الاجتماع اليومى لشركه اسباير لتداول الاوراق الماليه والسندات جلسه يوم 28-09-2026

Finance-focused summary (EGX daily market update — Sep 28, 2026)

Market regime / liquidity

• Trading value was ~7.9 billion, described as very low and continuing to fall, confirming an ongoing downward correction trend.
• The speaker’s framework: the “decline / rebound” assessment is only updated after a rebound actually begins (i.e., not just intraday attempts).

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Key index levels & tactical outlook (EGX 30 focus, EGX 70 secondary)

EGX 30 (benchmark for market direction)

• Core decision zone: 52,000–52,500, highlighted as representing ~61% of the total rise from 49,700.
• Peak / reference: 56,930 (mentioned as the highest point in the period).
• Pattern/rationale: a “hidden shoulder” / target aligns with a Fibonacci-based target landing around 52,500.
• Recent price action referenced around:
  • 52,700 (Thursday session low)
  • 52,950 (retraced)
  • Hammer close / support behavior at/near this area
• If 52,500 fails (breakdown):
  • Expect retest ~51,500, and then potentially 51 and 49,700.
• Medium-term investor risk trigger:
  • A break of 49,700 is described as a stop-loss zone for the medium-term view.
  • Also noted: the 200-day moving average is in that same zone, making it “critical.”
• If 52,500 holds:
  • Retest risk/targets: 54,500
  • “Trigger” level for momentum: 55,400 (near the 20-day moving average)
  • “Halfway” reference: ~54.5

EGX 70 (underperformance / not yet reached target)

• Problem: EGX 70 “hasn’t had enough decline” yet.
• EGX 70 move this session:
  • EGX 70 down ~4%
  • EGX 30 down ~1%
  • EGX 70 cited around 17,700 (also referred to as ~18.5 in context)
• Key levels:
  • Trigger / stop-loss logic:
    • Trigger: ~20,900 (crossing it suggests the decline “fully ends”)
    • Most important level: ~20.50
  • If both indices break (worst case):
    • Continued decline toward support levels from June 29, 2026
    • Speaker references 17700 and a 52 alignment
• Symmetry with EGX 30:
  • The 6000 level (Sharia/indicator-related discussion) is said to be equivalent to:
    • 52.5 (EGX 30 equivalence)
    • 17,700 (EGX 70 equivalence)

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Macro / indicator notes

• A “Sharia indicator” is mentioned:
  • It broke the stop-loss set at 6,500, changing how levels are measured going into the next phase (references “from day 9 / 296” and then 6,000 as key).

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“Benchmark” stocks singled out (liquidity/weight impact)

Commercial International Bank (CIB?) / Commercial Bank

• Cited as the “most important” weight affecting broader index behavior.
• Price/levels:
  • 12,620 = low of June 29
  • Near the 20-day moving average (~12,640 / 126.40 mentioned)
  • Current area referenced around 128.70 (contextual/possibly different unit phrasing)
• Scenarios:
  • If break below 12,620 / 126 → bearish follow-through likely.
  • If 126 holds → sideways then possible rebound.
  • Resistance/trigger if holding:
    • First resistance: 131
    • Trigger: 134.5
• Practical caution:
  • Don’t treat a sharp move in one stock as a complete market signal; it’s framed as a read on the banking sector’s recovery and broader index dynamics.

“Abu Dhabi” (security not perfectly clear by ticker)

• Stop-loss area:
  • 51–90 stated as the stop-loss zone, then clarified as below the “hammer tail” around 49 (speaker references 49 pounds).
• Rebound confirmation:
  • Positive signal: break above 52.40
  • Upside targets: 54.30 (and linkage to EGX 30 levels: ~55,000 / ~54k)
• If it fails to reclaim 49 → rebound probability diminishes.

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Step-by-step / decision framework (repeated)

• Step 1: Identify key index support/resistance
  • EGX 30: 52,000–52,500
  • EGX 70: ~17,700 (“needs more decline”)
• Step 2: Wait for confirmation via break / reclaim
  • Breakdown → retest lower supports
  • Reclaim → retest upper resistance
• Step 3: Use “trigger” levels (often moving averages)
  • EGX 30 trigger: 55,400 (20-day MA reference)
  • EGX 70 trigger: 20,900
• Step 4: For individual stocks, trade by stop-loss and hammer/shadow retests
  • If support/hammer shadow breaks → expect further downside
  • If hammer holds → rebound possible, but only with reclaim of key levels
• Step 5: Market-wide interpretation
  • When one sector/leader recovers (e.g., banks), other laggards may follow (“role reversal in corrections”).

