Video summary

Gold/Silver Miner Buy The Dip List (June 2026)

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance / Macro Thesis (Gold vs. Equities)

Context / Trigger

  • Don Durrett argues a bull-market “correction” has already occurred:
    • Gold fell roughly 27% from a recent level to a bottom and is now about 25% down.
    • Silver fell roughly 47%–50%, trading around $61.

Technical / Momentum Framing

  • He claims gold and silver each fell below the 200-day moving average.
  • He expects more dips, noting that this is common within bull markets.

Core “Battle” Framework (Gold vs. S&P 500)

  • He uses a gold vs. S&P 500 ratio chart:
    • Black line: Gold / S&P 500
  • He references “Northstar bad charts” posted on X about a month earlier.
  • He identifies a historical regime pattern beginning in the 1960s, with key regime changes:
    • 1971–1972: Gold breakout era
      • Gold rises from about $35 to roughly $850
      • Miners sentiment is strong
    • 1981–2002: Decline
      • S&P outperforms gold
      • Miners sentiment fades/dies
    • Re-emergence around 2002–2005:
      • Miners sentiment improves
      • Gold outperforms

“Stage” Theory and Targets

  • He says the market is approaching “Stage 1” (sentiment improvement).
  • Stage signal details (as described):
    • Current stage signal: under 7 on a channel percentage (hard to read)
    • He claims the top is ~77, and they’re below it
  • Targets for the ratio:
    • Wants the ratio to reach about 0.8
    • Eventually aims for ~1.1
  • “Wind at our back”:
    • He cites a point around 0.8 to 0.9
    • Then says miners should “rip” during/after Stage 1

Implied Ratio Math (Approximate)

  • At the “very bottom,” using approximate levels:
    • Gold ~ $4,300
    • S&P ~ 7,250
    • Ratio is described as about 6
  • His projected path (ratio framing tied to “death cross” timing):
    • If gold rises to ~$5,500, he expects S&P to move toward ~5,500, aligning with mid–Stage 1.

Asset Allocation / Investing Approach (Explicit Steps / Framework)

“Buy-the-Dip List” Methodology

A repeatable, non-formal process:

  • Expect continuation of dip cycles within a bull market.
  • Build a watch/buy list of gold/silver miners with high leverage to precious metals.
  • Prefer companies where upside is enhanced because markets aren’t valuing future mines/expansions yet (i.e., future production/cash flow not fully priced).
  • Create a plan to hold 3–7 names for the next dip, accepting that additional drawdowns may occur.

Two-Position / Pairing Thinking

  • He suggests pairing logic:
    • “Whenever I find a pair, I like to own it” (pairing is referenced later in the list).

Key Recommendation / Caution

  • He repeatedly warns: more dips are possible and investors should be ready for the next dip.
  • Many plays are long-dated development/speculative, with timelines extending to 2028–2030.

Macro-to-Commodity Sensitivity (Explicit Numbers)

Silver-Leverage Scenario (Anchored to Gold View)

  • He anchors miners’ leverage mainly to silver outcomes driven by his gold view.
  • Rule-of-thumb: silver is 2%–3% of gold.
  • If gold ~ $7,000:
    • 2% silver ⇒ ~$140
    • 3% silver ⇒ ~$210
  • He expects silver to land around ~$175–$185–$190, i.e. closer to $200 than $140.

Company / Miner “Buy the Dip” List (Entities Mentioned)

Subtitles provide names/companies; tickers are mostly not provided.

Long-Leverage / Development-Heavy (Often 2028–2030 Timelines)

