Только ДВА актива приносят пассивный доход

Core claim / thesis

• Only two asset classes have historically delivered returns significantly above inflation over long horizons:
  • Stocks (shares/equities)
  • Real estate (residential and commercial)
• Many “passive income” approaches (e.g., bank deposits, bonds, bills, liquidity funds, gold, cryptocurrency) are argued to be not reliably sufficient in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, particularly for living off capital over decades.

Passive income vs real returns (key argument)

• Deposits may appear to generate income, but over long periods the real (after-inflation) return can approach ~0.
• It’s possible for deposits to beat inflation over short windows, but other periods may deliver negative real yields, meaning you’d need additional capital to maintain spending.
• The emphasis is on “full profit” over the long run—not only dividends/coupons/interest.

Step-by-step / framework mentioned (practical allocation logic)

When targeting to live off capital, the portfolio’s main exposure should be directed to:

1. Stocks
2. Real estate

Everything else (e.g., deposits, bonds, gold, crypto, liquidity products) is positioned as:

• Supplemental for diversification, not a true long-term “passive income engine.”

Rebalancing / flexibility:

• Prefer stocks as the main allocation because they are easier to trade and allow withdrawal flexibility year-to-year.

Evidence & comparisons (numbers and benchmarks cited)

Gold (as an example of a non-core asset)

Over 150+ years, gold is described as:

• Very volatile
• Periodically experiencing real drawdowns >50%
• Sometimes taking decades to recover
• Having experienced ~30+ year stretches with near-zero real returns

A cited example:

• Over an approximately 20-year span, gold increased >3x in real terms, but implied average return was <1% per annum real, attributed to the long time horizon.

Bonds & deposits (high nominal returns, potential real issue)

• In Russia “today,” deposits/bonds are claimed to yield ~5–10% per annum above inflation.
• Caution: such levels likely won’t persist.
• Planning only for a “couple of years” is presented as risky.

Therefore:

• The speaker plans long-term and says they are “stuck” to stocks, recently adding real estate.

Real estate example & performance metrics (specific figures)

Commercial real estate via platform (Simple Estate)

The speaker promotes a commercial real estate platform and provides performance/activity metrics:

• Properties leased to supermarkets with 10–15 year long-term contracts
  • Mentioned tenants: Pyaterochka, Magnit, Perekrestok
• Minimum investment: 100,000 rubles
• Claimed oversight/governance:
  • Platform operating under control of the Central Bank of Russia for 6 years
  • Founder: former investment analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Track record / scale:
  • Real estate portfolio: 2 billion rubles
  • Investors: 1,000
• Yield claims:
  • Current rental yield: 8–10% per annum
  • Historical total yield: 19% per annum (including property value increase)
• Portfolio selection claim:
  • Identified as roughly “~1% of the market” as reliable/high-quality with growth potential
• Risk acknowledgement:
  • “There is, of course, risk,” but it is positioned as investing in tangible assets (“bricks and mortar”).

Residential real estate volatility (risk example with numbers)

• Russia secondary residential property:
  • Example: 2011 saw prices fall by ~25% inflation-adjusted in a single calendar year
  • Many properties allegedly fell further by 30–40%
• Real estate volatility:
  • Real estate inflation-adjusted drawdowns commonly in double digits
  • Real estate volatility described as higher than the Russian bond market
• 2013–2017:
  • “5 years of continuous losses”
  • Secondary housing down >1/3 in real terms
  • Not back to peak; real prices still below end-2008

Turkey / Antalya liquidity risk story:

• Some properties experienced drawdowns up to ~50%
• Liquidity described as poor because buyers must pay full amounts immediately (mortgages scarce due to high interest rates)

Personal Istanbul rental estimate

The speaker references a deal:

• Two-bedroom apartment near central Istanbul
• Net expected rental income after:
  • fees, minor repairs, taxes, downtime, and potential issues
• Result:
  • a little over 4% per annum, excluding depreciation and excluding appreciation

Additional claim:

• If living in the same property personally, “savings” could reach about ~6% per year of pure benefit, via:
  • avoiding downtime/manager commissions/income taxes
  • lower tenant default risk

Stocks vs real estate (taxes/fees and “net real return” estimates)

Net real returns discussion for global equities

• Historical global stocks real return cited:
  • ~5% per annum in real terms (noted as “gross” before expenses)
• Then deduct:
  • fund management losses, dividend withholding, taxes at multiple levels, rebalancing costs
• Total drag cited:
  • roughly ~1% per year from expenses (open + hidden)
• Additional drag:
  • capital gains tax upon selling at profit in the residence country

ETFs route:

• If in the EU or non-Russian citizenship: use Irish ETFs instead of US structures (lower taxes due to treaties)

Net expectation (after inflation and costs):

• Realistically ~4% per annum for global equities.

Russia cost framing

• Costs in Russia are described as also around ~1% per year.
• Taxes are described as high on dividends or absorbed via fund-level costs, but said to be comparable overall.

Expected return premium vs risk

• Russian equities:
  • Potentially higher expected return due to higher risks and difficulty attracting foreign capital
• Real estate:
  • The argument is “no worse or better” in the Russian context:
    • real estate yield may be lower, but perceived capital risk is lower

Diversification & portfolio construction guidance

• Real estate risk is argued to be underestimated because it “feels” tangible, yet:
  • price drawdowns can occur
  • liquidity can be problematic
• Stocks offer:
  • easier lot-size access
  • better diversification potential

“Market value” intuition:

• Real estate is described as approximately comparable in capitalization to globally traded stocks/bonds:
  • the speaker claims people hold roughly half in stock markets and half in real estate (with margin of error).

Allocation tilt:

• The speaker says they may aim for similar proportions later, though they are not yet at their “acceptable security/spending” stage.

Liquidity and withdrawal planning

• Stocks are positioned as better for:
  • liquidity
  • withdrawing different amounts in different years (“sometimes more, sometimes less”)
• Real estate for living:
  • If staying permanently in the same property, real estate can outperform by delivering more “pure profit” via saved expenses vs the effort of renting.

Explicit recommendations / bottom line (stated)

• Bottom line:
  • Only two asset classes deliver significant real returns over the long term: shares and real estate.
  • For “living off capital,” these should form the core.
  • Other assets are only add-ons for diversification—useful especially in crises/uncertainty, but not as the main passive income engine.
• Risk framing:
  • The premium from stocks/real estate is described as the price of risk.

Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “financial advice” disclaimer appears in the provided subtitles.
• The speaker does acknowledge risk generally (“there is, of course, risk”).

Tickers / instruments / assets mentioned

• Asset classes: stocks (shares/equities), real estate (residential & commercial), deposits, bonds, bills, liquidity funds, gold, cryptocurrency, ETFs (notably Irish ETFs), mutual funds.
• Tenants / companies (real-estate lease counterparties):
  • Pyaterochka, Magnit, Perekrestok
• No specific stock tickers were provided in the subtitles.

Presenters / sources (mentioned)

• Platform founder: former investment analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Oversight/regulator mentioned: Central Bank of Russia
• Companies mentioned for leases: Pyaterochka, Magnit, Perekrestok
• Presenter: not explicitly named in the subtitles.