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Individual stock notes (tickers/companies + key levels)

The speaker provides many price levels; below are the most explicit ones.

Energy / industrials / resources (selected)

• CD (mining/resource context)
  • Broke stop-loss at 17.5 and the 200-day MA → bearish
  • Resistance: 16.80, then 17.5
  • Support/base referenced around 15.80
  • If no improvement: look for back above 17
• Abu Air (Egyptian Aviation?)
  • Broke 20-day MA ~90 → testing 86.70
  • Stop-loss: 86.70
  • Needs reclaim above 91 for improvement
• Mobco (company mentioned around these levels)
  • Stuck at 45
  • Stop-loss: 45.20
  • Trigger behavior noted around 47
• Iron & steel / mines
  • Move toward 18/8/18/8 ruler target, closed 8.20
  • Stop-loss earlier set at 9
  • Major bearish invalidation zone discussed: 8.20, then 7.60 → 6.95
• Aluminum
  • Stop-loss: 340
  • Improvement linked to breaking above 367

Telecom / construction / real estate (selected)

• CIB (Commercial Bank)
  • See “Benchmark” section: 12,620 / 131 / 134.5
• Emaar
  • Critical reclaim level tied to breaking 61%
  • References:
    • Close around 12.97
    • Failure path: 12.30 → 11.50
• Madinet Misr / Housing
  • Broke stop-loss at 7.45
  • Needs reclaim to improve; references 7.75 / 7.83
• Heliopolis
  • Stop-loss earlier: 7.83 (broken)
  • If not reclaimed, could drop toward 7.00 / 7.34 (sideways range)
• Palm Hills
  • Stop-loss updated to 1,270
• Rascom for Development
  • Mentions levels around 39 → 40.25, then 39.10 stop reference

Cement / construction materials (selected)

• Arab Cement
  • Broke 61% at ~69 (61% retracement of a rise from 55 → 91)
  • Targets: 60–62, then 60, then 55
  • If it doesn’t reclaim: lowest point mentioned 74
• Telecom Egypt
  • Potential support zone near ~100
  • Stop-loss logic: if breaks 100, set stop around 130 (instead of 128)
  • If breaks 130 → could follow down like “Elsewedy”
  • Target references:
    • “Below” target around 105.25
    • If it doesn’t break 130: rebound toward 140 still possible

Tobacco / housing / “leading stocks” logic (selected)

• Talaat Mustafa
  • Near 200-day moving average, broke 92 → negative
  • Needs reclaim above 92.70
  • Dangerous support: 88 EGP
  • If breaks: only base remains around 74 EGP
• Elsewedy
  • Mentioned as a comparative example for downside behavior after a break.

Miscellaneous watchlist-style mentions

• Oriental Weavers
  • Stop-loss still 26.5
  • Avoid increasing positions until 28.60
• Alexandria Container Handling
  • Key watch/support: 32; if breaks, another retest
  • Possible rebound target: 34.70 while above 30.70
• Beltone
  • Broke key level 2.80 (medium-term low)
  • Next major level: long-term range lower boundary 2.66
  • If above: resistance 2.87
  • Strength signal above 3 pounds

(Many other names were referenced, but unit/price formatting is inconsistent in places; the explicit stops/targets above are the ones most clearly stated.)

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Explicit recommendations / cautions

• Position sizing caution: do not increase positions unless prices reclaim specific levels (speaker cites examples such as Palm Hills / Delta Sugar / multiple names under support).
• Stop-loss discipline: trades are conditional—if the stop breaks (often below hammer shadow or key MAs), downside is expected.
• No “optimistic” call without confirmation: rebound odds are valid only after breaks/reclaims actually occur.
• Bearish continuation risk: if major index supports break:
  • EGX 30: breakdown of 52,500 then 49,700
  • EGX 70: if it continues to break targets below ~17,700, both indices may extend declines.

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Disclosures / meeting validity (as stated)

• Meeting held by Spire Securities and Bonds Trading Company.
• Content is described as believed correct by the company; not responsible for fees.
• Valid only for today.

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Ahmed Saad (from Hedof Trading)
• Spire Securities and Bonds Trading Company (hosting the daily meeting)