  • Chesapeake
    • Mexico development; greenfield permitting dependency
    • Mentions Discovery and permitting conditions
    • Build could take 2–3 years, looking toward 2030
  • Silver Tiger
    • First mine building; upside tied to second/third property not yet valued; long until production
  • SilverC/O (Mexico)
    • Production path: ~4M oz next year, ~10M oz by 2028
  • Silver Storm (San Diego project)
    • Production now/soon: ~2.5M oz
    • Big upside in the San Diego portion; timeline/launch uncertain
    • Mentions possible cartel risk in Mexico but is “confident” due to mine size
  • Guana(wato) (simple assumptions framework)
    • Needs to maintain/grow to ~4M oz
    • Mentions cost control (incl. ASIC)
    • Requires silver to ~$200
    • Risk: silver ~ ~$65 implies low profitability and dilution risk
  • 1911
    • Low capex; mining starts Q4 this year
    • Ramp target: ~70k–100k oz over a couple years
  • Aftermath
    • “A lot of silver”; manganese implies low-cost silver; needs a PEA
  • Go Gold
    • Requires building two mines
    • Investors don’t get paid for the second mine until it’s built
    • Timeline: about ~4 years out to full production (two years per mine, per subtitles)
    • Upside depends on gold staying ~$7,000; silver “rides along”
  • Norse(mont)
    • Drilling now; awaiting updated PEA
    • Mill needs re-permitting
    • Low capex, large resource; not a slam dunk but “risk/reward favored”
  • Helio(ar) / Anapola mine buildout
    • In production now, but must build additional projects
  • BMC (Yukon; silver)
    • Permitting risk: claims an environmental permit, though others think it may be challenged
    • Emphasizes very high free cash flow
  • Blue Lagoon
    • Small production: ~20k–30k oz
    • Expects max ~80k–100k oz without building a mill soon
  • Santa Cruz
    • Buy-the-dip; adding production
    • Sorakaya project takes a couple years to build; adds free cash flow
  • Endeavor
    • Adds production with “Pitilla”
    • Pitilla build: ~2–3 years out
    • Notes temporary high ASIC due to financing; penalty drops off in about ~1 year
    • Claims potential “20–25 bagger” upside because Pitilla isn’t built yet
  • D(a)enerius (mill build)
    • Building mill in Colombia: 1,000 tons/day
    • If successful: second project Lomero in Spain
    • Position framed as leverage across two buildouts
  • Aveno (producer with leverage; silver $200 scenario)
    • If silver reaches $200, expects production to ~8M oz with costs controlled
    • (A specific cost-control numeric threshold isn’t stated in the subtitles.)
  • Silver Mountain
    • Restart; production expected “this year” per subtitles
    • Described as unusually cheap vs. valuation
  • Boomadine
    • Major build timeline
    • Production not until ~2029–2030 (per subtitles “2930”)
    • Expects construction in ~2028 and market repricing after
  • Honeybadger (Northwest Territories)
    • Silver-zinc project; “fully permitted”
    • Unknowns: capex, timing, ramp; optionality/spec profile
  • Spanish Mountain (development/spec)
    • Capex: ~$900M
    • Aggressive schedule: construction-ready “next year,” potentially early 2028
    • If gold trends higher, expects shares could “fly”
  • Talisker (producer growing production)
    • Targets ~80k–100k oz over next 3 years, aiming for 100k-ish by 2028
    • Overall goal: ~200k oz
    • Risk: possible acquisition / takeover
  • Integra (added this week)
    • Current mine not generating much free cash flow; high cost
    • Building additional mines: Delmar(e) in Idaho and Nevada (3 mines total once operating)
    • “At least two years out” for Delmar(e) construction/permitting
  • Revival
    • Similar to Integra; US-based
    • Needs to build three mines
    • Expects move higher once construction starts on Mker (Utah/Idaho per subtitles)
  • La Huntan
    • Simple open pit construction
    • PEA coming this year
    • Construction build time: ~6 months
    • Might enter construction in 2027 or early 2028
    • Property: ~2.5M oz, could reach ~3M oz
    • Annual run rate: ~80k–90k to 100k oz
  • Jaguar (Brazil)
    • Claims “17 bagger potential”
    • Operates three mills; two at half capacity, wants to fill over ~5 years
    • CEO quality praised
  • New Found Gold
    • Buying Maritime and ramping second mine into production
  • P2 Gold (clone of La Huntan)
    • Similar open-pit project; slightly bigger, same neighborhood
    • Recommended pairing: P2 + La Huntan
  • McFarland
    • Development optionality
    • Mentions valuation around $70M, possibly ~$100M now
    • Project ounces: ~5M leading to ~8M oz
  • Discovery Silver
    • Needs Mexico greenfield permitting
    • Project Cordiero: “massive”
    • Asks for greenfield open pit permitting in Mexico
    • Timing: permitting could come this year, otherwise next year, then construction
    • First-year production targets (silver-equivalent): ~30–32M oz/year for first 3 years
    • Gold target: ~500k–700k oz/year
  • Thor exploration (West Africa, Nigeria)
    • Mentions Sagal as a location; higher-risk/region preference

“Not on the list” Additional Spec Bet

  • Sun Silver (Nevada)
    • Called a “top pick,” but not yet in newsletter favorites (per subtitles)
    • Size: ~540M ounces silver equivalent, ~70 g/ton, silver+gold only (no base metals)
    • Recovery: ~75%
    • If silver = $200, ore value: ~$400/ton (his calculation)
    • Free cash flow: “~a billion dollars” if mining ~15M oz/year
    • Throughput: about ~1.05M oz/month (~1.0M stated) and implied ~15,000 tons/day
    • Still missing: no PEA yet
    • Capex: ~$1.0B to $1.5B
    • Valuation framing: “under 150 million” and share price described as “30 cents,” with math toward ~40-bagger potential
    • Schedule: construction-ready 2028; “2-year build”
    • Wants PFS in 2027 and PEA in 2027

Other Market Commentary / Examples with Prices

  • Contango
    • Dropped to $15
    • Bid at $14.97 (not filled)
    • Paid about ~$16
    • Recently traded around $27
  • Core Mining
    • Mentioned a dip toward ~$15
    • Briefly “13 handle” (he says “got to 15” then popped)

Risks & Cautions (Explicit)

  • Timing risk: Many are multi-year development builds (2–4 years, some 2028–2030), dependent on permits, construction, and ramp.
  • Commodity-price risk: Scenarios assume silver ~$175–$200 and/or gold ~$7,000.
  • Permitting risk: Repeatedly emphasized (e.g., BMC challenge risk; multiple Mexico projects needing greenfield approvals).
  • Dilution risk: Especially where current silver (~$65) doesn’t support profitability; he warns not to dilute shareholders.
  • Project / geo risk: Mexico cartel risk acknowledged for Silver Storm, countered by confidence in mine size.
  • M&A risk: Talisker could be acquired.

Performance Metrics / Valuation Multiples Mentioned

  • Bagger claims:
    • Endeavor: 20–25 bagger
    • Jaguar: 17 bagger potential
    • Sun Silver: 40 bagger potential (optional valuation framing)
  • Gold scenario used for ratio framing: $4,300 → $5,500
    • S&P: ~7,250 → ~5,500
  • Silver targets: $175–$190+
    • Scenario endpoints: $140–$210
  • Mining output targets (oz/year) mentioned:
    • Several companies cite multi-million ounce targets (e.g., 4M, 10M by 2028, 2.5M, 5M, 15M ounces/year for Sun Silver)

Disclaimers

  • No explicit disclaimers were stated in the provided subtitles.

Presenters / Sources

  • Don Durrett — Gold Stock Data
  • Northstar “bad charts” — referenced as the X/Twitter chart source (posted about a month earlier)

Original video