КУРНИКОВ: "В Кремле засуетились. Отрыв будет". Встреча с Дворковичем, МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ В РФ, Дуров, Путин

Overview

Journalist Maxim Kurnikov (Echo project) discusses how Russian society receives and interprets information despite censorship and “blockages.” He argues that many people—inside Russia and abroad—still share a relatively common understanding of events because social media and major platforms continue to function in some form.

Attitudes Toward War and the “Possibility of Not Knowing”

Kurnikov analyzes how attitudes toward the war may be changing, including the idea of “not knowing” it. He suggests that:

• Some individuals can emotionally distance themselves.
• However, in many Russian regions—particularly where sirens, disruptions, and infrastructure problems occur—ignoring the war becomes difficult.

He offers examples from Crimea, describing frequent failures or shortages affecting:

• Water
• Electricity
• Communications
• Gasoline

He further argues that people tend to adapt psychologically over time, which can normalize:

• Outages
• Escalation of disruptions

This calls into question forecasts that assume mobilization won’t happen because the state would supposedly avoid increasing stress. In his view, such predictions may be unreliable.

He also claims that elites may be accumulating fatigue and struggling to sustain a believable “future” narrative, even if loyalty and propaganda persist.

“Break from Reality”: The Widening Gap

A central theme is the growing gap between official reports and reality—a “break from reality.”

Kurnikov suggests that:

• The regime’s messaging increasingly clashes with how people—especially those connected to the front or familiar with its conditions—perceive events.
• Loyal supporters may remain loyal even when they recognize they’re being lied to, which he presents as a paradox likely requiring social-psychological explanation.

He also raises doubts about the informational value of statements by figures such as Dmitry Medvedev, implying that such comments may be used to manage or “test” the information environment rather than to reflect real decisions.

Russia’s Information/Governance System as a “Black Box”

Kurnikov describes Russia’s information and governance system as a “black box” that should process societal inputs but often does so dysfunctionally, for example:

• Signals may not reach the state.
• Responses may be ineffective.
• Implementation may fail.

Still, he argues that communication is not completely shut down. He points to:

• Censored or semi-independent media (e.g., Kommersant, RBC, Sobchak’s platform)
• The state’s monitoring and propaganda production (suggesting it does read and react)

He cites a Telegram-related episode as an example of imperfect feedback—claims of attempted blocking without total shutdown, alongside FSB messaging.

Resource Strain and a “Wait-and-See” Mode

On system functioning under resource pressure, Kurnikov suggests the regime is operating in a wait-and-see mode. He argues it may use administrative and financial mechanisms—including pressure on businesses—to smooth regional budget gaps and maintain essential services.

He supports this with examples reportedly involving officials convening entrepreneurs to secure “donations,” while businesses continue complying due to constraints and existing “rules of the game.”

Historical Analogy: Leadership Change and Succession

Finally, Kurnikov turns to a historical/cultural analogy, comparing potential post-Putin leadership dynamics to Stalin-era succession mechanisms. He argues:

• The regime’s tendency toward crises of succession and ideological/personality control has historical parallels.
• However, direct repetition is unlikely.

He also discusses propaganda and the cult of personality, noting that a Stalin-level cult is “incomparable,” though personality-cult-like elements could strengthen over time.

Memory, Propaganda, and Selective History

He concludes with broader reflections on how societies under pressure selectively remember or rewrite history. He uses examples including:

• Soviet WWII-era narratives
• The phenomenon of “rosy” official education

His argument is that memory management may evolve, but it may not fully erase the resulting “scars.”

Presenters/Contributors

• Maxim Kurnikov — Journalist; director/head of the Echo project
• Vadim — Interviewer/host (referred to as “Vadim” on the call)