ВАССЕРМАН: ГДЕ ЗАКОНЧИТСЯ СВО И ЧТО БУДЕТ С УКРАИНОЙ

Summary of Key Arguments and Commentary

1) Media, propaganda, and the “peace through stability” framing

• Valery Chumakov begins by discussing copyright/quote usage, then pivots to a news example he frames as an instance of propaganda logic.
• He responds to Germany’s decision to award the Westphalian Peace Prize to NATO, arguing that the slogan “peace through stability” is contradictory—NATO is portrayed as a driver of conflict rather than peace.
• Anatoly Vasermann broadens the point: propaganda, he argues, works by sustaining lies with bigger lies. He references George Orwell (“war is peace”) and claims Orwell’s depictions were grounded in real propaganda practice, including references to the BBC.
• They further argue that Western audiences accept such narratives because it is profitable for them—implying the public is willing to be misled.

2) Nobel Peace Prize as political cynicism

• Vasermann suggests the Nobel Peace Prize can also reflect political motives rather than genuine achievements.
• He speculates whether Donald Trump might win that year, arguing that when prizes are tied to political outcomes, it becomes easier to claim some previous laureates received recognition without clear concrete reasons.

3) EU “decay,” internal contradictions, and possible restructuring

Chumakov notes developments seen as weakening the EU, including:

• Germany demanding a large cut to the EU’s 7-year budget
• Hungary and Slovakia refusing to join aid to Ukraine

Vasermann characterizes these developments as a warning sign and describes Brussels-style governance as “bureaucracy” that pressures states while they tolerate it.

When asked whether the EU has a “point of no return,” Vasermann predicts:

• The EU is unlikely to suddenly collapse; instead, it will likely undergo a long, oscillatory process.
• States may not fully liquidate the EU, but attempt to reformat it, possibly returning to earlier, looser models. He cites the European Coal and Steel Community as an “ideal” historical precedent.
• He explains why the Coal and Steel model worked: it did not eliminate conflict overnight, but redirected competition over key industries (coal, steel regions such as Ruhr and Alsace-Lorraine) into a joint-use framework.

4) Who might leave the EU—and what could replace it

• Vasermann argues that any breakup would likely yield large coordinated economic structures, not merely a return to many fully separate national states.
• He uses BRICS as an example of a common-interest framework that could function reliably, while claiming BRICS countries are not economically “too similar” in a way that would constantly trigger competition.
• For sectoral integration (e.g., autos), he doubts it could persist as a political “union,” arguing that market competition and different business niches would undermine stability.

5) Trump, Xi, and attempts to “split” coalitions

• The hosts discuss Xi’s visit to the White House and whether Trump is attempting to detach China from Russia.
• Vasermann argues that durable cooperation depends on mutual interests, not public statements; he claims efforts to break ties are unlikely to succeed.

6) Germany’s political shift and sanctions skepticism

• The discussion turns to the rise in popularity of Germany’s alternative (implied to be AfD) and why mainstream narratives are losing credibility (migration, energy policy, and anti-Russian positioning).
• Vasermann suggests that even if such an alternative gained influence, it would likely not quickly change policy due to governance constraints and coalition bargaining.
• He claims voters are increasingly doubtful because they see contradictions and political “lying,” illustrating this with a joke about liars gesturing with their lips and applying it to politicians’ rhetoric.

7) War commentary: “Geranium” drones, ballistic missile capabilities, and Ukraine’s role

In the SVO battlefield context:

• Chumakov mentions new drone variants:
  • “Geranium-4”
  • “Hera-3” with jet engines
• Vasermann says they resemble cruise missiles because of higher speed (around 800 km/h).
• He dismisses the idea that they are just “recycled” Iranian Shahed drones as a “Western legend,” though he concedes that aerodynamic design can create visual similarities. He argues that changing to an engine also requires broader design modifications (e.g., wings and fuselage).
• On Ukraine’s claims about future ballistic missile tests, Vasermann argues Ukraine cannot recreate such systems because the industrial capacity and technical know-how were tied to Soviet/Russian structures—requiring restoration of the country that originally developed them.
• He frames Russia’s approach as strategically aimed at destroying Ukraine’s military and industrial structure, making promised new weapons less likely to materialize.

8) Humanitarian claims and the purpose of destruction

Vasermann addresses criticism that Russia is condemning Ukrainians to suffering (winter cold, hunger), asserting:

• Ukrainians are portrayed as part of the broader Russian people.
• Russia’s actions are claimed to be less costly overall than the losses produced by the “terrorist organization” (a term used for the Ukrainian regime).
• He argues that Western “employers” of Ukrainian forces are indifferent to Ukrainian civilian suffering, prioritizing reducing Russians rather than protecting Ukrainians.

9) Future settlement: forced separation, pro-Russian presidents, and reconciliation

• Vasermann argues that keeping Ukraine separate from Russia would ultimately require force, and that leaders insisting on separateness would be acting against the interests of their own citizens.
• He anticipates that after the conflict ends, the main challenge will be dealing with “Russophobia.” He proposes confronting misinformation and holding accountable journalism that helped shape these views (attributing this to a remark by Lev Vershinin).
• He states that meaningful rebuilding—such as in Odessa—would be possible, but would require sustained effort.

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Presenters / Contributors

• Anatoly Alexandrovich Vasermann (guest)
• Valery Chumakov (host/columnist, “Soyuznye Vechi” newspaper)