بعد إنهاء مهمة المينورسو.. إلى أين يتجه نزاع الصحراء الغربية؟ | نيوز زووم

Summary

The program presents the failure of the UN Security Council to renew MINURSO’s mandate as an unprecedented diplomatic setback that could reshape the Western Sahara dispute. A US-sponsored draft was vetoed by Russia, while Moscow’s alternative draft also failed to win approval. The Council’s deadlock left the mission’s future uncertain, and the program later reports that the UN announced MINURSO’s departure.

The report also stresses that a failed renewal vote and the mission’s actual withdrawal are not necessarily the same thing: withdrawal requires practical arrangements.

Positions of the Parties

• Morocco views the outcome as a shift in how the issue is handled. The Moroccan Royal Court described it as the closing of a 35-year chapter, while Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita said Rabat was moving from managing the issue to changing its operating rules. The program suggests Morocco sees MINURSO as an obstacle to its approach and may seek to advance its autonomy proposal.
• The Polisario Front welcomed Russia’s veto, arguing that the US draft would undermine the UN-led process. It continues to demand self-determination, including the option of independence, and says it will pursue that goal within international law.
• Algeria expressed regret that the mandate was not renewed. The program considers whether Algeria’s close relationship with Russia influenced Moscow, but one commentator says there is no definitive evidence that Algeria directed the veto.
• Russia justified its veto by arguing that the US draft prejudged sovereignty and narrowed the settlement around Morocco’s proposal. The analysis also interprets the move as part of wider Russian–US competition and Moscow’s effort to preserve a role in international diplomacy.

Background to the Conflict

The program reviews the conflict’s history:

• Spain withdrew and Morocco launched the Green March in 1975.
• The Polisario Front demanded independence and declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in 1976.
• The 1991 ceasefire led to the creation of MINURSO to monitor the ceasefire and prepare a referendum.
• The referendum was never held, amid disagreements over voter eligibility and the political outcome.
• Morocco presented an autonomy plan in 2007, while the Polisario maintained its demand for self-determination.
• The ceasefire broke down in 2020, when the Polisario announced a return to armed action.

The program also cites a 2025 Security Council resolution as establishing Morocco’s autonomy proposal as a basis for negotiations while retaining the principle of self-determination.

MINURSO’s Role

MINURSO is described as a UN mission established in 1991, with headquarters in Laayoune and a liaison office in Tindouf. It monitors military activity and incidents, supports de-escalation and mine-clearance work, and operates observation posts along the sand wall. The subtitles cite 2026 figures of about 153 military personnel, including 123 observers.

Commentators say the mission’s presence did not prevent the 2020 breakdown in the ceasefire, but it has provided an international mechanism for monitoring developments and containing tensions.

Possible Paths Ahead

The program outlines three broad possibilities:

1. Renewed or restructured UN-backed negotiations.
2. Continued political deadlock with limited tensions.
3. Wider escalation triggered by an incident or miscalculation.

Its overall assessment is that the UN can still mediate, but a breakthrough depends on agreement among major powers and the willingness of the parties to negotiate. It warns that the end of MINURSO’s role could make tensions harder to monitor, while emphasizing that durable stability would require political guarantees and a settlement attentive to the population’s future.

Presenters and Contributors

• No presenter or interviewee is identified by name in the subtitles.
• Named figures mentioned or quoted: Nasser Bourita and UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
• The Russian representative and the commentators or analysts are not named.