ماذا بعد قرار مجلس الأمن الصادر في 30 أكتوبر حول الصحراء الغربية.؟

Summary

The program examines the Security Council’s failure to renew MINURSO’s mandate and the competing reactions to the vote. The presenter says Russia vetoed a US-backed draft, while a Russian draft to extend the mission did not secure enough votes.

Morocco welcomed the outcome and called for MINURSO to leave. The Polisario Front also welcomed the rejection of the US draft, arguing that it would have weakened the UN peace process. The UN Secretary-General’s spokesperson, as quoted in the program, stressed that the people of Western Sahara retain their right to self-determination even if the mission departs.

The Security Council vote and self-determination

Guest journalist Abu Bakr Jamaï argued that the US proposal went too far, particularly by reducing the prominence of self-determination and suggesting that negotiations include Sahrawi groups beyond the Polisario. He viewed Russia’s veto, along with China’s position, as evidence that support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal has limits. In his view, both powers may accept autonomy as a possible basis for a settlement, but want self-determination and negotiations involving the Polisario to remain central.

Jamaï cautioned against treating the 11 votes in favor of the US draft as proof of broad international or legal recognition. He pointed to the UN General Assembly and its Fourth Committee as continuing forums for the issue.

Morocco’s response and diplomatic standing

Jamaï questioned Morocco’s celebratory response. He suggested Rabat may be seeking to move away from multilateral UN processes and toward bilateral diplomacy, but warned that this would not establish Moroccan sovereignty under international law or resolve legal challenges to investment and trade in the territory.

He argued that Morocco’s diplomatic gains would be more credible if accompanied by democratic institutions, genuine Sahrawi representation, and respect for human rights. Contrasting elected representation with appointed bodies such as CORCAS, he said that a lack of meaningful participation can erode Sahrawi trust in Morocco’s autonomy proposal.

US policy and regional dynamics

The guest warned that the US approach could reflect a Trump-style preference for pressure and bilateral power over international institutions. He predicted that a future US administration might place greater emphasis on the UN and renew pressure on both Morocco and the Polisario to reach a negotiated, acceptable autonomy arrangement.

Jamaï said Morocco should not assume its current international support is permanent or that its ties with the US and Israel guarantee a strategic advantage over Algeria.

Risk of renewed conflict

Jamaï said a full-scale war was not inevitable and would likely be opposed by outside powers with interests in regional stability, though he acknowledged that escalation remained possible. He warned that a prolonged political stalemate and lack of international attention could strengthen hard-line voices and increase the risk of violence.

He called for public scrutiny of decisions on the Sahara, arguing that political parties and citizens are largely excluded from shaping policy. He also cautioned against using appeals to national unity to suppress debate.

Presenters and contributors

• Rachid El Younoussi — presenter
• Abu Bakr Jamaï — guest journalist and commentator