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Антон Силуанов — о «роуд-шоу» ЮГК, курсе рубля, бюджетном правиле, криптовалютах и IPO госкомпаний

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Overview

Anton Siluanov (Russia’s Minister of Finance) discussed several issues at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (RBC Radio studio), focusing on:

  • The budget rule and exchange-rate policy
  • Capital markets and privatization plans
  • Financial regulation, including crypto

Budget rule, oil-price “cutoffs,” and ruble dynamics

Ruble weakening vs. FX operations under the budget rule

  • Siluanov said the ruble’s weakening in June is happening while the Ministry of Finance continues gold and FX operations under the budget rule.
  • He addressed a common market view: foreign-currency inflows from exporters can be “released” only via capital outflow (e.g., attracting foreign investment into Russia).
  • Siluanov agreed that capital outflow dynamics have mattered historically, but argued the budget rule itself also affects currency demand:
    • If oil prices exceed the base price, the state buys foreign currency, which increases FX demand.

FX purchase volumes

  • He cited that the Ministry of Finance’s FX purchases increased:
    • From about $110bn in May
    • To roughly twice as much in June
  • He indicated this approach will continue.

Medium-term plan: lowering base oil-price levels

Returning toward prior “base price” settings

  • For the next three-year budget cycle, Siluanov said the government aims to return to earlier base price levels, instead of relying on higher cutoffs set during periods when additional resources were needed.
  • He explained that cutoffs were adjusted, including:
    • Around $60/bbl previously
    • Now around $50–$59/bbl depending on the year/threshold

Goals and timing

  • The goal is to:
    • Reduce dependence on external conditions
    • Improve the predictability of the ruble and currency market
  • Timing:
    • Siluanov said he does not see changes needed “this year” because oil prices are currently high
    • However, revisions are prepared for later periods (starting around 2027)

Extending the export-currency sale requirement

Proposed extension

  • The Kremlin’s effort to extend the decree requiring exporters to sell part of their FX earnings (which expired in April) was discussed.
  • Siluanov said it would extend the requirement until April 2029.

Effect on the exchange rate

  • He argued the measure has not strongly influenced the exchange rate, because exporters already sell FX to cover ruble costs.
  • Instead, he suggested the decree is mainly about retaining a policy tool, not fundamentally reshaping currency formation.

“Rode-show” and IPO/sales preparation: Southern Gas Corridor (UGC)

Auction process and participation

  • The Rosimushchestvo auction process for selling the Southern Gas Corridor (UGC) was discussed, including the upcoming results (June 10).
  • Siluanov suggested weak earlier participation reflects:
    • Auction conditions/structure
    • Disclosure issues rather than weak prospects for the asset itself.

Road-show style disclosure

  • He emphasized an approach similar to an investment banking “road show”:
    • More information disclosure
    • Additional sessions to explain the asset, debts, responsibilities, and prospects
  • This is intended to improve the likelihood of successful bidding.

Response to criticism about auction pricing

  • Siluanov responded to a State Duma Budget Committee claim (by Andrei Makarov) that a downward-price auction harms business confidence.
  • He argued that valuation processes and auction mechanics do not inherently create such confidence problems.

Macroeconomic risk: global recession and energy transition

External shocks and recession risks

  • Siluanov referenced Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina’s warning about possible world inflationary shocks and recession risks tied to:
    • Middle East instability
    • Sanctions pressure

Russia-specific impacts

  • Slower global growth could reduce:
    • Russia’s export opportunities
    • Demand for Russian traded goods

Long-term energy transition risk

  • If energy-price levels remain high and instability continues, he noted the risk of a long-term shift toward “greener” energy, which could reduce future demand for oil/energy resources.

Mitigation: deeper processing

  • As a response, he highlighted improving the processing of oil and gas into secondary/tertiary products.

Crypto regulation and capital flows

“White zone” legal framework

  • Siluanov said the new crypto regulation law provides a legal basis for:
    • Buying, selling, and circulating crypto assets
    • Settlements using digital financial assets Moving from a “grey zone” into a “white zone.”

Expected market/capital effects

  • He does not expect a major direct influx of capital via crypto.
  • Instead, he expects improved legal support for international settlements, and possibly only a limited effect on the ruble FX market.
  • The stance was that legalization improves market functioning more than it attracts new speculative inflows.

Yuan bonds and foreign-currency borrowing tools

  • Siluanov said the Ministry has already executed 10bn yuan-equivalent placements over 10 years and found demand.
  • He described yuan bond issuance as a niche borrowing/benchmarking instrument, not a major funding source.
  • He noted planned borrowing totals around 5.5 trillion rubles for the year, and said changes should be insignificant, though exceeding that amount in the second half is not ruled out.

Redirecting subsidized lending toward equity/capital markets

Criticism of subsidized-interest-rate support

Siluanov criticized subsidized lending as inefficient and destabilizing:

  • The Central Bank dislikes it because it:
    • Boosts lending
    • Distorts the balance between subsidized and market-rate lending
    • Forces higher key rates
  • The Ministry dislikes it because many budget expenses are tied to interest-rate risk

Proposed conditional support

  • He supported financial help for investors entering markets conditional on companies offering shares / using capital markets.
  • He argued this would:
    • Develop the financial market
    • Improve capital discipline

Implementation challenge

  • He acknowledged that implementation is difficult because:

    • Recipients
    • Financial institutions are accustomed to subsidized rates.

  • He suggested the new approach could become operational from next year.

State companies going public (IPO/SPO)

Conditions for IPOs

  • On whether conditions are favorable for IPOs, Siluanov argued:
    • Business skepticism has existed for years
    • It often improves only with hindsight

Factors that could support issuance

  • He said declining interest rates and rising share prices should encourage investors.
  • He also said the stock market will receive capital from large deposits.

Outlook

  • He expressed expectations that IPOs/SPOs by state-owned companies could occur this year, with:
    • SPOs likely
    • Hopes for further decisions by state companies

Presenters / contributors

  • Anton Siluanov — Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation
  • Sergei Shvetsov — head of the Moscow Exchange National Investment Council (comment cited)
  • Elvira Nabiullina — Governor of the Bank of Russia (comment referenced)
  • Andrei Makarov — Head of the State Duma Budget Committee (comment referenced)
  • Host/Interviewers (RBC Radio) — multiple unnamed speakers in the studio (not individually identified in the subtitles)

Original video