Video summary

WarranTalks Ep 6 Kupas Tuntas Cara Cari Cuan Dari WT KGI Bersama Waran Hunter Indonesia!

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Speakers / Roles

  • Moderator (host): Mr. “Brepi” (name partially unclear in subtitles)
  • Main speaker: Mr. Devandi Nasrul / Devani Nasrul — Founder, Waran Hunter Indonesia (WHI)

Disclaimers / Cautions Mentioned

  • The content is education/information only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares/warrants.
  • All investments involve risk, including loss of capital.
  • Warrants can expire with zero value if they end up out of the money.
  • Repeated emphasis to not confuse in-the-money vs out-of-the-money.

Key Market / Product Context: Corporate Warrants vs Structured Warrants (WT)

Underlying & Issuer

  • Corporate warrants: Issued by a listed company (the parent stock issuer).
  • Structured warrants (WT): Issued by securities members (structured warrant issuers).

Who Can Issue / Underlying Universe

  • Historically, structured warrants’ underlying were restricted to stocks in IDX “Index 30”, then expanded to “Index 80” members.
  • Structured warrant issuers mentioned:
    • KGI Securities
    • RB Securities
    • Maybank Securities
    • CGSI Securities
    • Korea Investment Securities
  • Index 80 constituents were described as having high liquidity, large market cap, and good fundamentals.

Time to Maturity

  • Corporate warrants: typically 1–5 years
  • Structured warrants (WT): typically 2 months to 24 months (~2 months–2 years)

Settlement / Redemption

  • Corporate warrants: can be converted into parent shares (stock conversion possible).
  • Structured warrants: cash settlement only if in-the-money; if out-of-the-money, investors may lose capital.

Underlying Price Formation

  • Corporate warrants: pricing depends more directly on market forces.
  • Structured warrants: feature a liquidity provider (LP) market-making mechanism with continuous bid/ask management (quasi bids/offers).

Mentioned Underlyings / Tickers / Instruments (Examples)

Most examples reference Indonesian equities; some ticker/code references appear partially unclear in subtitles.

Examples used throughout:

  • Telkom
  • ITMG (May 13 close around IDR 3,000; WT example “ITMG HDCZ6A” around 69)
  • BBRI (multiple WT code examples; also used for leverage/theta-type examples)
  • MDKA (call/put code reading examples)
  • DSNG, TAPG (ARB/direct exposure examples; anomalies noted)
  • BCA (volatility examples; some references may include BBCA codes)
  • BRPT
  • PTBA (dividend/GMS timing examples)
  • ENRG
  • BBIN (text unclear; treated as “BIN/Bevin” in some examples)
  • “Bumi / UNCB?” (examples include Bumi; multiple code strings appear with identifiers like HD/CJ6A)
  • SS / Pewon / PWON / Telkom / Index 80 sideways examples (some ticker text partially unclear)

Structured Warrant Code Formats (As Mentioned)

Example format

  • ABCD XX CZ 6A

Where:

  • ABCD = underlying stock code
  • XX = publisher/issuer code
  • CZ = WT type and due month
  • 6A / 7A etc. = maturity year + unique unit code
  • C = Call, P = Put

Explicit code examples mentioned

  • BBRI HD CQ 7A (KGI issuer example; call-type; maturity Aug 2027; unit code A)
  • MDKA HD CP 6 H (call-type; maturity Oct 2026; unit code A)
  • ITMG HDCZ6A
  • Bumi HDCQ6A (matrix/theta decay example)
  • BBCA HDCQ7A (inventory/sold-out type example)
  • BRPT HDRCM6A
  • PTBA HDCM6A (appears in dividend analysis context; text repeats)
  • ENRG ADC K6A (IPO and in-the-money settlement example)
  • Additional shorthand noted via subtitles:
    • HD = KGI
    • ZP = Maybank
    • DR = RHB (Exact mapping shown/mentioned as issuer shorthand)

Indexes Mentioned

  • IDX “Index 80” (core theme)
  • IDX “Index 30” (prior underlying universe)

Key Numbers / Metrics (Examples)

Leverage / Gearing Effect (WT vs Parent)

  • If the parent rises ~2%, WT could rise ~6% / 10% / tens of % (example ranges described).
  • If the parent rises ~15%, WT could rise ~30% or up to ~80%+ (as described).
  • Symmetry noted: if parent drops ~5%, WT could fall tens of %.

