🔴 Ed Steer's URGENT ALERT To Gold & Silver Buyers

Finance / markets takeaways (gold, silver, rates, USD, oil)

• Fed decision (no rate change) is framed as reinforcing yield-curve management, which in turn pressures long-end rates:
  • 10-year yield ~4.66% (noted as “up around … 4.66 on the 10-year”).
  • 30-year yield spiked >5.2%, highest since 2008 (“well north of 5.2%” / “high not seen since 2008”).
• USD weakness / DXY down is attributed partly to Japanese yen intervention:
  • Japan allegedly stepped into FX markets after the yen had been weakening (yen referenced as being near “40-year lows”).
  • The presenter claims the BOJ (Bank of Japan) intervened after the Japanese market closed, effectively “goosing” the yen, contributing to DXY falling.
• Gold & silver are discussed as trading higher on the day, despite the rate narrative.
• Oil: oil is down, while oil-related equities/ETFs are up, suggesting divergence between “paper” oil futures pricing and equity demand.
• Core thesis: “paper markets are doomed” over time (especially currencies and bonds), with gold/silver positioned as the preferred hedge.

Gold & silver microstructure / COT framework (explicit claim)

The guest argues precious metals price action is driven heavily by Commitment of Traders (COT) positioning—especially the commercial “bullion banks” (short-heavy) versus non-commercial traders.

Mechanism (step-by-step as described)

• Monitor the COT report (commercial, non-commercial, and other reportables categories).
• If non-commercial traders refuse to sell longs / refuse to go short, then:
  • bullion banks can’t cover shorts further, limiting additional downside.
  • This can produce a “basing pattern” (sideways movement rather than continued falling).
• Forward path:
  • Sooner or later, banks may “allow” a rally once they’ve covered shorts as much as they can.
  • By end of summer, the expectation is prices rise (“I certainly expect prices to be on the rise … by the end of summer”).
• Monitoring emphasis:
  • Wait for the next Saturday COT update; the guest expects it likely won’t show huge changes due to the idea that banks are “stuffed.”

Key named institutions / “big shorts”

The guest repeatedly points to a concentrated group of large traders as controlling price via short positioning.

“Big eight” (commercial/bullion banks) referenced for gold/silver

• JP Morgan
• CROWE / “Croup” (transcription unclear; described as a major bank, but no clear ticker provided)
• Wells Fargo
• Bank of America
• Standard Chartered (UK)
• HSBC

Additional context:

• Mentions “about 10 or 11 in gold” and “eight in silver” (presented as counts of traders, not tickers).

Source for the short-driven price idea

• Ted Butler is cited as a source for the view that short positioning largely determines silver/gold price moves.

Explicit numbers / levels (precious metals + rates + shipments)

Gold

• Gold referenced as “sitting at $4,100.”
• Gold described as down ~ $400–$500 since April (approximate).
• COMEX/physical flow estimates:
  • ~11 million ounces of gold shipped out of COMEX “so far this year”
  • ~900,000 ounces shipped in
  • July delivery deliveries: ~14–15 thousand contracts ≈ 1.4–1.5 million ounces
  • COMEX July open interest at the start cited as ~740,000 contracts
• Expectation: rising physical demand will eventually show up in price.

Silver

• Silver described as down ~ $14–$15 since mid-April (approximate).
• Mentions a silver-to-silver-stocks valuation ratio that deteriorated:
  • Historically around 2:1
  • Fell to ~1.1:1 (mid-September of the prior year)
  • Even during an end-of-January spike, silver stocks didn’t outperform silver as much as expected.

Interest rates / macro (repeat levels)

• 10-year yield ~4.66%
• 30-year yield >5.2% (highest since 2008)

Instruments / tickers / funds mentioned

Precious metals / miners

• SIL: described as “a mutual fund of silver stock”
• SIJ: described as “juniors” (likely the junior silver miners ETF; mentioned as “SIJ”)
• No other miner tickers specified in subtitles; First Majestic Silver is named as an example company (no ticker provided in the excerpt).

Oil ETFs

• OIH (Oil Services ETF)
• XOP (Energy/Exploration & Production ETF)
• XLE (Energy sector ETF)

Crypto

• Bitcoin (BTC): mentioned as something he would not buy due to a preference for physical holdings (no price/metrics provided).

FX / indices

• DXY (US Dollar Index)

Company financial context (miners)

• Guest claims miners have “blowout” results and are generating free cash flow, while valuations remain low.
• Example:
  • First Majestic Silver: described as reporting “blowout numbers” (timing: “came up with their numbers this morning”).
• Cost references (range, not fully quantified per company):
  • All-in sustaining costs ~ $1,500–$2,000 “for some of these guys”
• Claim: dividends are “huge,” but markets still “ignore” miners.
• Attribution/theme: the precious metals complex (including miners) is portrayed as being managed/relative performance-managed by the same powers controlling bullion prices.

Explicit recommendations / cautions

• No formal “buy/sell” instruction appears as direct financial advice, but directional expectations are implied:
  • Physical gold/silver expected to rise, especially by end of summer.
  • “Bitcoin is not the place to be right now” is framed as preference-based (not a quantitative metric-backed recommendation).
• Caution/contingency:
  • In the event of a huge market crash, gold could see further correction, framed as bullion banks covering shorts during panic.

Disclosures / disclaimers: the subtitles do not include an explicit “not financial advice” statement.

Performance expectations / sentiment cues

• Gold characterized as basing/sideways for several weeks after a correction since end of January.
• Silver-miner relative performance is treated as a “tell”:
  • SIJ up ~4.38% while silver up ~2.7–2.75%, interpreted as improving relative performance (“more than 1.2”).

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Danny (host): “You’re watching Capital Kosa. My name is Danny.”
• Ed Steer (guest): “Ed Steer, Ster Ed Steer Gold and Silver”
• Ted Butler: referenced as a prior source for the “shorts determine prices” idea