All This has Happened Before, All of This Will Happen Again.

Finance-focused summary (collectibles market as an investment cycle)

Thesis / analogy

The speaker argues that the collectibles market is repeating the same boom–bust cycle seen around 2021. They point to recurring themes such as:

• Price surges
• Grading-company policy changes (e.g., submission slowdowns and fee/price adjustments)
• Category rotation after certain segments cool off
• Hype/FOMO dynamics driving short-term demand

Current posture

They emphasize they don’t know whether this is a new bubble, repeatedly comparing today’s behavior to COVID-era 2021 conditions.

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“Evidence” timeline referenced (as claimed in the video)

The video describes that the creator’s prior uploads share similar narratives, with dates clustered mostly around early 2021:

• Dec 14, 2020 – Sports card market hype context (referenced via video library)
• Jan 19, 2021 – “LeBron / Jordan / Kobe” card markets “on fire”
• Jan 21, 2021 – Basketball box prices cited: “$1,200” (framed as Donruss/Wax “lost its mind”)
• Feb 2, 2021 – “Evil investors vs pure collectors” (community conflict theme)
• Feb 1, 2021 – Marvel trading card market “on fire”; 1990 Marvel Universe pop
• Feb 10, 2021 – Beckett price increases to slow submissions (premium service changes)
• Feb 15, 2021 – “Trading cards exploding in price” across multiple IPs
• Feb 24, 2021 – PSA price increases coming (massive increase intended to slow submissions)
• Late Feb / shortly after takeover – PSA price increase narrative tied to ownership change (Nat Turner referenced) and backlash
• Mar 30, 2021 – PSA shuts down submission levels except Super Express

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What’s “different this time” (as claimed)

• Less extreme “pop-off” tied to single rookies Example used: Talon Horton Tucker as a past hype-driven explosion.

• Capital is flowing more toward “end-user” cards Emphasis on premium, established stars rather than easily substitutable lower-tier “junk.”

• “Safer” targets are highlighted The speaker focuses on elite established players, implying relative resilience if a bubble bursts.

Examples of end-user / top-tier card mentions (not exhaustive)

• NBA
  • 2009 Kobe / LeBron refractor
  • Kobe Stardate
  • Jordan insert
• Baseball
  • Griffey, Ohtani
  • Mentions of PSA 10 base prism / silver prism style pricing examples (basketball pricing context noted)
• Sports star tiering logic
  • Top tier: Jordan / Kobe / LeBron / Griffey / Brady-type names
  • Next tier: “goat-minus ones” / steroid-era (e.g., Payton Manning referenced as well as Bonds, Maguire, Frank Thomas)

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Key valuation / price references mentioned

(Important: mostly anecdotal examples rather than systematic pricing.)

• DeAndre Hunter example (earlier boom)
  • ~$70 per card for PSA 10 base prism / silver prism / Star stock A’s (example)
• “Next tier” expectations (sports)
  • Potential increases expected for:
    • Payton Manning
    • Frank Thomas
    • Barry Bonds
    • Mark McGwire (steroid-era)
• Pop culture watchlist / sale reaction
  • The speaker adds items to a watch list after a Spider-Man PSA 9 sale ends, then watches rapid selling (“sold, sold, sold”).
• High-end pop culture transactions (specific examples)
  • Robert Downey Jr Writtenhouse Auto National 8K (AF-15 mindset referenced)
    • A “masked” version sold around $8,000–$8,500
    • A 2008 Inscription sold for ~$10K (speaker notes the card was raw in that $10K example)
• Purchase behavior driven by scarcity / FOMO
  • Black Lotus purchase (placed in a specialized holder)
  • AF-15 mention: fear of being priced out permanently (“getting an AF-15”)

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Sector/category rotation described (market structure)

How the cycle is mapped

The speaker describes the cycle as category hopping after price spikes.

• COVID bubble framing (sports → priced out → pop culture):
  • Sports cards boom first
  • Then buyers get “priced out,” prompting rotation
• Current phase framing:
  • “Goats / best stars” lead first in sports
  • Pokemon is described as slowing relative to others
  • Pop culture is described as heating up rapidly

Pop culture categories/IPs explicitly mentioned

• Spider-Man (PSA 9 sale referenced)
• Marvel (including 1966 and broader “early tops”)
• Star Wars
• WWF
• G.I. Joe
• He-Man
• Nintendo characters / Nintendo stuff
• Disney cards (“insane right now”)
• Magic the Gathering (noted alongside “Pokemon and Magic the Gathering were going nuts”)

(The Simpsons are mentioned as “not mentioned,” i.e., explicitly excluded.)

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Methodology / framework (implied, not a formal investing model)

No formal step-by-step algorithm is provided, but the speaker uses a behavioral/market framework:

• Cycle repetition check
  • Compare current headlines/titles to the creator’s archived videos (2021 vs now).
• Identify demand drivers
  • Grading-company policy (PSA/Beckett price increases, submission slowdowns)
  • Premium end-user demand vs junkwax/substitute demand
  • FOMO triggered by standout sales (e.g., Spider-Man PSA 9)
• Assess resilience via target selection
  • Prefer established stars with full careers
  • Avoid lower-tier “replaceable” hype
• Expect trickle-down within a tier ladder
  • Top-tier sells first → next tier (“goat minus ones”) rises next Example tier names cited: Payton Manning, Bonds, Maguire, Frank Thomas

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Explicit cautions / uncertainty / risk notes

• No definitive call:

  “Are we in another bubble? I have no freaking idea.”

• Uncertainty emphasized repeatedly:

  “I don’t have a crystal ball.”

• FOMO risk: The speaker warns it becomes scary when people buy not because they want the items, but because they think they can flip quickly.

• Not financial advice: No formal “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles provided.

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Instruments / brands / tickers mentioned

Traditional financial tickers

• None mentioned.

Collectibles platforms/brands

• PSA (grading; policy changes like price increases and submission restrictions)
• Beckett (grading; service price increases)
• Fanatics (mentioned in community conflict context)
• Startock (mentioned as a place where Talon Horton Tucker cards were bought)
• The Penny Slever (grading supply sponsor/affiliate; no market role described)

Collectibles categories/IPs

• Sports cards: NBA, baseball, and stars such as Kobe, LeBron, Jordan, Griffey, Ohtani, Brady
• Pop culture: Marvel (incl. 1966 and Spider-Man), Star Wars, WWF, G.I. Joe, He-Man, Disney, Nintendo

Card/collectible example names

• Black Lotus (Magic: The Gathering; cited as a high-end example)

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Presenters / sources mentioned (as referenced at the end)

• Battlestar Galactica (quoted; “modern version” referenced)
• Joshua Bayas (spelled “Bayas” in subtitles; referenced as an example from earlier hype)
• Nat Turner (referenced regarding PSA ownership/timing)
• Brian Gray (mentioned via “Professor’s Hobby Collision”)
• Steve Flipping Steve (referenced for a watchlist/90s inserts purchase story)
• “Professor’s Hobby Collision” (podcast/channel)
• The Penny Slever (video sponsor)