Cost / Lot Example (ITMG)

  • ITMG closed ~IDR 3,000 (≈ IDR 2.3 million per lot).
  • WT ITMG HDCZ6A price ~69 (≈ IDR 6,900 per lot).
  • Narrative point: smaller premium can provide large exposure.

Auto Cash-Settlement Timing (In-the-money)

  • Cash settlement distributed to RDN on the third trading day after the expiry/date of Kea.
  • Example explanation: if there is surplus intrinsic value, QC/QP distributes automatically—no manual action required.

Theta / Time Decay Example (Bumi HDCQ6A style)

  • Parent (Bumi) stays around ~240 over time.
  • WT bid/quote decays due to theta:
    • Apr 15, 2026: around 22
    • May 18 (~1 month later): around 16
  • Explanation: theta often accelerates near expiry, pushing WT lower even if parent is unchanged.

Dividend / Swing-Trading Numbers (PTBA)

  • PTBA GMS timing: June 11, 2026 (annual GMS discussed).
  • Rumor/claim: potential “jumbo dividend”.
  • Dividend-related examples mentioned:
    • 2024 dividend paid in 2025: about 330
    • 2023 area: price around Rp 397
    • 2022 “jumbo year”: PTBA could rise to 3,500–4,000, with dividends in the “1,000,000s” (units unclear)
  • Execution math described:
    • Estimate the probability of in-the-money using parent predicted price near expiry window.
    • Use call intrinsic estimate:
      • (Settlement price - Exercise price) / Ratio (call)

In-the-money Calculation Examples (Generic)

  • PTBA HDCM6A example
    • Exercise price: 2417
    • Ratio: shown as 8/8 (subtitles unclear, but ratio division emphasized)
    • Intrinsic/settlement estimate example described:
      • (3,000 - 2,417) / ratio → described as ~Rp 60–72
  • ENRG in-the-money example
    • IPO/offer price mentioned as 46
    • At expiry (when in-the-money), WT replaced with about ~Rp 255
    • Narrative profit described as “buy ~46 → replacement ~255” (direction: roughly 3–4x profit; some numbers inconsistent)

Methodology / Step-by-Step Frameworks Explicitly Shared

A) How to Read a WT Code

Break the code into components:

  • Underlying stock code (e.g., BBRI, MDKA)
  • Publisher/issuer code
  • WT type: C = Call, P = Put
  • Due month code: letters for months (example mappings given: F = Jan, J = Apr, Q = Aug)
  • Maturity year code: 6 = 2026, 7 = 2027, etc.
  • Unique unit code (A/B/C…)

B) How to Find Active WT (List for Selection)

Tools mentioned:

  • webidx.id / IDX-linked structured warrant search
  • warankgi.id (KGI-specific structured warrant search tool)

Workflow:

  1. Search by issuer/publisher (e.g., KGI)
  2. Filter active vs expired (explicit note: expired listings can appear in some lists)

C) WT Selection Workflow (WHI “Risk Mitigation” Process)

Main steps (order varied in narration):

  • Prefer series with an available warrant matrix (only 3 publishers provide matrices; KGI included).
  • Exclude series without a matrix (harder to estimate bids/asks / leverage).
  • Remove WT whose trading end date is close (examples: delete Jun/Jul when choosing later months).
  • Prefer WT with:
    • Greater leverage effect (use matrix sensitivity/leverage columns)
    • Risk managed by price tier:
      • High risk: ~1–49
      • Medium risk: ~50–99
      • Low risk: 100+
  • Avoid WT too close to expiry or with low remaining inventory held by LP/publisher.
  • Use the matrix table as a “compass” to estimate bid/ask when the parent moves.

D) Daily Trading Framework (Intraday)

Target behavior:

  • Choose underlying/WT in a “sideways but wide range” pattern within Index 80:
    • “Not going anywhere” but with wide day-to-day volatility.

Structure:

  • Identify parent recent low (e.g., low of the week range).
  • Identify recent high (average/high of prior days).
  • Use matrix to place orders near expected WT bid levels corresponding to parent low/high.
  • Set profit target and stop loss at the start.
  • Discipline: avoid holding overnight; cut losses quickly due to theta erosion.

