/tool referenced: “Fed Watch tool” (CME FedWatch implied).