Bitcoin Returns Under Various US Presidents

Overview

The video argues that Bitcoin’s performance across different U.S. presidential terms shows repeating, cycle-like patterns driven more by macroeconomic conditions than by politics.

Key claims and comparisons across presidencies

Early terms (Obama 2013 vs. Trump 2017)

• Bitcoin’s price path under Obama (2013) and Trump (2017) is described as relatively similar.
• There is some underperformance during Trump’s first term compared with Obama.

Middle vs. later terms (Obama’s second term vs. Trump’s first term)

• Even though the paths differ, overall returns converge.
• The convergence is attributed to Bitcoin’s surge near the end of Trump’s first term, producing an end-state similar to Obama’s second term.

Recent terms (Biden vs. Trump’s second term)

• Biden’s term and Trump’s second term are said to look similar in outcomes.
• Bitcoin is described as stalled, with:
  • a summer stall
  • a small counter-trend rally (late July / early August)
  • a selloff
  • a final drop
• After that, the video suggests Bitcoin transitions into the next bull-market phase.

Specific quantitative point

After ~524 days in each presidency, Bitcoin’s return is said to be nearly the same:

• Under Biden: -43.8%
• Under Trump: -41.1%

The presenter uses this to argue that short-term political differences don’t necessarily produce major differences in Bitcoin’s medium-term performance.

Macro explanation (why political framing may be misleading)

The video attributes changes in Bitcoin behavior primarily to macro shifts, including:

• Inflation pressure
  • described as less concerning in earlier periods referenced
  • more relevant in later periods
• Unemployment trends
• The pandemic is acknowledged, but is described as not causing a durable increase in unemployment

Takeaway: When macro conditions worsen (or increase uncertainty), higher-risk assets like Bitcoin underperform—but that does not mean they won’t recover later.

Dollar (DXY) as a recurring headwind pattern

The presenter claims the U.S. dollar’s (DXY) behavior across presidencies mirrors similar timing and phases:

• During Trump’s second term, the dollar is described as rising in a manner comparable to how it behaved during Trump’s first term after he took office.
• The video suggests the dollar may rise toward roughly 105–106, acting as a macro headwind for crypto later in the year.

Forward-looking conclusion

If the pattern continues to mirror prior cycles, the presenter expects:

• Bitcoin to bottom later in the year
• Then begin the next bull market into 2027

Presenters / contributors

• Benjamin Cowen (named in the conference/branding and implied as the video’s speaker)