E) Swing Trading Framework (Fundamentals + Corporate Actions)

Select an underlying with a known corporate catalyst:

  • Dividends, stock splits, reissues, and other corporate actions.

Use timing around dividends:

  • Buy WT anticipating parent will rise toward/around GMS/dividend dynamics:
    • cumdate → ex-date
  • Plan exit before key windows (example given: sell 1–5 days before dividend cumdate was described).

In-the-money estimation at expiry:

  • Expected settlement price ≈ average parent price over last trading days near expiry window
  • Compare to exercise price and divide by ratio

F) In-the-money / Out-of-the-money Estimation (Calls)

For call warrants:

  • In-the-money condition described via:
    • settlement price vs (exercise price / ratio)

Practical approach:

  • Predict parent settlement price using the average of last 5 trading days near expiry as a proxy.
  • Compute estimate:
    • (Settlement price - Exercise price) / Ratio

G) Theta Check Method (Publisher Calculator / “Theta” Section)

  • Use publisher website:
    • Look up theta for a specific WT code.
    • Theta reflects expected daily time decay.
  • Mention of a warrant calculator for holding horizon:
    • Inputs include current bid/ask, parent price assumption, target calculation date (e.g., “hold until June 8, 2026”)
    • Output: predicted bid/ask levels and rounding guidance

Risk Management / Cautions Highlighted (WT-specific)

1) Expiry risk (capital can be fully lost)

  • If WT is out-of-the-money at expiry, investors may lose full capital.
  • Emphasis: warrants behave differently from shares (shares can retain value longer even when temporarily down).

2) Time decay (theta)

  • WT value declines over time even if the parent doesn’t move.
  • Theta accelerates near expiry.
  • Recommendation: prefer daily trading / short-term tactics; avoid overnight holding (especially around holidays).

3) Underlying trading halt / suspension risk

  • If the parent stock is suspended, WT trading can stop/untradeable for the same duration.

4) Volatility risk

  • Unexpected parent swings can rapidly change WT price.

5) Liquidity provider (LP) dependency risk

  • If LP has issues:
    • bid/ask may vanish temporarily
    • selling becomes difficult even if price “should” move favorably
  • Example anomalies:
    • LP delay at open (09:00–09:01) and removal near close (~15:49)
    • Market-making stops for half an hour to days due to system problems
    • Inventory nearly depleted → deviation from matrix

6) Inventory / “low inventory” manipulation risk

  • If LP/issuer-held WT is almost fully absorbed:
    • quotes can become unreliable vs matrix
    • WT price may deviate sharply (sometimes “soaring irregularly”)
  • Publisher may add issuance, but limited:
    • additional listing capped (speaker: max additional listing 2x; limit determined by TRMET)
    • example mentioned: max 1 million lots for a specific warrant plan

7) Directional / ARB manipulation risk

  • When parent enters directional / ARB conditions:
    • WT can overshoot above the matrix
    • then crash back after ARB/directional ends
  • Examples: DSNG and TAPG
  • Past large anomalies referenced (e.g., Gudang Garam tax direction example mentioned)

8) Avoid off-matrix warrants

  • Strong recommendation: avoid WT whose movement is far from matrix expectations.
  • If abnormal and not following matrix, it may be due to ARB, low inventory, or LP technical issues—avoid trading it.

9) No FOMO / crowd-chasing caution

  • Avoid buying popular WT without understanding why price moved.
  • Abnormal spikes may revert once matrix/conditions normalize.

Specific Platform / Data Sources Recommended

  • IDX (idx.co.id): issuer information disclosure; used to check inventory absorption and quote stability
  • webidx.id
  • warankgi.id (KGI structured warrant tool)
  • Publisher websites for:
    • warrant matrix
    • theta
    • warrant calculator

Presenter / Source List (As Stated in Subtitles)

  • Mr. Devandi Nasrul / Devani Nasrul — Founder, Waran Hunter Indonesia (WHI)
  • Mr. Brepi / Brevi — Moderator (KGI Sekuritas Indonesia webinar host/moderator)
  • KGI Sekuritas Indonesia — Organizer (structured products / equity derivatives division mentioned)

Original video